比特幣 8 萬美元的反彈是看漲的，但由於回調風險仍然存在，比特幣略有過度：Godbole

圖表研究顯示，比特幣的價格上漲似乎過度，可能為經典的「牛市回檔」做好準備。

Bitcoin (BTC) price action appears overstretched on the short-duration technical charts following Monday’s breakout above $80,000, setting the stage for a classic “bull market pullback.”

在週一突破 8 萬美元之後，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格走勢在短期技術圖表上顯得過度拉伸，為經典的「牛市回調」奠定了基礎。

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose to nearly $81,800 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, marking a 15% monthly gain, the highest since March, according to CoinDesk data.

根據 CoinDesk 的數據，週一亞洲交易時段，市值領先的加密貨幣價格上漲至近 81,800 美元，月漲幅達 15%，為 3 月以來的最高水準。

Since the recent U.S. elections, BTC has demonstrated a textbook bull market ascent, with consistent upswings followed by consolidations, setting the stage for the next leg higher.

自最近的美國大選以來，比特幣表現出了教科書式的牛市上漲，持續上漲，隨後盤整，為下一步走高奠定了基礎。

But now above $80,000, the rally looks overstretched, as the spread between bitcoin's price and its 200-hour simple moving average has widened to its highest level since early March, when prices suddenly corrected lower by 11% to $60,000.

但現在突破 80,000 美元，反彈看起來有些過度，因為比特幣價格與其 200 小時簡單移動平均線之間的價差已擴大至 3 月初以來的最高水平，當時價格突然回調 11% 至 60,000 美元。

In technical analysis, a significant gap between the price and the moving average typically indicates that the market has moved too quickly, prompting traders to reassess their positions and possibly take profits.

在技​​術分析中，價格與移動平均線之間的巨大差距通常表示市場變動太快，促使交易者重新評估其部位並可能獲利了結。

Further, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used to confirm price movements, has shown bearish divergence, creating a lower high that contradicts BTC's new high above $80,000

此外，用於確認價格走勢的動量震盪指標 14 小時相對強弱指數 (RSI) 已顯示出看跌背離，創造了一個較低的高點，與 BTC 高於 80,000 美元的新高相矛盾

This bearish divergence suggests that the bullish momentum may have been exhausted for the time being, raising the possibility of an impending pullback.

這種看跌背離表明看漲勢頭可能暫時已經耗盡，從而增加了即將回調的可能性。

If prices rollover, the first key piece of support would be the 50-hour SMA at $78,400. Acceptance below the average could open doors to a deeper decline to $75,000.

如果價格翻轉，第一個關鍵支撐將是 78,400 美元的 50 小時移動平均線。低於平均的接受度可能會為進一步下跌至 75,000 美元打開大門。

Note that corrections are a part of a bull market and a potential price decline could recharge bulls' engines for a more long lasting rise to $90,000 and higher.

請注意，調整是多頭市場的一部分，潛在的價格下跌可能會為多頭注入動力，以實現更持久的上漲至 90,000 美元甚至更高。

In other words, the broader outlook remains bullish, with possible resistance at $90,000.

換句話說，更廣泛的前景仍然看漲，可能的阻力位在 90,000 美元。

Omkar Godbole, a chartered market technician, is a CoinDesk senior analyst and co-managing editor for markets. The views expressed here are his own.

Omkar Godbole 是一名特許市場技術員，也是 CoinDesk 的高級分析師和市場聯合主編。這裡表達的觀點是他自己的。

This market analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.

此市場分析僅用於教育目的，並非財務建議。