比特幣，黃金和美元：在動盪時期將您的錢停放在哪裡

在動蕩的經濟時期，這個問題總是回來：您應該在哪裡停放錢以確保它的安全？

Turbulent economic times often bring about a pressing question: where should you park your money to keep it safe?

動蕩的經濟時期經常提出一個緊迫的問題：您應該在哪裡停放錢以確保它的安全？

From the glittering allure of gold to the ever-resilient U.S. dollar, and even the controversial yet increasingly considered Bitcoin, investors are once again hunting for safe-haven assets. Let’s take a closer look at the current landscape and what some seasoned experts have to say.

從黃金的閃閃發光到富有彈性的美元，甚至是有爭議但越來越被考慮的比特幣，投資者都在尋找避風港資產。讓我們仔細研究當前的景觀以及一些經驗豐富的專家所說的話。

Gold: The Traditional Safe Harbor

黃金：傳統的安全港

For centuries, gold has been the go-to refuge in times of financial storms. And it seems that, once again, it’s fulfilling its historical role. According to algorithmic trader Gilles Santacreu, gold has “played its role as a safe-haven asset perfectly” during recent market upheavals. Some investors have even taken profits from their gold holdings to cushion the blow from plummeting stock prices.

幾個世紀以來，黃金一直是金融風暴時期的避難所。而且看來它再次履行其歷史角色。根據算法交易者吉爾斯·桑塔克雷（Gilles Santacreu）的說法，黃金在最近的市場動盪中“完美地發揮了其作為避險資產的作用”。一些投資者甚至從黃金持有量中獲利，以減輕股價下跌的打擊。

If you’ve ever chatted with a long-time investor, chances are they’ve told you about a time when gold kept their portfolio afloat during a rough patch. It’s almost a rite of passage in the world of finance.

如果您曾經與長期投資者聊天，那麼他們很可能會告訴您，大約有一個在粗糙的地方將其投資組合保持不變的時間。在金融界，這幾乎是通過的儀式。

The Dollar: A Recession Reflex?

美元：經濟衰退反射？

While gold shines, the U.S. dollar is quietly solidifying its dominance. Félix Baron, founder of the Independent Investors Club, suggests that it might be a smart move to “buy a little dollar” right now. His reasoning? If a recession hits, governments around the world will scramble to repay debts — most of which are denominated in dollars.

雖然黃金閃耀，但美元悄悄地鞏固了其統治地位。獨立投資者俱樂部的創始人費利克斯·巴倫（FélixBaron）認為，現在可能是“買一點美元”的明智之舉。他的理由？如果經濟衰退襲來，世界各地的政府將爭先恐後地償還債務，其中大多數以美元計價。

“As long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, it will continue to strengthen,” he points out. In a personal anecdote, a mentor once told me that in any global crisis, there’s always one thing people trust: the greenback.

他指出：“只要美元仍然是世界儲備貨幣，它將繼續加強。”在個人軼事中，一位導師曾經告訴我，在任何全球危機中，總會有一件事人信任：綠色。

Bitcoin: A New Kind of Safe Haven?

比特幣：一種新型的避風港？

No discussion on safe-haven assets would be complete without considering Bitcoin. Is it truly a safe-haven asset? Well, it depends on who you ask. Hardcore Bitcoin enthusiasts — often dubbed “Bitcoin maximalists” — argue that one Bitcoin is always worth one Bitcoin, market price notwithstanding.

如果不考慮比特幣，就沒有關於安全資產的討論將是完整的。它確實是避風港的資產嗎？好吧，這取決於您問誰。鐵桿比特幣愛好者（通常被稱為“比特幣最大化主義者”）認為，儘管有一個比特幣，但儘管如此，儘管有一個比特幣。

However, a more nuanced reality emerges. Over the weekend, Bitcoin slipped below $75,000, mirroring a dip in major stock indexes like the Nasdaq. But it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s drop was less severe compared to other cryptocurrencies, some of which saw price plunges of 20% in just a few hours.

但是，出現了更細微的現實。在周末，比特幣跌至75,000美元以下，反映了納斯達克等主要股票指數的下跌。但是，值得注意的是，與其他加密貨幣相比，比特幣的下降不那麼嚴重，其中一些比特幣在短短幾個小時內的價格下降了20％。

Jean Guillou, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Vancelian, weighs in, suggesting that Bitcoin is "still a good asset in the crypto space." In the conversation, he compares Bitcoin to Ethereum, highlighting that the latter has been steadily losing ground against Bitcoin since 2022 — making Bitcoin a smarter bet for those with a medium to long-term investing horizon.

Vancelian的聯合創始人兼首席投資官Jean Guillou表示贊同，這表明比特幣“仍然是加密貨幣領域的好資產”。在談話中，他將比特幣與以太坊進行了比較，強調說，自2022年以來，後者一直在對比特幣穩步失去立場，這使得比特幣成為那些具有中度至長期投資範圍的人的更加明智的選擇。

Bitcoin as a Reserve of Value?

比特幣作為價值儲備？

There’s a subtle distinction between a safe-haven asset and a reserve of value. And Bitcoin seems to straddle both worlds. Félix Baron further explains that Bitcoin’s limited supply — capped at 21 million units — gives it characteristics similar to traditional stores of value.

安全資產和價值儲備之間存在微妙的區別。比特幣似乎跨越了兩個世界。費利克斯·巴倫（FélixBaron）進一步解釋說，比特幣的有限供應（限制為2100萬台單位）具有類似於傳統價值存儲的特徵。

As more bitcoins are mined, scarcity will likely push its value upward. “If you didn’t jump on Bitcoin when it was at $78,000, maybe now’s your chance,” he hints.

隨著越來越多的比特幣開採，稀缺可能會向上推動其價值。他暗示：“如果您在78,000美元的價格時沒有跳上比特幣，那麼現在也許是您的機會。”

For many, this reminds me of the early days of digital photography. Back then, skeptics scoffed at the idea that digital files could ever replace traditional film. But today, it’s nearly unthinkable. Similarly, Bitcoin’s journey from a fringe concept to an increasingly accepted form of wealth preservation continues.

對於許多人來說，這讓我想起了數碼攝影的早期。那時，懷疑論者嘲笑了數字文件可以取代傳統電影的想法。但是今天，這幾乎是不可想像的。同樣，比特幣從邊緣概念到越來越多的財富保存形式的旅程仍在繼續。

A Word of Caution

謹慎

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding these assets, it’s crucial to keep in mind one golden rule of investing: only invest what you can afford to lose.

儘管這些資產充滿了熱情，但要記住一個黃金的投資法則至關重要：只投資您有能力損失的東西。

Whether it’s in traditional markets or the fast-paced world of crypto, the potential rewards are always accompanied by risks. And as history has shown, even the safest bets can sometimes surprise us. So, while these investment opportunities hold promise, they should be approached with care, good research, and a hefty dose of humility.

無論是在傳統市場還是加密貨幣的快節奏世界中，潛在的獎勵總是伴隨著風險。正如歷史所表明的那樣，即使最安全的賭注有時也會使我們感到驚訝。因此，儘管這些投資機會有希望，但應謹慎，良好的研究和謙卑。