比特幣市場暴跌：盤整階段還是上升趨勢的前奏？

比特幣在過去 24 小時內經歷了大幅下跌，下跌 4.5%，至 57,399 美元。這次下跌是在過去三天下跌 13% 後發生的，引發了人們對價格進一步下跌潛力的擔憂。分析師指出，2022 年 4 月減半的後果、市場整合以及大量無利可圖的持有者等因素導致了回檔。儘管目前阻力位為 62,000 美元，但潛在支撐位為 55,000 美元和 52,000 美元。 RSI 指標也顯示呈下降趨勢，可能導致近期價格持續下跌。

Bitcoin's Market Plunge: A Consolidation Phase Before an Anticipated Uptrend

比特幣市場暴跌：預期上升趨勢之前的盤整階段

The cryptocurrency market has been gripped by a wave of uncertainty, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a significant decline in recent days. As of 2:00 a.m. EST, BTC's value has plummeted by 4.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $57,399. This drop marks a sharp downturn in BTC's trajectory, which has seen it lose more than 13% in value over the past three days, leaving market participants and analysts questioning its potential trajectory.

加密貨幣市場受到一波不確定性的影響，比特幣（BTC）最近幾天經歷了大幅下跌。截至美國東部時間凌晨 2:00，BTC 的價值在過去 24 小時內暴跌 4.5%，交易價格為 57,399 美元。此次下跌標誌著 BTC 走勢的急劇下滑，過去三天其價值已下跌超過 13%，這讓市場參與者和分析師對其潛在趨勢產生質疑。

Several factors have contributed to BTC's current downturn, which coincides with its halving event that occurred in April 2022. According to Rekt Capital, a renowned analyst, Bitcoin's present price action aligns with a typical halving cycle, characterized by a period of consolidation dubbed the "Re-accumulation Phase" after the subsidy halving, before embarking on a sustained parabolic uptrend.

有幾個因素導致了BTC 目前的低迷，恰逢2022 年4 月發生的減半事件。稱為“減半”的整合期。

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Bottom Formation

技術分析顯示潛在底部形成

Crypto trader and analyst Moustache has analyzed Bitcoin's technical indicators and believes that the cryptocurrency is approaching a potential price bottom soon. Based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price momentum, Bitcoin is on the verge of entering the oversold zone. Historically, such scenarios have often signaled the formation of a market bottom.

加密貨幣交易員兼分析師 Mustache 分析了比特幣的技術指標，並認為加密貨幣即將接近潛在的價格底部。根據衡量價格動量的相對強弱指數（RSI），比特幣正處於進入超賣區域的邊緣。從歷史上看，這種情況往往預示著市場底部的形成。

Signs of Profit-Taking and Panic Selling

獲利了結和恐慌性拋售的跡象

Further analysis reveals that approximately 60% of Bitcoin holders are experiencing losses on their investments, a situation that could trigger a wave of selling due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Data from IntoTheBlock, an on-chain analytics and market insights firm, supports this notion. Their In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model indicates that roughly 63% of investors who purchased Bitcoin between $48,800 and $66,000 are currently in financial losses.

進一步分析顯示，大約 60% 的比特幣持有者正在經歷投資損失，這種情況可能會因恐懼、不確定性和懷疑 (FUD) 而引發一波拋售潮。來自鏈上分析和市場洞察公司 IntoTheBlock 的數據支持了這一觀點。他們的 In/Out of the Money around Price (IOMAP) 模型表明，購買價格在 48,800 美元至 66,000 美元之間的比特幣的投資者中，大約有 63% 目前處於財務損失中。

This cohort of investors may be engaging in panic selling, contributing to the current pullback in Bitcoin's price.

這群投資者可能正在進行恐慌性拋售，導致當前比特幣價格回檔。

Resistance and Potential Support Levels

阻力位和潛在支撐位

Bitcoin is facing strong resistance around the $62,000 level, as evidenced by three consecutive red candlesticks on the daily chart, indicating bearish sentiment. Trading volume has surged by 30% over the past 24 hours to $49.5 billion, further highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure.

比特幣在 62,000 美元附近面臨強勁阻力，日線圖上連續三個紅色燭台證明了這一點，表明看跌情緒。過去 24 小時內交易量激增 30%，達到 495 億美元，進一步凸顯了拋售壓力的強度。

After falling below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) on April 24, BTC oscillated around $62,000, suggesting that this level served as a crucial defense zone for Bitcoin bulls. However, the bulls failed to hold this level, and it has since transformed into a formidable point of resistance.

4 月 24 日跌破 50 天指數移動平均線 (EMA) 後，BTC 在 62,000 美元附近振盪，表明該水平是比特幣多頭的重要防禦區域。然而，多頭未能守住這一水平，此後它已轉變為一個強大的阻力點。

The $62,000 barrier is further reinforced by data from the IOMAP chart, which indicates that this level coincides with a price range of $60,828 to $62,568, where approximately 419,920 BTC were previously purchased by roughly 1.2 million addresses. These investors may be realizing profits at the moment, adding to the selling pressure.

IOMAP 圖表中的數據進一步強化了 62,000 美元的關口，該水平表明該水平與 60,828 美元至 62,568 美元的價格範圍一致，其中約 120 萬個地址之前購買了約 419,920 BTC。這些投資者目前可能正在實現利潤，增加了拋售壓力。

Potential Targets for Downside Movement

下行走勢的潛在目標

If the current selling trend persists, Bitcoin could continue to decline, with the first potential support level arising at $55,000, where there is a cluster of buyers.

如果當前的拋售趨勢持續下去，比特幣可能會繼續下跌，第一個潛在支撐位將出現在 55,000 美元，那裡有大量買家。

Perhaps the most significant support level for BTC would be found in the buyer congestion zone between $52,000 and $50,500, where the 200-day EMA is positioned. This zone could act as a potential cap for Bitcoin's downside in the short term.

也許 BTC 最重要的支撐位位於 52,000 美元至 50,500 美元之間的買方擁擠區域，即 200 日均線所在的位置。該區域可能成為比特幣短期內下行的潛在上限。

Short-Term Outlook

短期展望

Bitcoin's pessimistic outlook is reinforced by the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward the oversold zone. With the price strength currently at 30, the downtrend is considered strong. Consequently, Bitcoin is likely to experience further declines in the near-term.

相對強弱指數（RSI）急劇下跌至超賣區域，加劇了比特幣的悲觀前景。目前價格強度為 30，下降趨勢被認為很強勁。因此，比特幣短期內可能會進一步下跌。

Investors should exercise caution and monitor market developments closely as Bitcoin navigates this period of uncertainty.

隨著比特幣度過這段不確定時期，投資者應保持謹慎並密切關注市場發展。