比特幣減半引發大規模供應衝擊，價格飆升

繼 4 月 19 日比特幣第四次減半事件成功完成後，分析師和愛好者預計，由於挖礦獎勵減少，供應將出現嚴重衝擊。這次減半是比特幣設計不可或缺的一部分，預計會重塑供應動態，有可能導致歷史先例中出現的價格大幅上漲。減半機制降低了礦工的區塊獎勵，隨著機構購買持續不減，造成供需失衡。光是美國比特幣現貨 ETF 就平均每天累積 3,000 BTC，超過了目前 450 BTC 的生產力。香港和澳洲的額外 ETF 預計將進一步增加需求，加劇供應衝擊，並可能推動比特幣創下歷史新高。

Bitcoin Halving Triggers Supply Shock, Driving Price Surges

比特幣減半引發供應衝擊，推動價格飆升

April 19, 2024

2024 年 4 月 19 日

Introduction

介紹

On April 19, 2024, the Bitcoin network underwent its fourth halving event, a significant milestone that has far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency's supply and price dynamics. This article explores the impact of the Bitcoin halving, examining the factors that have contributed to a supply shock and its potential long-term consequences.

2024 年 4 月 19 日，比特幣網路經歷了第四次減半事件，這是一個重要的里程碑，對加密貨幣的供應和價格動態產生了深遠的影響。本文探討了比特幣減半的影響，研究了導致供應衝擊的因素及其潛在的長期後果。

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving

了解比特幣減半

Every four years, Bitcoin experiences a halving event, during which the reward for mining new blocks is reduced by half. This mechanism, designed by the cryptocurrency's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, aims to control Bitcoin's inflation by limiting the rate at which new units are generated.

每四年，比特幣就會經歷一次減半事件，在此期間，開採新區塊的獎勵會減少一半。該機制由加密貨幣的神秘創造者中本聰設計，旨在透過限制新單位的生成速度來控制比特幣的通貨膨脹。

With the successful completion of the latest halving, the reward for mining a block has decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This periodic reduction not only ensures a controlled release of Bitcoin but also reinforces its scarcity, drawing parallels with precious metals like gold.

隨著最近一次減半的成功完成，開採一個區塊的獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC。這種週期性的減少不僅確保了比特幣的受控釋放，而且還強化了其稀缺性，與黃金等貴金屬相似。

The Bitcoin Supply Shock

比特幣供應衝擊

The halving has resulted in a constrained supply of Bitcoin, as miners now receive fewer rewards for their efforts. This supply shock has been exacerbated by the increasing demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors and the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

減半導致比特幣供應受到限制，因為礦工現在獲得的獎勵減少了。機構投資者對比特幣的需求不斷增加以及比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出加劇了這種供應衝擊。

According to Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company JAN3, "The halving is when we're going to really see supply shock take hold. The ETFs have been slowly draining the market of available Bitcoin, and now the production rate will be cut in half."

比特幣技術公司 JAN3 的首席執行官 Samson Mow 表示：“減半是我們真正看到供應衝擊發生的時候。ETF 一直在慢慢耗盡市場上可用的比特幣，現在比特幣的生產率將降低。”一半。

Factors Contributing to the Supply Shock

造成供應衝擊的因素

• Increased Competition in Mining Bitcoin: The halving has intensified competition among miners, who must now optimize their operations to remain profitable. High-efficiency operations are likely to dominate the market, pushing less efficient miners out of the equation.
• Reduced Bitcoin Output: The halving has reduced the daily output of Bitcoin, while institutional buying remains strong. This supply-demand imbalance has widened post-halving, with demand from U.S. ETFs alone estimated to be 10-20 times greater than daily production.
• Institutional Demand for Bitcoin: The halving has coincided with a surge in institutional interest in Bitcoin, notably from ETFs in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Australia. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been accumulating around 3,000 BTC daily, outpacing the daily production rate by several times.

Hong Kong ETFs, which have recently been approved, are expected to attract further capital from Asian investors and potentially introduce in-kind provisions that allow investments to be redeemed for underlying Bitcoin.

比特幣挖礦競爭加劇：減半加劇了礦工之間的競爭，他們現在必須優化營運以保持獲利。高效率的營運可能會主導市場，將效率較低的礦工排除在外。這種供需失衡在減半後進一步擴大，光是美國ETF 的需求估計就比每日產量高出10-20 倍。來自ETF 的興趣在美國、香港和澳洲。美國比特幣現貨 ETF 每天累積約 3,000 BTC，超出每日產量數倍。

Long-Term Implications

長期影響

The Bitcoin halving underscores the cryptocurrency's designed scarcity, similar to precious metals. While volatility is expected in the short term, the long-term perspective remains bullish, driven by both reduced supply and increasing institutional demand.

比特幣減半凸顯了加密貨幣的設計稀缺性，類似貴金屬。儘管短期內預計會出現波動，但在供應減少和機構需求增加的推動下，長期前景仍看漲。

The supply shock triggered by the halving is likely to continue supporting Bitcoin's price surge, as demand outstrips supply. This trend is expected to be reinforced by the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value and the entry of more institutional players into the market.

由於需求超過供應，減半引發的供應衝擊可能會繼續支撐比特幣價格飆升。由於越來越多地採用比特幣作為價值儲存手段以及更多機構參與者進入市場，這一趨勢預計將得到加強。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving has created a supply shock that is driving price surges. The interplay of reduced supply and increased demand, fueled by institutional involvement, suggests a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. As Bitcoin navigates its fifth epoch, the halving underscores its scarcity and reinforces its potential as a digital asset with a finite supply.

比特幣減半造成了供應衝擊，推動價格飆升。在機構參與的推動下，供應減少和需求增加相互作用，顯示加密貨幣的長期前景樂觀。隨著比特幣進入第五個時代，減半凸顯了其稀缺性，並增強了其作為供應有限的數位資產的潛力。