比特幣減半迫在眉睫，市場為潛在波動做好準備

4 月 20 日的比特幣減半預計將使每日新增挖礦供應量減少一半，可能導致比特幣價格上漲。然而，伊朗和以色列之間的地緣政治緊張局勢影響了市場情緒，導致比特幣價值下跌。香港監管機構預計很快就會批准現貨比特幣和以太坊 ETF，這可能會吸引傳統投資者進入加密貨幣市場。

The Impending Bitcoin Halving: Anticipation and Market Implications

即將到來的比特幣減半：預期和市場影響

The highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, 2024, looms on the horizon, promising a significant reduction in the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin. This event has historically sparked excitement and speculation in the cryptocurrency market, with investors and analysts eagerly monitoring Bitcoin's price trajectory. As the halving approaches, the market is also being closely watched for its response to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which have recently weighed heavily on Bitcoin's value.

備受期待的第四次比特幣減半即將到來，預計 2024 年 4 月 20 日進行，新開採的比特幣每日供應量將大幅減少。這一事件歷來引發了加密貨幣市場的興奮和投機，投資者和分析師熱切地關注比特幣的價格軌跡。隨著減半的臨近，市場對伊朗和以色列之間地緣政治緊張局勢的反應也受到密切關注，這些緊張局勢最近嚴重影響了比特幣的價值。

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: Regulatory Greenlight in Hong Kong

現貨比特幣和以太幣 ETF：香港監管綠燈

Regulators in Hong Kong, a major financial hub, are expected to approve the launch of Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the coming days. These ETFs, managed by a subsidiary of Harvest Fund Management from China and Bosera Asset Management in partnership with HashKey Capital, are likely to be the first of their kind to receive regulatory approval. Market participants anticipate their launch by the end of April.

主要金融中心香港的監管機構預計將在未來幾天批准推出現貨比特幣和以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）。這些ETF由中國嘉實基金管理公司的子公司和博時資產管理公司與HashKey Capital合作管理，很可能是同類中首個獲得監管機構批准的ETF。市場參與者預計它們將於四月底推出。

US SEC Dampens Ethereum ETF Hopes

美國 SEC 削弱以太坊 ETF 的希望

In contrast to the positive regulatory developments in Hong Kong, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is casting doubt on the prospects of approval for Spot Ethereum ETFs. VanEck, a leading fund manager in the Bitcoin ETF space, expects the SEC to reject such applications in May. Bloomberg ETF analysts have also downgraded the probability of approval from 70% to 30%.

與香港積極的監管發展相反，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）對現貨以太坊 ETF 的批准前景表示懷疑。比特幣 ETF 領域領先的基金經理 VanEck 預計 SEC 將在 5 月拒絕此類申請。彭博 ETF 分析師也將批准機率從 70% 下調至 30%。

Retail Investors Dominate Bitcoin ETF Landscape

散戶主導比特幣 ETF 格局

Despite the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs, traditional investors in money and equity markets have yet to embrace these products, according to VanEck. While there are some large entities and institutional investors involved, a staggering 90% of ETF investors remain individuals. Notably, no US banks have been officially approved or licensed as financial advisors for Bitcoin.

VanEck 表示，儘管比特幣 ETF 越來越受歡迎，但貨幣和股票市場的傳統投資者尚未接受這些產品。雖然有一些大型實體和機構投資者參與其中，但令人震驚的是 90% 的 ETF 投資者仍然是個人。值得注意的是，目前還沒有美國銀行被正式批准或許可作為比特幣的財務顧問。

Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Dwindling

交易所的比特幣供應減少

Analysis by Bybit suggests that the fourth halving will likely deplete Bitcoin's supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) within the next nine months. Currently, only 2 million BTC remain on exchanges, with an estimated daily inflow of 7,142 BTC from Bitcoin ETFs worth approximately $500 million.

Bybit 的分析表明，第四次減半可能會在未來九個月內耗盡中心化交易所（CEX）上的比特幣供應。目前，交易所上只剩下 200 萬枚 BTC，預計每日從比特幣 ETF 流入 7,142 枚 BTC，價值約 5 億美元。

Slowdown in Buying Momentum for Bitcoin ETFs

比特幣 ETF 購買勢頭放緩

CryptoQuant reports a slowdown in buying momentum for Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks. After a peak in March, only Grayscale and BlackRock ETFs saw significant capital inflows over the weekend.

