比特幣減半釋放樂觀情緒，引發加密貨幣市場飆升

近期比特幣減半事件引發了市場樂觀情緒。雖然資金費率短暫下跌，顯示短期可能看跌，但整體市場指標顯示看漲趨勢正在鞏固。資金利率已恢復，目前為正值，顯示市場情緒回歸較為樂觀的狀態。未平倉合約也有所增加，顯示投資者對比特幣市場的持續參與。

Bitcoin Halving Event Sparks Optimism in Cryptocurrency Market

比特幣減半事件引發加密貨幣市場樂觀情緒

On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its much-anticipated halving event, where the block reward for miners was reduced by half. This significant event has sparked a surge of optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts pointing to key indicators suggesting a bullish trend.

2024 年 4 月 20 日，比特幣經歷了萬眾期待的減半事件，礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半。這一重大事件引發了加密貨幣市場的樂觀情緒高漲，分析師指出關鍵指標顯示看漲趨勢。

Funding Rates Indicate Shift Towards Bullishness

融資利率顯示轉向看漲

Leading up to the halving, analysts at Kaiko, a market data provider specializing in crypto derivatives and futures, observed a shift in Bitcoin's funding rate. The funding rate, a fee paid between long and short position holders in futures contracts, reflects market sentiment towards an asset.

在減半之前，專門從事加密貨幣衍生品和期貨的市場數據提供商 Kaiko 的分析師觀察到了比特幣融資利率的變化。融資利率是期貨合約多頭和空頭部位持有者之間支付的費用，反映了市場對資產的情緒。

A negative funding rate signifies that short positions are compensating long positions, indicating a bearish outlook. Notably, Bitcoin's funding rate dipped into negative territory for the first time this year on April 18th, just two days before the halving.

負資金利率意味著空頭部位正在補償多頭頭寸，顯示前景看跌。值得注意的是，4 月 18 日，即減半前兩天，比特幣的融資利率今年首次跌至負值。

However, this brief bearishness has been overshadowed by a broader sense of optimism. Following the halving, Bitcoin's funding rate swiftly recovered and currently sits at a positive 0.0051. This positive rate suggests a return to the status quo, where long positions are incentivized, reflecting a bullish market sentiment.

然而，這種短暫的悲觀情緒被更廣泛的樂觀情緒所掩蓋。減半後，比特幣的融資利率迅速恢復，目前為正值 0.0051。這一正利率顯示回到了現狀，多頭部位受到激勵，反映了看漲的市場情緒。

Open Interest Rebounds, Suggesting Continued Investor Engagement

未平倉合約反彈，顯示投資人持續參與

Further supporting the positive market outlook is the uptick in Bitcoin's Open Interest (OI), a metric that represents the total amount of outstanding futures contracts. Despite a slight dip last week, OI has since rebounded to over $17 billion, indicating a sustained level of investor engagement in the Bitcoin market.

比特幣未平倉合約（OI）的上升進一步支撐了積極的市場前景，該指標代表了未平倉期貨合約的總量。儘管上週略有下降，但 OI 此後已反彈至超過 170 億美元，顯示投資者對比特幣市場的持續參與程度。

Halving Impact Exceeds Historical Trends

減半影響超過歷史趨勢

Perhaps the most intriguing finding from Kaiko's analysis is the indication that this halving event may be having a more positive impact on Bitcoin's price compared to previous halvings. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was up 2.8% since the halving, outperforming the price increases observed immediately after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving events.

也許 Kaiko 的分析中最有趣的發現是，與先前的減半事件相比，這次減半事件可能會對比特幣的價格產生更正面的影響。截至報告發佈時，比特幣自減半以來已上漲 2.8%，超過 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年減半事件後立即觀察到的價格漲幅。

While Bitcoin has since experienced a slight price correction, it remains nearly 3% up since the halving, suggesting a sustained positive impact. However, analysts caution against drawing definitive conclusions from the initial data, as the cryptocurrency market remains volatile and short-term fluctuations are expected.

儘管比特幣此後經歷了小幅價格調整，但自減半以來仍上漲了近 3%，這表明比特幣產生了持續的積極影響。然而，分析師警告不要從初始數據中得出明確的結論，因為加密貨幣市場仍然不穩定，預計會出現短期波動。

Bullish Sentiment Fueled by Macroeconomic Factors

宏觀經濟因素推動看漲情緒

Beyond technical indicators, some analysts believe that broader macroeconomic factors are also contributing to the current bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. The ongoing global inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties have prompted investors to seek assets perceived as hedges against inflation. Bitcoin, with its finite supply due to the halving mechanism, fits this profile for many investors.

除了技術指標之外，一些分析師認為，更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素也促成了當前圍繞比特幣的看漲情緒。持續的全球通膨壓力和地緣政治不確定性促使投資者尋求被視為對沖通膨的資產。由於減半機制，比特幣的供應量有限，適合許多投資者的這種情況。

Additionally, the increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency is seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Major financial institutions are actively exploring ways to offer Bitcoin exposure to their clients, suggesting a growing level of confidence in the asset class.

此外，加密貨幣越來越多的機構採用被視為比特幣長期前景的正面訊號。主要金融機構正在積極探索向客戶提供比特幣敞口的方法，這表明人們對這一資產類別的信心不斷增強。

While the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, the post-halving optimism and positive market indicators suggest a bullish trend for Bitcoin. However, investors should remain cautious and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

儘管加密貨幣市場仍然波動，但減半後的樂觀情緒和積極的市場指標顯示比特幣的看漲趨勢。不過，投資者在做出投資決定前應保持謹慎並進行充分研究。