隨著長期投資者推動需求，比特幣減半的影響力減弱

CryptoQuant 認為，2024 年比特幣減半對其價格的影響正在減弱，因為長期持有者和大規模投資者的需求，而不是減半事件，正在推動當前的牛市。

Bitcoin Halving: Diminishing Impact and New Market Dynamics

比特幣減半：影響減弱和新的市場動態

The impending Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has ignited a heated debate within the cryptocurrency community, with some analysts predicting a significant price surge and others downplaying its potential impact. However, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics firm, challenges the traditional narrative, asserting that the halving's influence on Bitcoin's price has been gradually diminishing.

即將到來的 2024 年 4 月比特幣減半引發了加密貨幣社群的激烈爭論，一些分析師預測價格將大幅上漲，而另一些分析師則淡化其潛在影響。然而，領先的加密分析公司 CryptoQuant 最近的一項分析挑戰了傳統的說法，聲稱減半對比特幣價格的影響正在逐漸減弱。

CryptoQuant's research argues that the halving, a scheduled event where the block reward for Bitcoin miners is halved, no longer holds the same pivotal role as in previous halving cycles. The firm attributes this shift to a number of factors, including declining issuance and increasing demand from long-term investors.

CryptoQuant 的研究認為，減半是一項預定事件，比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵減半，不再像先前的減半週期那樣發揮關鍵作用。該公司將這種轉變歸因於多種因素，包括發行量下降和長期投資者需求增加。

Waning Influence of Halving

減半影響減弱

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price surges due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market. However, CryptoQuant contends that the halving's impact has been diminishing with each cycle. The firm's research suggests that the halving's effect on Bitcoin's supply is becoming less pronounced over time, as it becomes a smaller proportion of the total supply.

從歷史上看，由於進入市場的新比特幣供應減少，比特幣減半與價格飆升有關。然而，CryptoQuant 認為，減半的影響隨著每個週期而逐漸減弱。該公司的研究表明，隨著時間的推移，減半對比特幣供應的影響變得不那麼明顯，因為它在總供應量中所佔的比例越來越小。

"We argue that the effect of the halving has been diminishing, as the new issuance of Bitcoin gets smaller relative to the amount of Bitcoin selling from long-term holders," CryptoQuant wrote in its report.

CryptoQuant 在報告中寫道：“我們認為，減半的影響一直在減弱，因為新發行的比特幣相對於長期持有者出售的比特幣數量越來越小。”

Surging Demand from Long-Term Investors

長期投資者的需求激增

While the halving's impact may be waning, CryptoQuant highlights a new market dynamic that is driving Bitcoin's price: surging demand from long-term investors, known as "whales."

雖然減半的影響可能正在減弱，但 CryptoQuant 凸顯了一種推動比特幣價格上漲的新市場動態：長期投資者（即「鯨魚」）需求的激增。

Julio Monero, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, revealed that for the first time in Bitcoin's history, demand from persistent holders has exceeded issuance. "This suggests that the long-term holders are absorbing all the coins that are being produced every day, and in fact they are buying even more than that," Monero said.

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Monero 透露，比特幣史上第一次，持續持有者的需求超過了發行量。門羅表示：“這表明長期持有者正在吸收每天生產的所有代幣，事實上他們購買的數量甚至更多。”

The report notes a surge in large-scale Bitcoin investors, those holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, who have accumulated record levels of Bitcoin in recent months. This trend contrasts with the supply dynamics and indicates a healthy appetite for Bitcoin after the halving event.

該報告指出，持有 1,000 至 10,000 枚比特幣的大型比特幣投資者數量激增，近幾個月來，他們的比特幣持有量創下了歷史新高。這一趨勢與供應動態形成鮮明對比，顯示減半事件後對比特幣的健康需求。

Bullish Sentiment Despite Diminished Halving Impact

儘管減半影響減弱，但看漲情緒

Despite CryptoQuant's analysis, a number of analysts continue to hold an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin post-halving. Some, like Joe Consorti, predict a surge to $100,000 after the halving, citing historical correlations between the halving event and price surges.

儘管 CryptoQuant 進行了分析，但許多分析師仍然對比特幣減半後的前景感到樂觀。 Joe Consorti 等一些人預測減半後價格將飆升至 10 萬美元，理由是減半事件與價格飆升之間的歷史相關性。

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also surged to record levels, indicating that investors remain largely bullish on Bitcoin's future value and view price dips as buying opportunities.

比特幣期貨的未平倉合約也飆升至創紀錄水平，顯示投資者仍然基本上看好比特幣的未來價值，並將價格下跌視為買入機會。

However, a recent Bitcoin price chart suggests that Bitcoin bulls are currently facing resistance from bears, indicating a mixed market sentiment approaching the halving event.

然而，最近的比特幣價格圖表表明，比特幣多頭目前面臨空頭的阻力，這表明接近減半事件時市場情緒好壞參半。

Conclusion

結論

CryptoQuant's analysis casts a new light on the potential impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. While the halving may not trigger the same drastic price surge as in previous cycles, it is likely to contribute to a supportive market environment for Bitcoin. Surging demand from long-term investors and a bullish sentiment among many analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price trajectory post-halving remains uncertain but promising.

CryptoQuant 的分析為即將到來的比特幣減半的潛在影響提供了新的視角。雖然減半可能不會像之前的周期那樣引發價格大幅上漲，但它可能會為比特幣創造一個支持性的市場環境。長期投資者的需求激增以及許多分析師的看漲情緒表明，比特幣減半後的價格軌跡仍然不確定，但充滿希望。