比特币准备摆脱宏观抓地力，预测表现出强烈的上升空间

加密经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的一项新分析显示，尽管今天的高息环境，尽管今天的高息环境可能会有所改善。

Bitcoin (BTC) might be poised for a significant upswing despite today’s high-interest environment, according to a recent analysis by crypto economist Timothy Peterson.

加密经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）最近进行的分析显示，尽管今天的高息环境，比特币（BTC）可能会有所改善。

Taking a historical perspective, Peterson examined how the world’s premier cryptocurrency has reacted in past cycles when U.S. High Yield interest rates climbed above the 8% threshold.

从历史的角度来看，彼得森研究了当美国高收益利率攀升到8％的阈值以上时，全球首要的加密货币在过去的周期中如何做出反应。

Examining trends from 2010, Peterson identified 38 instances of such high-interest spikes. In the three months following those surges, Bitcoin displayed impressive resilience and recovery.

彼得森研究了2010年的趋势，确定了38种这种高息钉的实例。在这些激报之后的三个月中，比特币表现出令人印象深刻的韧性和恢复。

Averaging a 71% increase and a median return of 31%, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience. Even on the downside, the worst 15th percentile performance during those periods was a 16% drop.

比特币平均增加了71％，中位回报率为31％，表现出了显着的弹性。即使是不利的一面，在那段时间里，最差的15个百分位数表现也是16％。

Based on this analysis, Peterson suggests that Bitcoin could be trading anywhere between $75,000 and $138,000 in the coming quarter if similar patterns pan out.

基于此分析，彼得森建议，如果类似的模式消失，比特币在下一季度可以交易75,000至138,000美元。

Another angle of Peterson’s research highlights the increasingly close relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar.

彼得森研究的另一个角度凸显了比特币与美元之间日益紧密的关系。

While the two assets don’t directly influence each other, Peterson argues their recent movements reflect their shared exposure to broader macroeconomic forces. These include shrinking liquidity, rising real interest rates, and a global pullback from risk.

尽管这两个资产并没有直接互相影响，但彼得森认为他们最近的运动反映了他们对更广泛的宏观经济力量的共同暴露。其中包括缩小流动性，实际利率上升以及风险中的全球回调。

Interestingly, this correlation has undergone a transformation in 2024. Previously, Bitcoin and high-yield rates often moved in opposite directions, but now they’re both reacting to the same stressors.

有趣的是，这种相关性在2024年发生了转变。以前，比特币和高收益率通常朝相反的方向移动，但现在它们都对相同的压力源有反应。

However, looking ahead, Peterson predicts Bitcoin will eventually decouple from these pressures and begin to climb again—especially once monetary conditions begin to ease and capital flows return. This will factor in the U.S. institutions that are entering the market, with Charles Schwab (NYSE:CVS) the latest to be named.

但是，展望未来，彼得森预测，比特币最终将与这些压力脱颖而出，并开始再次攀升，尤其是一旦货币条件开始缓解并恢复资本流量。这将考虑进入市场的美国机构，而查尔斯·施瓦布（Charles Schwab）（纽约证券交易所：CVS）是最新的命名。