比特币减半迫在眉睫，市场为潜在波动做好准备

4 月 20 日的比特币减半预计将使每日新增挖矿供应量减少一半，可能导致比特币价格上涨。然而，伊朗和以色列之间的地缘政治紧张局势影响了市场情绪，导致比特币价值下跌。香港监管机构预计将很快批准现货比特币和以太坊 ETF，这可能会吸引传统投资者进入加密货币市场。

The Impending Bitcoin Halving: Anticipation and Market Implications

即将到来的比特币减半：预期和市场影响

The highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, 2024, looms on the horizon, promising a significant reduction in the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin. This event has historically sparked excitement and speculation in the cryptocurrency market, with investors and analysts eagerly monitoring Bitcoin's price trajectory. As the halving approaches, the market is also being closely watched for its response to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which have recently weighed heavily on Bitcoin's value.

备受期待的第四次比特币减半即将到来，预计将于 2024 年 4 月 20 日进行，新开采的比特币每日供应量将大幅减少。这一事件历来引发了加密货币市场的兴奋和投机，投资者和分析师热切地关注比特币的价格轨迹。随着减半的临近，市场对伊朗和以色列之间地缘政治紧张局势的反应也受到密切关注，这些紧张局势最近严重影响了比特币的价值。

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: Regulatory Greenlight in Hong Kong

现货比特币和以太坊 ETF：香港监管绿灯

Regulators in Hong Kong, a major financial hub, are expected to approve the launch of Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the coming days. These ETFs, managed by a subsidiary of Harvest Fund Management from China and Bosera Asset Management in partnership with HashKey Capital, are likely to be the first of their kind to receive regulatory approval. Market participants anticipate their launch by the end of April.

主要金融中心香港的监管机构预计将在未来几天批准推出现货比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）。这些ETF由中国嘉实基金管理公司的子公司和博时资产管理公司与HashKey Capital合作管理，很可能是同类中首个获得监管机构批准的ETF。市场参与者预计它们将于四月底推出。

US SEC Dampens Ethereum ETF Hopes

美国 SEC 削弱以太坊 ETF 的希望

In contrast to the positive regulatory developments in Hong Kong, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is casting doubt on the prospects of approval for Spot Ethereum ETFs. VanEck, a leading fund manager in the Bitcoin ETF space, expects the SEC to reject such applications in May. Bloomberg ETF analysts have also downgraded the probability of approval from 70% to 30%.

与香港积极的监管发展相反，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）对现货以太坊 ETF 的批准前景表示怀疑。比特币 ETF 领域领先的基金经理 VanEck 预计 SEC 将在 5 月份拒绝此类申请。彭博 ETF 分析师也将批准概率从 70% 下调至 30%。

Retail Investors Dominate Bitcoin ETF Landscape

散户投资者主导比特币 ETF 格局

Despite the growing popularity of Bitcoin ETFs, traditional investors in money and equity markets have yet to embrace these products, according to VanEck. While there are some large entities and institutional investors involved, a staggering 90% of ETF investors remain individuals. Notably, no US banks have been officially approved or licensed as financial advisors for Bitcoin.

VanEck 表示，尽管比特币 ETF 越来越受欢迎，但货币和股票市场的传统投资者尚未接受这些产品。虽然有一些大型实体和机构投资者参与其中，但令人震惊的是 90% 的 ETF 投资者仍然是个人。值得注意的是，目前还没有美国银行被正式批准或许可作为比特币的财务顾问。

Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Dwindling

交易所的比特币供应减少

Analysis by Bybit suggests that the fourth halving will likely deplete Bitcoin's supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) within the next nine months. Currently, only 2 million BTC remain on exchanges, with an estimated daily inflow of 7,142 BTC from Bitcoin ETFs worth approximately $500 million.

Bybit 的分析表明，第四次减半可能会在未来九个月内耗尽中心化交易所（CEX）上的比特币供应。目前，交易所上只剩下 200 万枚 BTC，预计每日从比特币 ETF 流入 7,142 枚 BTC，价值约 5 亿美元。

Slowdown in Buying Momentum for Bitcoin ETFs

比特币 ETF 购买势头放缓

CryptoQuant reports a slowdown in buying momentum for Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks. After a peak in March, only Grayscale and BlackRock ETFs saw significant capital inflows over the weekend.

