比特币减半影响减弱，需求推动减半后价格飙升

CryptoQuant 分析师断言，减半事件对比特币价值的影响正在减弱，预计减半后影响较小。这是由于长期持有者的发行量相对于销售量减少，凸显需求是主要的价格驱动因素。即将到来的减半将进一步减少发行量，由于大持有者的强劲需求增长，可能会推高价格，这是近期比特币飙升的主要催化剂。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact: Diminishing Effect and Demand-Driven Price Post-Halving

比特币减半的影响：减半后影响递减和需求驱动的价格

CryptoQuant, a reputable crypto market analytics platform, has released a comprehensive report delving into the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings and the significant role of demand in driving Bitcoin's value post-halving.

著名的加密货币市场分析平台 CryptoQuant 发布了一份综合报告，深入探讨了比特币减半的影响逐渐减弱以及需求在减半后推动比特币价值的重要作用。

According to the report, the reduction in new Bitcoin issuance, coupled with the increasing selling activity by long-term holders, has been diminishing the effect of halvings on Bitcoin's price. The issuance of Bitcoin has significantly declined in relation to the amount being sold by long-term holders, indicating that demand will be the primary catalyst for price movements following the upcoming halving.

该报告称，新比特币发行量的减少，加上长期持有者抛售活动的增加，已经削弱了减半对比特币价格的影响。比特币的发行量相对于长期持有者出售的数量大幅下降，这表明需求将成为即将到来的减半后价格走势的主要催化剂。

Data from the report reveals that Bitcoin's monthly issuance has decreased to a mere 4% of the total available supply. This contrasts sharply with the 69%, 27%, and 10% of the available BTC supply that were issued before the first, second, and third halvings, respectively. In the past year, Bitcoin issuance has averaged approximately 28,000 BTC per month, while long-term holders have offloaded a staggering 417,000 BTC within the same period.

报告数据显示，比特币每月发行量仅占可用供应总量的 4%。这与第一次、第二次和第三次减半之前发行的可用 BTC 供应量分别为 69%、27% 和 10% 形成鲜明对比。去年，比特币平均每月发行量约为 28,000 BTC，而长期持有者同期抛售的 BTC 数量达到惊人的 417,000 BTC。

For the first time in history, demand from long-term Bitcoin holders has surpassed issuance, with this group of investors adding roughly 200,000 BTC to their balances on a monthly basis. This far exceeds the 28,000 BTC that is currently being issued.

历史上第一次，长期比特币持有者的需求超过了发行量，这群投资者每月增加大约 200,000 比特币到他们的余额中。这远远超过了目前发行的 28,000 BTC。

Analysts at CryptoQuant have identified a correlation between long-term holder Bitcoin spending and the price cycle. Bitcoin typically reaches its bottom during periods of low long-term holder spending and peaks at times of extremely high spending relative to the total supply. At the time of writing, long-term holder spending is at relatively low levels.

CryptoQuant 的分析师已经发现，长期持有比特币的支出与价格周期之间存在相关性。比特币通常在长期持有者支出较低的时期达到谷底，在支出相对于总供应量极高的时期达到顶峰。截至撰写本文时，长期持有者支出处于相对较低的水平。

Following the upcoming Bitcoin halving on April 20, the monthly issuance will decline further to approximately 14,000 BTC. This decline in issuance will place even greater emphasis on demand growth as the driving force for higher Bitcoin prices.

随着4月​​20日即将到来的比特币减半，每月发行量将进一步下降至约14,000 BTC。发行量的下降将更加强调需求增长作为比特币价格上涨的驱动力。

In previous halving cycles, the surge in Bitcoin demand from large holders and whales has fueled the post-halving price rallies. With the current demand growth hovering around 11% month-on-month, reaching its highest level ever, it is clear that this factor has been the primary impetus behind recent BTC surges.

在之前的减半周期中，大持有者和鲸鱼的比特币需求激增推动了减半后的价格上涨。目前需求环比增速徘徊在11%左右，达到历史最高水平，显然这一因素是近期BTC飙升的主要推动力。

CryptoQuant's insights are supported by the fact that Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high in March, the first time it has done so prior to a halving. This rally was largely driven by surging demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that were launched in January.

CryptoQuant 的见解得到了比特币最近在 3 月份创下历史新高这一事实的支持，这是比特币在减半之前首次达到这一水平。此次上涨主要是由一月份推出的现货比特币交易所交易基金需求激增推动的。

However, analysts also caution that selling pressure from OG BTC holders (those with coins aged 5+ years) is likely to increase following the halving. The report states, "Spending from OG Holders is currently at around 8% annualized and historically has been 1.1%, while current issuance (orange area) stands at 1.8% annualized and will drop to ~0.8% annualized after this month's halving."

然而，分析师还警告说，减半后，来自 OG BTC 持有者（持有 5 年以上代币的人）的抛售压力可能会增加。该报告指出，“OG 持有者的支出目前年化率为 8% 左右，历史上为 1.1%，而当前发行量（橙色区域）年化率为 1.8%，本月减半后年化率将降至 0.8% 左右。”

In conclusion, CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will have a more muted impact on BTC's value compared to previous halving events. The diminishing effect of halvings and the growing importance of demand will shape Bitcoin's price trajectory post-halving. Long-term holder demand and the selling pressure from OG BTC holders will be key factors to monitor in the weeks following the halving.

总之，CryptoQuant 的分析表明，与之前的减半事件相比，即将到来的比特币减半对 BTC 价值的影响更为温和。减半影响的减弱和需求重要性的日益增加将决定比特币减半后的价格轨迹。长期持有者需求和 OG BTC 持有者的抛售压力将是减半后几周需要监控的关键因素。