CryptoQuant 報告稱，過去 4 週比特幣 ETF 的購買勢頭有所放緩。在 3 月的高峰之後，只有灰階 ETF 和貝萊德 ETF 在周末出現了大量資金流入。

Ethereum Layer 2 Usage Surge Post-Shanghai Upgrade

上海昇級後以太坊第2層使用激增

The latest analysis from Intotheblock reveals a significant increase in Ethereum's Layer 2 usage following the Dencun upgrade. Base takes the lead with 57% of transactions, followed by Arbitrium and Optimism with 31% and 11%, respectively.

Intotheblock 的最新分析顯示，在 Dencun 升級後，以太坊第 2 層的使用量顯著增加。 Base 以 57% 的交易量領先，其次是 Arbitrium 和 Optimism，分別佔 31% 和 11%。

Weekly Technical Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Tron

每週技術分析：比特幣、以太坊、幣安幣、波場

Bitcoin (BTC)

比特幣（BTC）

BTC has fallen to $60,600, but has not yet reached a new low. The price trend remains weak, with the potential for further declines. Alternatively, a move above $67,000 could signal an improvement in sentiment.

BTC已跌至60,600美元，但尚未創出新低。價格趨勢依然疲軟，有進一步下跌的可能性。或者，突破 67,000 美元可能預示著市場情緒的改善。

Ethereum (ETH)

以太坊（ETH）

ETH has been under selling pressure and is facing resistance at $3,300. A break below $3,000 could prompt investors to delay investments until a price recovery.

ETH 一直面臨拋售壓力，並面臨 3,300 美元的阻力。跌破 3,000 美元可能會促使投資者推遲投資，直到價格回升。

Binance Coin (BNB)

幣安幣 (BNB)

BNB fell 5.84% last week. Market participants should monitor the support price of $18,400. If it holds, a recovery towards $22,000 may be possible in the short term.

BNB上週下跌5.84%。市場參與者應關注18,400美元的支撐位。如果它保持不變，短期內可能會反彈至 22,000 美元。

Tron (TRX)

波場 (TRX)

TRX declined by 8.72% last week. The crucial support level at $0.0974 is under threat. If broken, further downside pressure may ensue.

TRX上週下跌8.72%。 0.0974 美元的關鍵支撐位受到威脅。如果突破，可能會帶來進一步的下行壓力。

Trading and Investment Considerations for the Week

本週交易和投資注意事項

• US inflation data for March came in slightly higher than expected at 3.3%, impacting Bitcoin prices.
• The Federal Reserve Chair has indicated that inflation in the US is showing no signs of easing, raising concerns about further monetary tightening.
• US government bond yields and the US dollar have strengthened due to geopolitical tensions, attracting capital flows away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.
• The ongoing war between Iran and Israel is expected to negatively impact Bitcoin prices, especially if ETFs are used as a hedge against portfolio risk.
• A prolonged conflict could have short-term bearish effects, but a quick resolution may lead to a recovery.
• Bitcoin's Dominance Index has reached a three-year high, suppressing altcoin prices. Artificial intelligence (AI) and Layer-1 blockchains remain pockets of strength.
• The Bitcoin halving on April 20 could have a limited impact on prices, with the Iran-Israeli conflict remaining a major factor. A drop below $60,000 could trigger further corrections, while maintaining above this level could present an opportunity to retest all-time highs.

Disclaimer:

美國3月通膨數據略高於預期，為3.3%，影響了比特幣價格。政治緊張局勢，美元走強，吸引資金從比特幣等風險較高的資產流出。 。人工智慧 (AI) 和 Layer-1 區塊鏈仍然具有優勢。跌破 60,000 美元可能會引發進一步修正，而維持在該水平之上可能會提供重新測試歷史高點的機會。

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policy of any agency, organization, or company.

本文所表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者的觀點和意見，不一定反映任何機構、組織或公司的官方立場或政策。