CryptoQuant 报告称，过去 4 周比特币 ETF 的购买势头有所放缓。在 3 月份的高峰之后，只有灰度 ETF 和贝莱德 ETF 在周末出现了大量资金流入。

Ethereum Layer 2 Usage Surge Post-Shanghai Upgrade

上海升级后以太坊第2层使用激增

The latest analysis from Intotheblock reveals a significant increase in Ethereum's Layer 2 usage following the Dencun upgrade. Base takes the lead with 57% of transactions, followed by Arbitrium and Optimism with 31% and 11%, respectively.

Intotheblock 的最新分析显示，在 Dencun 升级之后，以太坊第 2 层的使用量显着增加。 Base 以 57% 的交易量领先，其次是 Arbitrium 和 Optimism，分别占 31% 和 11%。

Weekly Technical Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Tron

每周技术分析：比特币、以太坊、币安币、波场

Bitcoin (BTC)

比特币（BTC）

BTC has fallen to $60,600, but has not yet reached a new low. The price trend remains weak, with the potential for further declines. Alternatively, a move above $67,000 could signal an improvement in sentiment.

BTC已跌至60,600美元，但尚未创出新低。价格趋势依然疲软，有进一步下跌的可能性。或者，突破 67,000 美元可能预示着市场情绪的改善。

Ethereum (ETH)

以太坊（ETH）

ETH has been under selling pressure and is facing resistance at $3,300. A break below $3,000 could prompt investors to delay investments until a price recovery.

ETH 一直面临抛售压力，并面临 3,300 美元的阻力。跌破 3,000 美元可能会促使投资者推迟投资，直至价格回升。

Binance Coin (BNB)

币安币 (BNB)

BNB fell 5.84% last week. Market participants should monitor the support price of $18,400. If it holds, a recovery towards $22,000 may be possible in the short term.

BNB上周下跌5.84%。市场参与者应关注18,400美元的支撑位。如果它保持不变，短期内可能会反弹至 22,000 美元。

Tron (TRX)

波场 (TRX)

TRX declined by 8.72% last week. The crucial support level at $0.0974 is under threat. If broken, further downside pressure may ensue.

TRX上周下跌8.72%。 0.0974 美元的关键支撑位受到威胁。如果突破，可能会带来进一步的下行压力。

Trading and Investment Considerations for the Week

本周交易和投资注意事项

• US inflation data for March came in slightly higher than expected at 3.3%, impacting Bitcoin prices.
• The Federal Reserve Chair has indicated that inflation in the US is showing no signs of easing, raising concerns about further monetary tightening.
• US government bond yields and the US dollar have strengthened due to geopolitical tensions, attracting capital flows away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.
• The ongoing war between Iran and Israel is expected to negatively impact Bitcoin prices, especially if ETFs are used as a hedge against portfolio risk.
• A prolonged conflict could have short-term bearish effects, but a quick resolution may lead to a recovery.
• Bitcoin's Dominance Index has reached a three-year high, suppressing altcoin prices. Artificial intelligence (AI) and Layer-1 blockchains remain pockets of strength.
• The Bitcoin halving on April 20 could have a limited impact on prices, with the Iran-Israeli conflict remaining a major factor. A drop below $60,000 could trigger further corrections, while maintaining above this level could present an opportunity to retest all-time highs.

Disclaimer:

美国3月份通胀数据略高于预期，为3.3%，影响了比特币价格。美联储主席表示，美国通胀没有出现缓解迹象，引发了人们对进一步收紧货币政策的担忧。美国国债收益率和由于地缘政治紧张局势，美元走强，吸引资金从比特币等风险较高的资产流出。伊朗和以色列之间持续的战争预计将对比特币价格产生负面影响，特别是如果 ETF 被用作对冲投资组合风险的话。长期冲突可能会具有短期看跌影响，但快速解决可能会导致复苏。比特币的优势指数已达到三年高位，打压山寨币价格。人工智能 (AI) 和 Layer-1 区块链仍然具有优势。 4 月 20 日的比特币减半可能对价格产生有限的影响，伊朗和以色列冲突仍然是一个主要因素。跌破 60,000 美元可能会引发进一步修正，而维持在该水平之上可能会提供重新测试历史高点的机会。免责声明：

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policy of any agency, organization, or company.

本文表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映任何机构、组织或公司的官方立场或政策。