比特幣：一項指標顯示 2025 年開局將不穩定

我發現了一個歷史上可以揭示比特幣未來表現的指標。在這篇文章中，我將解釋它在過去是如何運作的（以及它工作得不太好的情況），以及為什麼它可能表明存在困難。

This article discusses a technical indicator that may hint at a rocky start to 2025 for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC-USD). The indicator in question is the Bollinger Bands Percentage, which measures the distance between an asset's price and the upper or lower Bollinger Band, expressed as a percentage.

本文討論了一項技術指標，該指標可能暗示比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC-USD）到 2025 年將面臨艱難開局。所討論的指標是布林線百分比，它衡量資產價格與布林線上限或下限之間的距離，以百分比表示。

According to the author, when this indicator spikes to extremely high levels, it can often indicate a potential reversal in the asset's price trend. For instance, if the indicator surges to 95% or higher, it might suggest that an asset is nearing a top and could be poised for a downturn.

作者認為，當該指標飆升至極高水準時，通常可以顯示資產價格趨勢可能出現逆轉。例如，如果該指標飆升至 95% 或更高，則可能表示某項資產已接近頂部，並可能陷入低迷。

The author points out that this indicator has played out in Bitcoin's past price movements. In 2017, as BTC soared to all-time highs, the Bollinger Bands Percentage indicator reached 98% in December of that year, just before Bitcoin's price began to plummet.

作者指出，這項指標已經在比特幣過去的價格走勢中發揮了作用。 2017年，隨著比特幣飆升至歷史新高，布林通道百分比指標在當年12月達到了98%，就在比特幣價格開始暴跌之前。

Similarly, in 2021, the indicator again hit 98% in March, coinciding with another peak in Bitcoin's price trend before a subsequent downturn.

同樣，2021 年，該指標在 3 月再次觸及 98%，恰逢比特幣價格趨勢在隨後的低迷之前達到另一個高峰。

However, the author also notes that this indicator isn't foolproof and there have been instances where it didn't accurately predict a price reversal.

然而，作者也指出，該指標並非萬無一失，在某些情況下它無法準確預測價格反轉。

For example, in 2019, the indicator reached 97% in June, but Bitcoin's price continued rising for several more months.

例如，2019年6月該指標達到97%，但比特幣價格又持續上漲了幾個月。

Ultimately, the author suggests that this indicator might be hinting at a rocky start to 2025 for Bitcoin, considering that the indicator is currently sitting at 94%. This could potentially indicate that BTC is nearing a top and might be setting up for a downturn early next year.

最後，作者認為，考慮到該指標目前為 94%，該指標可能暗示比特幣到 2025 年將面臨艱難開局。這可能表明比特幣已接近頂峰，並可能在明年初陷入低迷。