比特幣的價格持續了一次波動性，將5％的價格降至80,000美元以下

比特幣的價格在周末遭受了另一場波動率，週日下跌了5％，低於80,000美元

Bitcoin (BTC) price endured another bout of volatility over the weekend, shedding 5% on Sunday to dip below the $80,000 mark, before settling near $82,000. This latest decline places the cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its all-time high of $109,900.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在周末持續了一次波動性，在周日下跌了5％，低於80,000美元的大關，然後定居接近82,000美元。最新的下降使加密貨幣低於其歷史最高高點109,900美元。

The downturn can be attributed to ongoing trade tensions, linked to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures, and the fears of a looming recession.

低迷可能歸因於持續的貿易緊張局勢，與唐納德·特朗普總統的最新關稅措施以及對迫在眉睫的衰退的擔憂有關。

However, a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen from 110 to 103 since mid-January, coinciding with Trump’s second term in office and could be a potential bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price.

但是，自1月中旬以來，美元指數（DXY）削弱了，該指數從110降至103，與特朗普的第二個任期相吻合，可能是比特幣價格的可能的看漲催化劑。

In a series of posts on X, Jamie Coutts, the Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, offers a look at the current market environment, highlighting two key metrics that could shape central bank policy—and, by extension, Bitcoin’s trajectory. “Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks,” Coutts writes.

在X上的一系列帖子中，Realvision的首席加密分析師Jamie Coutts提供了當前的市場環境，強調了兩個可以塑造中央銀行政策的關鍵指標，並擴展了比特幣的軌跡。 “比特幣就像在與中央銀行一起玩雞遊戲，”庫茨寫道。

He explained that while the dollar’s recent decline supports a bullish framework for Bitcoin, rising Treasury bond volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) and widening corporate bond spreads are causing concern: Coutts emphasized the role of US Treasuries as the global collateral asset. Any spike in their volatility, he argued, forces lenders to impose larger haircuts on collateral, tightening liquidity.

他解釋說，儘管美元最近的下降支持比特幣的看漲框架，債券債券的上升（按移動指數跟踪）和擴大公司債券的差異引起了人們的關注：Coutts強調了美國國債作為全球核心資產的作用。他認為，任何波動性的尖峰都迫使貸方在抵押品上施加更大的髮型，從而收緊流動性。

“Rising volatility forces lenders to apply haircuts on collateral, thereby tightening liquidity. […] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] and I suspect there will be a few concerns at the central planner levels.”

“隨著波動的上升迫使貸方在抵押品上應用髮型，從而收緊了流動性。 […]以上110 [移動指數]，我懷疑中央規劃師級別會有一些擔憂。”

Over the past three weeks, US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening, a shift Coutts views as a signal that risk assets—including Bitcoin—could face pressure.

在過去的三周中，美國投資級公司債券的價差一直在擴大，COUTTS的轉變視為一種信號，即風險資產（包括比特幣）可能會面臨壓力。

“This suggests that the demand keeping yields compressed relative to Treasuries is fading—and further widening could be negative for risk assets.”

“這表明，相對於國債的需求保持收益率正在逐漸消失，進一步擴大可能對風險資產負面。”

Despite these cautionary flags, Coutres remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects, primarily due to the dollar’s “rapid decline.” He noted that the dollar’s drop in March—one of the most significant monthly dips in 12 years—historically has coincided with bullish inflection points in Bitcoin’s price. According to his research, “They have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).”

儘管有這些警告的旗幟，但庫特雷斯仍然對比特幣的中期前景保持樂觀，這主要是由於美元的“迅速下降”。他指出，三月份的美元下降（12年來最重要的每月下降之一）在歷史上與比特幣價格的看漲拐點相吻合。根據他的研究，“它們都發生在比特幣熊市場槽（拐點）或中期牛市（趨勢延續）。”

While acknowledging the limited historical dataset for Bitcoin, Coutts also cited key catalysts he believes could propel the digital asset higher:

COUTT承認比特幣的歷史數據集有限，但他認為他認為可以推動數字資產更高的關鍵催化劑：

Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be “filling a big gap” and reiterated his view that a slide below the high-$70,000 range would signal a fundamental market shift. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers edging closer to possible intervention as Treasury volatility and credit spreads climb:

Coutts還提到比特幣似乎是“填補了很大的空白”，並重申了他的觀點，即高達70,000美元的幻燈片將標誌著基本的市場變化。同時，他認為中央銀行越來越接近可能的干預措施，因為國庫波動和信貸差異攀升：

“If Treasury volatility and bond spreads keep rising, asset prices will continue their decline. Meanwhile, this will likely push the central planners to act.”

“如果財政部的波動和債券利差不斷上升，資產價格將繼續下降。同時，這可能會促使中央計劃者採取行動。”

In closing, Coutts offered a concise summary of why he believes Bitcoin is effectively locked in a showdown with central banks:

結束時，庫特（Coutts）簡要摘要說明了為什麼他認為比特幣有效地鎖定了與中央銀行的攤牌：

“Think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling—and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged—the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner’s favor.”

“將比特幣視為與中央計劃者的高風險雞肉遊戲。隨著他們的選擇減少，並且假設霍德勒人仍然沒有掌握，那麼對比特幣所有者的賠率越來越多。”

For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be treading a line between macroeconomic headwinds—highlighted by a volatile bond market—and the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. Whether Bitcoin continues to retreat or resumes its long-term ascent will likely depend on how global policymakers respond to mounting bond market pressures—and whether holders are prepared to keep playing “chicken” with the central planners.

目前，世界上最大的加密貨幣似乎正在踩在宏觀經濟逆風之間的界限（在一個動蕩的債券市場中，都在較弱的美元範圍內，而且美元弱。比特幣是否繼續撤退或恢復其長期上升可能取決於全球決策者如何應對債券市場壓力的越來越多，以及持有人是否準備繼續與中央計劃者一起玩“雞”。

At press time, BTC traded at $82,091.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為82,091美元。