随着长期投资者推动需求，比特币减半的影响减弱

CryptoQuant 认为，2024 年比特币减半对其价格的影响正在减弱，因为长期持有者和大规模投资者的需求，而不是减半事件，正在推动当前的牛市。

Bitcoin Halving: Diminishing Impact and New Market Dynamics

比特币减半：影响减弱和新的市场动态

The impending Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has ignited a heated debate within the cryptocurrency community, with some analysts predicting a significant price surge and others downplaying its potential impact. However, a recent analysis by CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics firm, challenges the traditional narrative, asserting that the halving's influence on Bitcoin's price has been gradually diminishing.

即将到来的 2024 年 4 月比特币减半引发了加密货币社区的激烈争论，一些分析师预测价格将大幅上涨，而另一些分析师则淡化其潜在影响。然而，领先的加密分析公司 CryptoQuant 最近的一项分析挑战了传统的说法，声称减半对比特币价格的影响正在逐渐减弱。

CryptoQuant's research argues that the halving, a scheduled event where the block reward for Bitcoin miners is halved, no longer holds the same pivotal role as in previous halving cycles. The firm attributes this shift to a number of factors, including declining issuance and increasing demand from long-term investors.

CryptoQuant 的研究认为，减半是一项预定事件，比特币矿工的区块奖励减半，不再像之前的减半周期那样发挥关键作用。该公司将这种转变归因于多种因素，包括发行量下降和长期投资者需求增加。

Waning Influence of Halving

减半影响减弱

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with price surges due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market. However, CryptoQuant contends that the halving's impact has been diminishing with each cycle. The firm's research suggests that the halving's effect on Bitcoin's supply is becoming less pronounced over time, as it becomes a smaller proportion of the total supply.

从历史上看，由于进入市场的新比特币供应减少，比特币减半与价格飙升有关。然而，CryptoQuant 认为，减半的影响随着每个周期而逐渐减弱。该公司的研究表明，随着时间的推移，减半对比特币供应的影响变得不那么明显，因为它在总供应量中所占的比例越来越小。

"We argue that the effect of the halving has been diminishing, as the new issuance of Bitcoin gets smaller relative to the amount of Bitcoin selling from long-term holders," CryptoQuant wrote in its report.

CryptoQuant 在报告中写道：“我们认为，减半的影响一直在减弱，因为新发行的比特币相对于长期持有者出售的比特币数量越来越小。”

Surging Demand from Long-Term Investors

长期投资者的需求激增

While the halving's impact may be waning, CryptoQuant highlights a new market dynamic that is driving Bitcoin's price: surging demand from long-term investors, known as "whales."

虽然减半的影响可能正在减弱，但 CryptoQuant 凸显了一种推动比特币价格上涨的新市场动态：长期投资者（即“鲸鱼”）需求的激增。

Julio Monero, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, revealed that for the first time in Bitcoin's history, demand from persistent holders has exceeded issuance. "This suggests that the long-term holders are absorbing all the coins that are being produced every day, and in fact they are buying even more than that," Monero said.

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Monero 透露，比特币历史上第一次，持续持有者的需求超过了发行量。门罗表示：“这表明长期持有者正在吸收每天生产的所有代币，事实上他们购买的数量甚至更多。”

The report notes a surge in large-scale Bitcoin investors, those holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, who have accumulated record levels of Bitcoin in recent months. This trend contrasts with the supply dynamics and indicates a healthy appetite for Bitcoin after the halving event.

该报告指出，持有 1,000 至 10,000 枚比特币的大型比特币投资者数量激增，近几个月来，他们的比特币持有量创下了历史新高。这一趋势与供应动态形成鲜明对比，表明减半事件后对比特币的健康需求。

Bullish Sentiment Despite Diminished Halving Impact

尽管减半影响减弱，但看涨情绪

Despite CryptoQuant's analysis, a number of analysts continue to hold an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin post-halving. Some, like Joe Consorti, predict a surge to $100,000 after the halving, citing historical correlations between the halving event and price surges.

尽管 CryptoQuant 进行了分析，但许多分析师仍然对比特币减半后的前景持乐观态度。 Joe Consorti 等一些人预测减半后价格将飙升至 10 万美元，理由是减半事件与价格飙升之间的历史相关性。

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has also surged to record levels, indicating that investors remain largely bullish on Bitcoin's future value and view price dips as buying opportunities.

比特币期货的未平仓合约也飙升至创纪录水平，表明投资者仍然基本看好比特币的未来价值，并将价格下跌视为买入机会。

However, a recent Bitcoin price chart suggests that Bitcoin bulls are currently facing resistance from bears, indicating a mixed market sentiment approaching the halving event.

然而，最近的比特币价格图表表明，比特币多头目前面临空头的阻力，这表明临近减半事件时市场情绪好坏参半。

Conclusion

结论

CryptoQuant's analysis casts a new light on the potential impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. While the halving may not trigger the same drastic price surge as in previous cycles, it is likely to contribute to a supportive market environment for Bitcoin. Surging demand from long-term investors and a bullish sentiment among many analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price trajectory post-halving remains uncertain but promising.

CryptoQuant 的分析为即将到来的比特币减半的潜在影响提供了新的视角。虽然减半可能不会像之前的周期那样引发价格大幅上涨，但它可能会为比特币创造一个支持性的市场环境。长期投资者的需求激增以及许多分析师的看涨情绪表明，比特币减半后的价格轨迹仍然不确定，但充满希望。