比特幣準備擺脫宏觀抓地力，預測表現出強烈的上升空間

加密經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的一項新分析顯示，儘管今天的高息環境，儘管今天的高息環境可能會有所改善。

Bitcoin (BTC) might be poised for a significant upswing despite today’s high-interest environment, according to a recent analysis by crypto economist Timothy Peterson.

加密經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）最近進行的分析顯示，儘管今天的高息環境，比特幣（BTC）可能會有所改善。

Taking a historical perspective, Peterson examined how the world’s premier cryptocurrency has reacted in past cycles when U.S. High Yield interest rates climbed above the 8% threshold.

從歷史的角度來看，彼得森研究了當美國高收益利率攀升到8％的閾值以上時，全球首要的加密貨幣在過去的周期中如何做出反應。

Examining trends from 2010, Peterson identified 38 instances of such high-interest spikes. In the three months following those surges, Bitcoin displayed impressive resilience and recovery.

彼得森研究了2010年的趨勢，確定了38種這種高息釘的實例。在這些激報之後的三個月中，比特幣表現出令人印象深刻的韌性和恢復。

Averaging a 71% increase and a median return of 31%, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience. Even on the downside, the worst 15th percentile performance during those periods was a 16% drop.

比特幣平均增加了71％，中位回報率為31％，表現出了顯著的彈性。即使是不利的一面，在那段時間裡，最差的15個百分位數表現也是16％。

Based on this analysis, Peterson suggests that Bitcoin could be trading anywhere between $75,000 and $138,000 in the coming quarter if similar patterns pan out.

基於此分析，彼得森建議，如果類似的模式消失，比特幣在下一季度可以交易75,000至138,000美元。

Another angle of Peterson’s research highlights the increasingly close relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar.

彼得森研究的另一個角度凸顯了比特幣與美元之間日益緊密的關係。

While the two assets don’t directly influence each other, Peterson argues their recent movements reflect their shared exposure to broader macroeconomic forces. These include shrinking liquidity, rising real interest rates, and a global pullback from risk.

儘管這兩個資產並沒有直接互相影響，但彼得森認為他們最近的運動反映了他們對更廣泛的宏觀經濟力量的共同暴露。其中包括縮小流動性，實際利率上升以及風險中的全球回調。

Interestingly, this correlation has undergone a transformation in 2024. Previously, Bitcoin and high-yield rates often moved in opposite directions, but now they’re both reacting to the same stressors.

有趣的是，這種相關性在2024年發生了轉變。以前，比特幣和高收益率通常朝相反的方向移動，但現在它們都對相同的壓力源有反應。

However, looking ahead, Peterson predicts Bitcoin will eventually decouple from these pressures and begin to climb again—especially once monetary conditions begin to ease and capital flows return. This will factor in the U.S. institutions that are entering the market, with Charles Schwab (NYSE:CVS) the latest to be named.

但是，展望未來，彼得森預測，比特幣最終將與這些壓力脫穎而出，並開始再次攀升，尤其是一旦貨幣條件開始緩解並恢復資本流量。這將考慮進入市場的美國機構，而查爾斯·施瓦布（Charles Schwab）（紐約證券交易所：CVS）是最新的命名。