比特幣減半引發巨大的價格飆升前景

4 月 19 日，比特幣第四次減半顯著降低了通膨率，可能導致價格大幅升值。從歷史上看，減半導致比特幣價值在減半發生當年平均上漲 125%，隨後幾年漲幅甚至更高。在現有的供應衝擊和現貨比特幣ETF 的推出的情況下，由於ETF 的可訪問性以及以超過其每日產量的速度購買比特幣的能力，此次減半為尋求比特幣投資的投資者提供了獨特的機會。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Significant Price Appreciation

比特幣減半：價格大幅升值的催化劑

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, the halving of Bitcoin (BTC -2.43%) stands as a pivotal event with far-reaching implications for its price trajectory. On April 19, 2023, Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving, a watershed moment in its journey to establish itself as a formidable store of value.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣格局中，比特幣減半（BTC -2.43%）是一個關鍵事件，對其價格軌跡產生深遠影響。 2023 年 4 月 19 日，比特幣經歷了第四次減半，這是其確立自身作為強大價值儲存手段的歷程中的一個分水嶺。

Concept of Halving

減半的概念

The halving, occurring approximately every four years or 210,000 blocks added to the blockchain, represents a significant reduction in the rewards granted to miners for solving blocks, a process known as proof of work. As the primary means by which new Bitcoins enter circulation, this halving effectively slashes Bitcoin's inflation rate.

減半大約每四年發生一次，即區塊鏈中添加 210,000 個區塊，這意味著礦工解決區塊的獎勵大幅減少，這一過程稱為工作量證明。作為新比特幣進入流通的主要方式，減半有效地降低了比特幣的通貨膨脹率。

With the fourth halving now complete, Bitcoin's inflation rate stands at a mere 0.85%, making it less inflationary than gold. This systematic reduction in its inflation rate will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoin is projected to be mined. This stringent monetary policy prioritizes scarcity and finiteness, underscoring Bitcoin's unique position in the financial ecosystem.

隨著第四次減半現已完成，比特幣的通膨率僅為 0.85%，使其通膨率低於黃金。這種通貨膨脹率的系統性降低將持續到 2140 年，屆時預計將開採最後一個比特幣。這種嚴格的貨幣政策優先考慮稀缺性和有限性，凸顯了比特幣在金融生態系統中的獨特地位。

Historical Impact of Halvings

減半的歷史影響

Historical analysis reveals a compelling pattern surrounding Bitcoin's price movements following halving events. In the years immediately following a halving, Bitcoin has historically delivered an average return of approximately 125%. If this trend persists, it suggests that Bitcoin's price could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, based on its value at the commencement of 2023.

歷史分析揭示了減半事件後圍繞比特幣價格走勢的引人注目的模式。在減半後的幾年裡，比特幣歷史上的平均回報率約為 125%。如果這種趨勢持續下去，那麼基於 2023 年初的價值，比特幣的價格可能會在 2024 年底達到 10 萬美元。

Furthermore, the most substantial gains typically materialize in the years succeeding a halving. During these periods, Bitcoin has, on average, experienced growth in excess of 400%. Should the latest halving follow this established pattern, Bitcoin's price could potentially surge to approximately $500,000 by 2025.

此外，最實質的收益通常會在減半後的幾年內實現。在此期間，比特幣平均成長超過 400%。如果最新的減半遵循這一既定模式，到 2025 年，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至約 50 萬美元。

Contributing Factors to Price Appreciation

價格升值的影響因素

While the halving alone exerts a profound influence on Bitcoin's price, several additional factors converge to amplify its impact during this particular halving cycle.

雖然減半本身就對比特幣的價格產生了深遠的影響，但在這個特定的減半週期中，其他幾個因素的共同作用放大了其影響。

Existing Supply Shock:

現有供應衝擊：

This halving is unique in that it coincided with an existing supply shock. Leading up to the event, the number of Bitcoins held on exchanges plummeted, reaching its lowest levels since 2018. This unprecedented supply constraint further exacerbates the impact of the halving, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation meets an increased demand.

這次減半的獨特之處在於它恰逢現有的供應衝擊。在此事件發生之前，交易所持有的比特幣數量大幅下降，達到2018 年以來的最低水準。需求的增加。

Introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs:

比特幣現貨ETF介紹：

The advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs has introduced a new wave of investors into the Bitcoin market. These ETFs provide a convenient and regulated avenue for individuals to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities associated with traditional cryptocurrency exchanges. This broader investor base lowers the barriers to entry and could drive significant capital inflows into Bitcoin.

現貨比特幣 ETF 的出現為比特幣市場引入了新一波投資者。這些 ETF 為個人提供了一種便捷且受監管的途徑來獲得比特幣，而無需傳統加密貨幣交易所帶來的複雜性。更廣泛的投資者基礎降低了進入壁壘，並可能推動大量資本流入比特幣。

ETF Buying Spree:

ETF 買熱潮：

The initial demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs was overwhelming, with the 11 approved ETFs collectively purchasing at a rate 10 times greater than Bitcoin's daily production level. While the buying frenzy has since subsided, the potential for renewed ETF inflows at similar levels would exert immense pressure on Bitcoin's price, given the reduced supply resulting from the halving.

最初對現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求是巨大的，11 隻批准的 ETF 的購買速度是比特幣每日生產水準的 10 倍。雖然購買狂潮此後已經消退，但考慮到減半導致的供應減少，ETF 重新流入類似水平的可能性將對比特幣的價格造成巨大壓力。

Conclusion

結論

The combination of the halving, existing supply shock, and spot Bitcoin ETFs creates a compelling case for the continuation of Bitcoin's price appreciation. While the precise trajectory remains uncertain, the historical precedents and fundamental factors suggest the potential for significant gains.

減半、現有的供應衝擊和現貨比特幣 ETF 的結合為比特幣價格的持續升值創造了令人信服的理由。儘管準確的軌跡仍不確定，但歷史先例和基本面因素顯示了重大進展的潛力。

As the effects of the halving ripple through the market in the coming months, seasoned investors are seizing the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin in anticipation of its future ascent. Despite Bitcoin's current price hovering near $66,000, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a confluence of factors fueling its potential for substantial growth.

隨著減半的影響在未來幾個月波及整個市場，經驗豐富的投資者正在抓住機會累積比特幣，以期待其未來的上漲。儘管比特幣目前的價格徘徊在 66,000 美元附近，但長期前景仍然看漲，多種因素共同推動了其大幅增長的潛力。