比特币减半引发大规模供应冲击，价格飙升

继 4 月 19 日比特币第四次减半事件成功完成后，分析师和爱好者预计，由于挖矿奖励减少，供应将出现严重冲击。这次减半是比特币设计不可或缺的一部分，有望重塑供应动态，有可能导致历史先例中出现的价格大幅上涨。减半机制降低了矿工的区块奖励，随着机构购买持续不减，造成供需失衡。仅美国比特币现货 ETF 就平均每天积累 3,000 BTC，超过了目前 450 BTC 的生产率。香港和澳大利亚的额外 ETF 预计将进一步增加需求，加剧供应冲击，并可能推动比特币创下历史新高。

Bitcoin Halving Triggers Supply Shock, Driving Price Surges

比特币减半引发供应冲击，推动价格飙升

April 19, 2024

2024 年 4 月 19 日

Introduction

介绍

On April 19, 2024, the Bitcoin network underwent its fourth halving event, a significant milestone that has far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency's supply and price dynamics. This article explores the impact of the Bitcoin halving, examining the factors that have contributed to a supply shock and its potential long-term consequences.

2024 年 4 月 19 日，比特币网络经历了第四次减半事件，这是一个重要的里程碑，对加密货币的供应和价格动态产生了深远的影响。本文探讨了比特币减半的影响，研究了导致供应冲击的因素及其潜在的长期后果。

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving

了解比特币减半

Every four years, Bitcoin experiences a halving event, during which the reward for mining new blocks is reduced by half. This mechanism, designed by the cryptocurrency's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, aims to control Bitcoin's inflation by limiting the rate at which new units are generated.

每四年，比特币就会经历一次减半事件，在此期间，开采新区块的奖励会减少一半。该机制由加密货币的神秘创造者中本聪设计，旨在通过限制新单位的生成速度来控制比特币的通货膨胀。

With the successful completion of the latest halving, the reward for mining a block has decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This periodic reduction not only ensures a controlled release of Bitcoin but also reinforces its scarcity, drawing parallels with precious metals like gold.

随着最近一次减半的成功完成，开采一个区块的奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。这种周期性的减少不仅确保了比特币的受控释放，而且还强化了其稀缺性，与黄金等贵金属相似。

The Bitcoin Supply Shock

比特币供应冲击

The halving has resulted in a constrained supply of Bitcoin, as miners now receive fewer rewards for their efforts. This supply shock has been exacerbated by the increasing demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors and the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

减半导致比特币供应受到限制，因为矿工现在获得的奖励减少了。机构投资者对比特币的需求不断增加以及比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出加剧了这种供应冲击。

According to Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company JAN3, "The halving is when we're going to really see supply shock take hold. The ETFs have been slowly draining the market of available Bitcoin, and now the production rate will be cut in half."

比特币技术公司 JAN3 的首席执行官 Samson Mow 表示：“减半是我们真正看到供应冲击发生的时候。ETF 一直在慢慢耗尽市场上可用的比特币，现在比特币的生产率将降低。”一半。”

Factors Contributing to the Supply Shock

造成供应冲击的因素

• Increased Competition in Mining Bitcoin: The halving has intensified competition among miners, who must now optimize their operations to remain profitable. High-efficiency operations are likely to dominate the market, pushing less efficient miners out of the equation.
• Reduced Bitcoin Output: The halving has reduced the daily output of Bitcoin, while institutional buying remains strong. This supply-demand imbalance has widened post-halving, with demand from U.S. ETFs alone estimated to be 10-20 times greater than daily production.
• Institutional Demand for Bitcoin: The halving has coincided with a surge in institutional interest in Bitcoin, notably from ETFs in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Australia. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been accumulating around 3,000 BTC daily, outpacing the daily production rate by several times.

Hong Kong ETFs, which have recently been approved, are expected to attract further capital from Asian investors and potentially introduce in-kind provisions that allow investments to be redeemed for underlying Bitcoin.

比特币挖矿竞争加剧：减半加剧了矿工之间的竞争，他们现在必须优化运营以保持盈利。高效率的运营可能会主导市场，将效率较低的矿工排除在外。 比特币产量减少：减半减少了比特币的每日产量，而机构购买依然强劲。这种供需失衡在减半后进一步扩大，仅美国 ETF 的需求估计就比每日产量高出 10-20 倍。 机构对比特币的需求：减半恰逢机构对比特币的兴趣激增，尤其是来自 ETF 的兴趣在美国、香港和澳大利亚。美国比特币现货 ETF 每天积累约 3,000 BTC，超出每日产量数倍。最近获得批准的香港 ETF 预计将吸引更多亚洲投资者的资金，并可能引入允许投资的实物条款赎回基础比特币。

Long-Term Implications

长期影响

The Bitcoin halving underscores the cryptocurrency's designed scarcity, similar to precious metals. While volatility is expected in the short term, the long-term perspective remains bullish, driven by both reduced supply and increasing institutional demand.

比特币减半凸显了加密货币的设计稀缺性，类似于贵金属。尽管短期内预计会出现波动，但在供应减少和机构需求增加的推动下，长期前景仍然看涨。

The supply shock triggered by the halving is likely to continue supporting Bitcoin's price surge, as demand outstrips supply. This trend is expected to be reinforced by the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value and the entry of more institutional players into the market.

由于需求超过供应，减半引发的供应冲击可能会继续支撑比特币价格飙升。由于越来越多地采用比特币作为价值储存手段以及更多机构参与者进入市场，这一趋势预计将得到加强。

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin halving has created a supply shock that is driving price surges. The interplay of reduced supply and increased demand, fueled by institutional involvement, suggests a positive long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. As Bitcoin navigates its fifth epoch, the halving underscores its scarcity and reinforces its potential as a digital asset with a finite supply.

比特币减半造成了供应冲击，推动价格飙升。在机构参与的推动下，供应减少和需求增加相互作用，表明加密货币的长期前景乐观。随着比特币进入第五个时代，减半凸显了其稀缺性，并增强了其作为供应有限的数字资产的潜力。