比特幣 2028 年減半之路：詳細預測

Bitwise 資訊長Matt Hougan 在最近的報告中對比特幣的未來進行了全面展望，預測波動性將降低50%，機構投資將增加，到2028 年減半，比特幣價格將達到25 萬美元。 Hougan強調了現貨比特幣ETF在吸引機構投資者、穩定市場以及推動比特幣在金融領域的接受度方面的作用，並有可能使其成為多元化投資組合的標準組成部分。

Bitcoin's Trajectory Towards the 2028 Halving: A Comprehensive Outlook

比特幣走向 2028 年減半的軌跡：綜合展望

Introduction

介紹

Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency, has captured the attention of global investors with its remarkable growth trajectory and the anticipation of its upcoming halving event in 2028. In a recent comprehensive investor note, Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's expected performance leading up to and following this significant milestone. Hougan's insights offer valuable insights into the potential future of Bitcoin as it matures and gains broader institutional acceptance.

比特幣（BTC）作為一種開創性的加密貨幣，以其顯著的成長軌跡和對2028 年即將到來的減半事件的預期，吸引了全球投資者的注意。 Hougan 在最近的一份綜合投資者報告中提供了深入分析比特幣在這一重要里程碑之前和之後的預期表現。隨著比特幣的成熟並獲得更廣泛的機構認可，Hougan 的見解為比特幣的潛在未來提供了寶貴的見解。

Continued Price Appreciation

價格持續升值

Hougan predicts that Bitcoin's price will continue its upward trend post-halving, drawing parallels to its historical performance after previous halving events. Since its inception in 2012, Bitcoin has experienced a notable increase in value following each halving, a process that reduces the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. This supply-side constraint, coupled with growing demand, is anticipated to drive further price appreciation. Hougan maintains his previous price projection of $250,000 for Bitcoin in the coming years.

Hougan預測，比特幣價格在減半後將持續上漲趨勢，與先前減半事件後的歷史表現相似。自 2012 年誕生以來，比特幣在每次減半後其價值都會顯著增加，這一過程減少了進入市場的新比特幣的供應。這種供應方面的限制，加上不斷增長的需求，預計將推動價格進一步上漲。 Hougan 維持先前對比特幣未來幾年 25 萬美元的價格預測。

Institutional Adoption and Reduced Volatility

機構採用和波動性降低

Hougan emphasizes the transformative impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the cryptocurrency market. These instruments have facilitated the entry of institutional investors, including financial advisors and large financial institutions, who bring a more disciplined approach to trading. The influx of institutional capital is expected to significantly reduce Bitcoin's volatility by 50% by the next halving, as these investors tend to employ strategic rebalancing and steady, incremental investments.

Hougan 強調了現貨比特幣 ETF 對加密貨幣市場的變革性影響。這些工具促進了機構投資者的進入，包括財務顧問和大型金融機構，他們帶來了更嚴格的交易方法。機構資本的湧入預計將在下一次減半時將比特幣的波動性大幅降低 50%，因為這些投資者傾向於採用策略性再平衡和穩定的增量投資。

Bitcoin as a Diversified Investment

比特幣作為多元化投資

Hougan anticipates that by 2028, Bitcoin will become a standard component in diversified investment portfolios, with allocations potentially reaching or exceeding 5%. This projection is supported by the growing comfort with and recognition of Bitcoin's maturing market and reduced price swings. Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the potential value of incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocation strategies.

Hougan預計，到2028年，比特幣將成為多元化投資組合的標準組成部分，配置比例可能達到或超過5%。這項預測得到了人們對比特幣成熟市場和價格波動減少的日益認可和認可的支持。機構投資者越來越認識到將比特幣納入其資產配置策略的潛在價值。

Institutional Capital Inflows

機構資本流入

Hougan forecasts that institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could exceed $200 billion, spurred by broader market access and deeper financial integration. This influx of capital would further promote market stability and solidify Bitcoin's position as a mainstream financial asset. While Bitcoin's adoption and price are subject to market risks, Hougan outlines a future where Bitcoin could achieve widespread institutional acceptance and recognition.

Hougan 預測，在更廣泛的市場准入和更深入的金融一體化的刺激下，流入比特幣 ETF 的機構資本可能會超過 2000 億美元。這種資本的湧入將進一步促進市場穩定並鞏固比特幣作為主流金融資產的地位。雖然比特幣的採用和價格受到市場風險的影響，但霍根概述了比特幣可以獲得廣泛的機構接受和認可的未來。

Market Risks and Opportunities

市場風險與機遇

Hougan acknowledges the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments, including market volatility and regulatory uncertainties. However, he emphasizes the potential opportunities for investors who understand the market dynamics and adopt a long-term perspective. Bitcoin's halving events have historically marked significant turning points in its trajectory, and the 2028 halving is expected to be no different. Investors should conduct thorough research and due diligence before making investment decisions.

Hougan 承認與加密貨幣投資相關的固有風險，包括市場波動和監管不確定性。不過，他強調，對於了解市場動態並具有長遠眼光的投資人來說，存在著潛在的機會。比特幣的減半事件在歷史上標誌著其發展軌蹟的重大轉折點，預計 2028 年的減半也不例外。投資者在做出投資決定之前應進行徹底的研究和盡職調查。

Conclusion

結論

Matt Hougan's comprehensive analysis provides a compelling outlook for Bitcoin's future as it approaches the 2028 halving. Anticipating continued price appreciation, reduced volatility, and widespread institutional adoption, Hougan outlines a potential path for Bitcoin to become an established and recognized investment asset class. While market risks remain, the potential opportunities presented by Bitcoin's ongoing evolution cannot be overlooked.

隨著 2028 年減半臨近，Matt Hougan 的綜合分析為比特幣的未來提供了令人信服的前景。預計價格將持續升值、波動性降低以及機構的廣泛採用，Hougan 概述了比特幣成為既定且公認的投資資產類別的潛在路徑。儘管市場風險依然存在，但比特幣持續演變帶來的潛在機會也不容忽視。