比特幣減半週期結束？克魯格表示比特幣正在進入一個新的“超級週期”

比特幣 (BTC) 的交易價格繼續比歷史最高點低約 14%，但根據著名經濟學家和交易員 Alex Krüger 的說法，這種數位資產還遠未達到頂峰。

renowned economist and trader Alex Krüger shares his bullish outlook on Bitcoin's future price trajectory. Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Krüger suggests that BTC still has a lot of room to grow and that that traditional four-year halving cycles may no longer be the best way to understand Bitcoin's price action.

著名經濟學家和交易員 Alex Krüger 分享了他對比特幣未來價格軌蹟的樂觀展望。克魯格在 Unchained 播客上表示，比特幣仍有很大的成長空間，傳統的四年減半週期可能不再是理解比特幣價格走勢的最佳方式。

According to Krüger, Bitcoin could be entering a "supercycle," a long-term market cycle that is not bound by the same predictable peaks and troughs as previous cycles. He believes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has shifted the way the market behaves, making Bitcoin less dependent on the halving cycles that have historically driven its price growth.

克魯格認為，比特幣可能正在進入一個“超級週期”，這是一個長期的市場週期，不受與之前週期相同的可預測的高峰和低谷的約束。他認為，2024 年 1 月現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准改變了市場行為方式，使比特幣減少了對歷史上推動其價格成長的減半週期的依賴。

Krüger highlights that the institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs has changed the market dynamics, allowing traditional institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This, in turn, increases overall demand for the cryptocurrency and creates a closer correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets like equities.

Krüger 強調，比特幣透過 ETF 的製度化改變了市場動態，使傳統機構投資者能夠獲得比特幣的投資。這反過來又增加了對加密貨幣的整體需求，並在比特幣和股票等傳統資產之間建立了更緊密的相關性。

In this scenario, Bitcoin's price could still experience steady growth over time, but it might not follow the usual halving-driven price patterns. The supercycle model suggests that Bitcoin could face smaller, shorter corrections rather than the long, deep bear markets often seen in the past. This shift would allow for more sustainable price movements, with gradual price appreciation and relatively brief periods of consolidation.

在這種情況下，比特幣的價格仍可能隨著時間的推移而穩步增長，但可能不會遵循通常的減半驅動的價格模式。超級週期模型表明，比特幣可能面臨更小、更短的調整，而不是過去經常出現的長期、深度的熊市。這種轉變將使價格走勢更永續，價格逐步升值，盤整期相對較短。

Krüger concludes that a supercycle does not imply that Bitcoin's price will only go up, but rather that any corrections in its price will be shorter and less severe, especially as long as broader markets and the global economy perform well. With more institutional interest and ETFs pushing the market forward, Krüger predicts that the next few years will see smaller price pullbacks, followed by continued price increases, in cycles that are less volatile compared to traditional halving-driven patterns.

克魯格的結論是，超級週期並不意味著比特幣的價格只會上漲，而是意味著其價格的任何調整都會更短且不那麼嚴重，特別是只要更廣泛的市場和全球經濟表現良好。克魯格預測，隨著越來越多的機構興趣和ETF 推動市場向前發展，未來幾年價格將出現較小的回調，隨後價格將持續上漲，與傳統的減半驅動模式相比，其週期波動性較小。

Bitcoin's current trading price of $93,134 reflects a minor dip of about 10% from its high of $102,000 in 2025. Despite the minor correction, Krüger remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future growth potential. He believes that the financial system's growing adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class will continue to propel the cryptocurrency to new highs.

比特幣目前的交易價格為 93,134 美元，較 2025 年 102,000 美元的高點小幅下跌約 10%。他認為，金融體系越來越多地採用比特幣作為一種資產類別，將繼續推動加密貨幣再創新高。