比特币价格预测：2025 年会上涨还是下跌？

这是加密货币独裁者喜欢玩的室内预测游戏。 2024年即将结束，业界大咖再次分享他们对新的一年的猜想。

Crypto executives aren’t crypto pessimists. After devoting their careers to the industry, how could they be?

加密货币高管并不是加密货币悲观主义者。把自己的事业奉献给这个行业之后，他们又会怎样呢？

Still, compared to over-the-moon Bitcoin price predictions for 2024, Arthur Hayes, VanEck, and Bitwise were bearish.

尽管如此，与 2024 年比特币价格的过度预测相比，Arthur Hayes、VanEck 和 Bitwise 仍持悲观态度。

Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and the founder of family office Maelstrom Fund, predicted in October 2023 that Bitcoin would rise to around $70,000 by the end of 2024.

加密货币交易所 BitMEX 联合创始人、家族办公室 Maelstrom Fund 创始人 Hayes 在 2023 年 10 月预测，到 2024 年底，比特币将升至 7 万美元左右。

Bitwise, the institutional crypto investment firm, said in its end-of-year note in 2023 that it expected Bitcoin to trade above $80,000 and set a new all-time high.

机构加密投资公司 Bitwise 在 2023 年年终报告中表示，预计比特币交易价格将突破 8 万美元，并创下历史新高。

And analysts from VanEck, the financial firm that has waded into crypto, predicted in December 2023 that Bitcoin would hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024. They did not provide a price target.

涉足加密领域的金融公司 VanEck 的分析师在 2023 年 12 月预测，比特币将在 2024 年第四季度创下历史新高。他们没有提供价格目标。

With their more carefully worded predictions, Bitwise and VanEck proved to be correct. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Bitcoin did hit all-time highs and crossed $100,000 for the first time.

Bitwise 和 VanEck 的预测被证明是正确的。 2024 年第四季度，比特币确实创下历史新高，首次突破 10 万美元。

And while Hayes underestimated Bitcoin’s forthcoming bull run, that doesn’t mean he’s bearish.

虽然海耶斯低估了比特币即将到来的牛市，但这并不意味着他看跌。

By the end of 2026, Bitcoin will hit somewhere between $750,000 and $1 million, he proclaimed.

他宣称，到 2026 年底，比特币价格将达到 75 万至 100 万美元。

Bulls

公牛队

Tim Draper, Standard Chartered, or Matrixport tapped into the hopium slightly more than Hayes, VanEck and Bitwise.

渣打银行 (Standard Chartered) 或 Matrixport 的 Tim Draper 的投入略多于 Hayes、VanEck 和 Bitwise。

In 2018, Draper, a prominent venture capital investor, predicted that Bitcoin would rocket to $250,000 in 2022.

2018 年，著名风险投资家 Draper 预测，比特币将在 2022 年飙升至 25 万美元。

Bitcoin didn’t hit the quarter-million mark that year, so, in January 2023, he said the cryptocurrency would rise to $250,000 by the end of the year.

比特币当年并未突破 25 万大关，因此，2023 年 1 月，他表示这种加密货币到年底将升至 25 万美元。

Bitcoin failed to comply, but Draper wasn’t deterred.

比特币未能遵守规定，但德雷珀并没有被吓倒。

In April 2024, he again re-upped his prediction and proclaimed that, on the heels of momentum from the launch of spot exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin would finally reach $250,000 by the end of 2024.

2024年4月，他再次重申了自己的预测，并宣称，在现货交易所交易基金推出的势头下，比特币最终将在2024年底达到25万美元。

In November, Draper backtracked and said Bitcoin would hit $120,000 by December.

11 月，Draper 反悔称，到 12 月，比特币将达到 12 万美元。

Similarly, an analyst at Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform, predicted in July 2023 that Bitcoin would rise to $125,000 by 2024.

同样，加密金融服务平台 Matrixport 的分析师在 2023 年 7 月预测，到 2024 年，比特币将升至 125,000 美元。

And analysts at Standard Chartered, one of the UK’s biggest banks, first forecast that Bitcoin’s price would rise to $120,000 in 2024, then $150,000, before finally settling on $125,000.

英国最大银行之一渣打银行的分析师首先预测，比特币的价格将在 2024 年升至 12 万美元，然后是 15 万美元，最后确定为 12.5 万美元。

While not far off, Draper, Matrixport, and Standard Chartered overshot Bitcoin’s ending price in 2024 by about $20,000.

Draper、Matrixport 和渣打银行在 2024 年的最终价格比比特币的最终价格高出约 20,000 美元，虽然差距并不遥远。

Dreamers

梦想家

Can a crypto exec overdose on “hopium?”

加密货币高管是否可以过量服用“hopium”？

Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and Mike Novogratz have tried.

凯西·伍德 (Cathie Wood)、迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 和迈克·诺沃格拉茨 (Mike Novogratz) 都曾尝试过。

In 2021, Novogratz, the CEO of the crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, proclaimed that, in 2024, Bitcoin would hit $500,000.

2021 年，加密货币投资公司 Galaxy Digital 首席执行官诺沃格拉茨 (Novogratz) 宣称，到 2024 年，比特币将达到 50 万美元。

But in March, he said, in one of the more accurate predictions of the year, that Bitcoin would hit $100,000.

但在 3 月份，他在今年最准确的预测之一中表示，比特币将达到 10 万美元。

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, the investment firm that has gobbled up crypto stocks and cryptocurrency, has been more bullish.

Cathie Wood 的 ARK Invest 是一家投资公司，该公司一直在买入加密股票和加密货币，该公司的态度更为乐观。

The firm has said Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030.

该公司表示，到 2026 年，比特币价格将达到 50 万美元，到 2030 年将达到 100 万美元。

But Wood and Novogratz pale in comparison to the laser-eyed Michael Saylor.

但与目光敏锐的迈克尔·塞勒相比，伍德和诺沃格拉茨显得苍白无力。

The founder and chairman of MicroStrategy has proclaimed that Bitcoin will hit $13 million a piece by 2045.

MicroStrategy 的创始人兼董事长宣称，到 2045 年，比特币的价格将达到每枚 1300 万美元。

Maybe Saylor will be right. Or maybe, like most other crypto executives, he’ll be way off the mark.

也许塞勒是对的。或者，像大多数其他加密货币高管一样，他可能会偏离目标。

Ben Weiss is DL News’ Dubai Correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at bweiss@dlnews.com.

Ben Weiss 是 DL News 的迪拜记者。有小费吗？给他发电子邮件：bweiss@dlnews.com。