比特币市场暴跌：盘整阶段还是上升趋势的前奏？

比特币在过去 24 小时内经历了大幅下跌，下跌 4.5%，至 57,399 美元。此次下跌是在过去三天下跌 13% 后发生的，引发了人们对价格进一步下跌潜力的担忧。分析师指出，2022 年 4 月减半的后果、市场整合以及大量无利可图的持有者等因素导致了回调。尽管当前阻力位为 62,000 美元，但潜在支撑位为 55,000 美元和 52,000 美元。 RSI 指标还表明呈下降趋势，可能导致近期价格持续下跌。

Bitcoin's Market Plunge: A Consolidation Phase Before an Anticipated Uptrend

比特币市场暴跌：预期上升趋势之前的盘整阶段

The cryptocurrency market has been gripped by a wave of uncertainty, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a significant decline in recent days. As of 2:00 a.m. EST, BTC's value has plummeted by 4.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $57,399. This drop marks a sharp downturn in BTC's trajectory, which has seen it lose more than 13% in value over the past three days, leaving market participants and analysts questioning its potential trajectory.

加密货币市场受到一波不确定性的影响，比特币（BTC）最近几天经历了大幅下跌。截至美国东部时间凌晨 2:00，BTC 的价值在过去 24 小时内暴跌 4.5%，交易价格为 57,399 美元。此次下跌标志着 BTC 走势的急剧下滑，过去三天其价值已下跌超过 13%，这让市场参与者和分析师对其潜在走势产生质疑。

Several factors have contributed to BTC's current downturn, which coincides with its halving event that occurred in April 2022. According to Rekt Capital, a renowned analyst, Bitcoin's present price action aligns with a typical halving cycle, characterized by a period of consolidation dubbed the "Re-accumulation Phase" after the subsidy halving, before embarking on a sustained parabolic uptrend.

有几个因素导致了 BTC 目前的低迷，恰逢 2022 年 4 月发生的减半事件。根据著名分析师 Rekt Capital 的说法，比特币目前的价格走势符合典型的减半周期，其特点是一段被称为“减半”的整合期。补贴减半后的“重新积累阶段”，然后开始持续的抛物线上升趋势。

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Bottom Formation

技术分析表明潜在底部形成

Crypto trader and analyst Moustache has analyzed Bitcoin's technical indicators and believes that the cryptocurrency is approaching a potential price bottom soon. Based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price momentum, Bitcoin is on the verge of entering the oversold zone. Historically, such scenarios have often signaled the formation of a market bottom.

加密货币交易员兼分析师 Mustache 分析了比特币的技术指标，并认为加密货币即将接近潜在的价格底部。根据衡量价格动量的相对强弱指数（RSI），比特币正处于进入超卖区域的边缘。从历史上看，这种情况往往预示着市场底部的形成。

Signs of Profit-Taking and Panic Selling

获利了结和恐慌性抛售的迹象

Further analysis reveals that approximately 60% of Bitcoin holders are experiencing losses on their investments, a situation that could trigger a wave of selling due to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Data from IntoTheBlock, an on-chain analytics and market insights firm, supports this notion. Their In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model indicates that roughly 63% of investors who purchased Bitcoin between $48,800 and $66,000 are currently in financial losses.

进一步分析显示，大约 60% 的比特币持有者正在经历投资损失，这种情况可能会因恐惧、不确定性和怀疑 (FUD) 而引发一波抛售潮。来自链上分析和市场洞察公司 IntoTheBlock 的数据支持了这一观点。他们的 In/Out of the Money around Price (IOMAP) 模型表明，购买价格在 48,800 美元至 66,000 美元之间的比特币的投资者中，大约有 63% 目前处于财务损失中。

This cohort of investors may be engaging in panic selling, contributing to the current pullback in Bitcoin's price.

这群投资者可能正在进行恐慌性抛售，导致当前比特币价格回调。

Resistance and Potential Support Levels

阻力位和潜在支撑位

Bitcoin is facing strong resistance around the $62,000 level, as evidenced by three consecutive red candlesticks on the daily chart, indicating bearish sentiment. Trading volume has surged by 30% over the past 24 hours to $49.5 billion, further highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure.

比特币在 62,000 美元附近面临强劲阻力，日线图上连续三个红色烛台就证明了这一点，表明看跌情绪。过去 24 小时内交易量激增 30%，达到 495 亿美元，进一步凸显了抛售压力的强度。

After falling below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) on April 24, BTC oscillated around $62,000, suggesting that this level served as a crucial defense zone for Bitcoin bulls. However, the bulls failed to hold this level, and it has since transformed into a formidable point of resistance.

4 月 24 日跌破 50 天指数移动平均线 (EMA) 后，BTC 在 62,000 美元附近振荡，表明该水平是比特币多头的重要防御区域。然而，多头未能守住这一水平，此后它已转变为一个强大的阻力点。

The $62,000 barrier is further reinforced by data from the IOMAP chart, which indicates that this level coincides with a price range of $60,828 to $62,568, where approximately 419,920 BTC were previously purchased by roughly 1.2 million addresses. These investors may be realizing profits at the moment, adding to the selling pressure.

IOMAP 图表中的数据进一步强化了 62,000 美元的关口，该水平表明该水平与 60,828 美元至 62,568 美元的价格范围一致，其中约 120 万个地址之前购买了约 419,920 BTC。这些投资者目前可能正在实现利润，从而增加了抛售压力。

Potential Targets for Downside Movement

下行走势的潜在目标

If the current selling trend persists, Bitcoin could continue to decline, with the first potential support level arising at $55,000, where there is a cluster of buyers.

如果当前的抛售趋势持续下去，比特币可能会继续下跌，第一个潜在支撑位将出现在 55,000 美元，那里有大量买家。

Perhaps the most significant support level for BTC would be found in the buyer congestion zone between $52,000 and $50,500, where the 200-day EMA is positioned. This zone could act as a potential cap for Bitcoin's downside in the short term.

也许 BTC 最重要的支撑位位于 52,000 美元至 50,500 美元之间的买方拥挤区域，即 200 日均线所在的位置。该区域可能成为比特币短期内下行的潜在上限。

Short-Term Outlook

短期展望

Bitcoin's pessimistic outlook is reinforced by the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward the oversold zone. With the price strength currently at 30, the downtrend is considered strong. Consequently, Bitcoin is likely to experience further declines in the near-term.

相对强弱指数（RSI）急剧下跌至超卖区域，加剧了比特币的悲观前景。目前价格强度为 30，下降趋势被认为很强劲。因此，比特币短期内可能会进一步下跌。

Investors should exercise caution and monitor market developments closely as Bitcoin navigates this period of uncertainty.

随着比特币度过这一不确定时期，投资者应保持谨慎并密切关注市场发展。