比特幣減半影響減弱，需求推動減半後價格飆升

CryptoQuant 分析師斷言，減半事件對比特幣價值的影響正在減弱，預計減半後影響較小。這是由於長期持有者的發行量相對於銷售量減少，凸顯需求是主要的價格驅動因素。即將到來的減半將進一步減少發行量，由於大持有者的強勁需求增長，可能會推高價格，這是近期比特幣飆升的主要催化劑。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact: Diminishing Effect and Demand-Driven Price Post-Halving

比特幣減半的影響：減半後影響遞減與需求驅動的價格

CryptoQuant, a reputable crypto market analytics platform, has released a comprehensive report delving into the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings and the significant role of demand in driving Bitcoin's value post-halving.

著名的加密貨幣市場分析平台 CryptoQuant 發布了一份綜合報告，深入探討了比特幣減半的影響逐漸減弱以及需求在減半後推動比特幣價值的重要作用。

According to the report, the reduction in new Bitcoin issuance, coupled with the increasing selling activity by long-term holders, has been diminishing the effect of halvings on Bitcoin's price. The issuance of Bitcoin has significantly declined in relation to the amount being sold by long-term holders, indicating that demand will be the primary catalyst for price movements following the upcoming halving.

報告稱，新比特幣發行量的減少，加上長期持有者拋售活動的增加，已經削弱了減半對比特幣價格的影響。比特幣的發行量相對於長期持有者出售的數量大幅下降，這表明需求將成為即將到來的減半後價格走勢的主要催化劑。

Data from the report reveals that Bitcoin's monthly issuance has decreased to a mere 4% of the total available supply. This contrasts sharply with the 69%, 27%, and 10% of the available BTC supply that were issued before the first, second, and third halvings, respectively. In the past year, Bitcoin issuance has averaged approximately 28,000 BTC per month, while long-term holders have offloaded a staggering 417,000 BTC within the same period.

報告數據顯示，比特幣每月發行量僅佔可用供應總量的 4%。這與第一次、第二次和第三次減半前發行的可用 BTC 供應量分別為 69%、27% 和 10% 形成鮮明對比。去年，比特幣平均每月發行量約為 28,000 BTC，而長期持有者同期拋售的 BTC 數量達到驚人的 417,000 BTC。

For the first time in history, demand from long-term Bitcoin holders has surpassed issuance, with this group of investors adding roughly 200,000 BTC to their balances on a monthly basis. This far exceeds the 28,000 BTC that is currently being issued.

歷史上第一次，長期比特幣持有者的需求超過了發行量，這群投資者每月增加約 20 萬比特幣到他們的餘額中。這遠遠超過了目前發行的 28,000 BTC。

Analysts at CryptoQuant have identified a correlation between long-term holder Bitcoin spending and the price cycle. Bitcoin typically reaches its bottom during periods of low long-term holder spending and peaks at times of extremely high spending relative to the total supply. At the time of writing, long-term holder spending is at relatively low levels.

CryptoQuant 的分析師已經發現，長期持有比特幣的支出與價格週期之間存在相關性。比特幣通常在長期持有者支出較低的時期達到谷底，在支出相對於總供應量極高的時期達到高峰。截至撰寫本文時，長期持有者支出處於相對較低的水平。

Following the upcoming Bitcoin halving on April 20, the monthly issuance will decline further to approximately 14,000 BTC. This decline in issuance will place even greater emphasis on demand growth as the driving force for higher Bitcoin prices.

隨著4月20日即將到來的比特幣減半，每月發行量將進一步下降至約14,000 BTC。發行量的下降將更加強調需求成長作為比特幣價格上漲的驅動力。

In previous halving cycles, the surge in Bitcoin demand from large holders and whales has fueled the post-halving price rallies. With the current demand growth hovering around 11% month-on-month, reaching its highest level ever, it is clear that this factor has been the primary impetus behind recent BTC surges.

在先前的減半週期中，大持有者和鯨魚的比特幣需求激增推動了減半後的價格上漲。目前需求月增速徘徊在11%左右，達到歷史最高水平，顯然這一因素是近期BTC飆升的主要動力。

CryptoQuant's insights are supported by the fact that Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high in March, the first time it has done so prior to a halving. This rally was largely driven by surging demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that were launched in January.

CryptoQuant 的見解得到了比特幣最近在 3 月創下歷史新高這一事實的支持，這是比特幣在減半之前首次達到這一水平。此次上漲主要是由一月份推出的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金需求激增所推動的。

However, analysts also caution that selling pressure from OG BTC holders (those with coins aged 5+ years) is likely to increase following the halving. The report states, "Spending from OG Holders is currently at around 8% annualized and historically has been 1.1%, while current issuance (orange area) stands at 1.8% annualized and will drop to ~0.8% annualized after this month's halving."

然而，分析師也警告說，減半後，來自 OG BTC 持有者（持有 5 年以上代幣的人）的拋售壓力可能會增加。報告指出，「OG 持有者的支出目前年化率為8% 左右，歷史上為1.1%，而目前發行量（橘色區域）年化率為1.8%，本月減半後年化率將降至0.8% 左右。

In conclusion, CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will have a more muted impact on BTC's value compared to previous halving events. The diminishing effect of halvings and the growing importance of demand will shape Bitcoin's price trajectory post-halving. Long-term holder demand and the selling pressure from OG BTC holders will be key factors to monitor in the weeks following the halving.

總之，CryptoQuant 的分析表明，與先前的減半事件相比，即將到來的比特幣減半對 BTC 價值的影響更為溫和。減半影響的減弱和需求重要性的日益增加將決定比特幣減半後的價格軌跡。長期持有者需求和 OG BTC 持有者的拋售壓力將是減半後幾週需要監控的關鍵因素。