比特币 8 万美元的反弹是看涨的，但由于回调风险仍然存在，比特币略有过度：Godbole

图表研究显示，比特币的价格上涨似乎过度，可能为经典的“牛市回调”做好准备。

Bitcoin (BTC) price action appears overstretched on the short-duration technical charts following Monday’s breakout above $80,000, setting the stage for a classic “bull market pullback.”

周一突破 80,000 美元之后，比特币 (BTC) 的价格走势在短期技术图表上显得过度拉伸，为经典的“牛市回调”奠定了基础。

The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose to nearly $81,800 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, marking a 15% monthly gain, the highest since March, according to CoinDesk data.

根据 CoinDesk 的数据，周一亚洲交易时段，市值领先的加密货币价格上涨至近 81,800 美元，月度涨幅达 15%，为 3 月份以来的最高水平。

Since the recent U.S. elections, BTC has demonstrated a textbook bull market ascent, with consistent upswings followed by consolidations, setting the stage for the next leg higher.

自最近的美国大选以来，比特币表现出了教科书式的牛市上涨，持续上涨，随后盘整，为下一步走高奠定了基础。

But now above $80,000, the rally looks overstretched, as the spread between bitcoin's price and its 200-hour simple moving average has widened to its highest level since early March, when prices suddenly corrected lower by 11% to $60,000.

但现在突破 80,000 美元，反弹看起来有些过度，因为比特币价格与其 200 小时简单移动平均线之间的价差已扩大至 3 月初以来的最高水平，当时价格突然回调 11% 至 60,000 美元。

In technical analysis, a significant gap between the price and the moving average typically indicates that the market has moved too quickly, prompting traders to reassess their positions and possibly take profits.

在技​​术分析中，价格与移动平均线之间的巨大差距通常表明市场变动过快，促使交易者重新评估其头寸并可能获利了结。

Further, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used to confirm price movements, has shown bearish divergence, creating a lower high that contradicts BTC's new high above $80,000

此外，用于确认价格走势的动量震荡指标 14 小时相对强弱指数 (RSI) 已显示出看跌背离，创造了一个较低的高点，与 BTC 高于 80,000 美元的新高相矛盾

This bearish divergence suggests that the bullish momentum may have been exhausted for the time being, raising the possibility of an impending pullback.

这种看跌背离表明看涨势头可能暂时已经耗尽，从而增加了即将回调的可能性。

If prices rollover, the first key piece of support would be the 50-hour SMA at $78,400. Acceptance below the average could open doors to a deeper decline to $75,000.

如果价格翻转，第一个关键支撑将是 78,400 美元的 50 小时移动平均线。低于平均水平的接受可能会为进一步下跌至 75,000 美元打开大门。

Note that corrections are a part of a bull market and a potential price decline could recharge bulls' engines for a more long lasting rise to $90,000 and higher.

请注意，调整是牛市的一部分，潜在的价格下跌可能会为多头注入动力，以实现更持久的上涨至 90,000 美元甚至更高。

In other words, the broader outlook remains bullish, with possible resistance at $90,000.

换句话说，更广泛的前景仍然看涨，可能的阻力位为 90,000 美元。

Omkar Godbole, a chartered market technician, is a CoinDesk senior analyst and co-managing editor for markets. The views expressed here are his own.

Omkar Godbole 是一名特许市场技术员，也是 CoinDesk 的高级分析师和市场联席主编。这里表达的观点是他自己的。

This market analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.

此市场分析仅用于教育目的，并非财务建议。