比特幣是新黃金。但是它的行為並不像黃金

多年來，密碼寄生的人將比特幣稱為“新黃金”。論點通常會這樣：“像黃金，比特幣不能成為

Crypto enthusiasts have long dubbed Bitcoin "the new gold." The argument usually goes something like this: "Like gold, Bitcoin can't be printed (mining is complex and supply limited)," or "Every four years, the mining reward halves, mimicking the scarcity of gold."

加密愛好者長期以來將比特幣稱為“新黃金”。該論點通常是這樣的：“像黃金，比特幣無法打印（採礦是複雜的，供應有限的）”或“每四年，採礦獎勵的一半，模仿了黃金的稀缺性”。

However, despite this comparison, Bitcoin has not behaved exactly like gold. In turbulent times, Bitcoin has tended to fall along with other risk assets, while gold has typically strengthened.

但是，儘管進行了比較，但比特幣的表現並不完全像黃金。在動蕩的時期，比特幣傾向於與其他風險資產一起跌落，而黃金通常會增強。

For example, last year, during the Iranian attack on Israel, Bitcoin fell sharply while gold prices rose. This pattern didn't change much afterwards: when the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones fell, Bitcoin plunged along with them.

例如，去年，在伊朗對以色列的襲擊中，比特幣急劇下降，而黃金價格上漲。此後，這種模式並沒有太大變化：當標準普爾500指數，納斯達克和道瓊斯掉落時，比特幣隨身攜帶時。

It almost seemed like the case was closed: the myth of Bitcoin as a "digital safe haven" was debunked, and the narrative faded. But just because something didn't work in the past doesn't mean it can't work in the future. Paradigms shift, and the current conditions are perfect for that to happen.

案件似乎已經結束了：比特幣的神話是“數字避風港”被揭穿，敘述消失了。但是，僅僅因為過去不起作用並不意味著它將將來無法正常工作。範式轉移，當前條件非常適合發生這種情況。

Along with the nervousness in the stock market, the U.S. dollar index fell. Many interpret this as a loss of confidence in the dollar.

隨著股票市場的緊張感，美元指數下降了。許多人將其解釋為對美元的信心喪失。

With the price of gold already approaching record highs — close to $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday — the debate has resurfaced: maybe it's time to run to Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin price won't "crash... or will it?

隨著黃金的價格已經接近創紀錄的高點 - 週二每盎司近3,500美元 - 辯論已經浮出水面：也許是時候跑到比特幣了。畢竟，比特幣價格不會“崩潰……還是會的？

As long as strong demand persists, it shouldn't, but it should always be remembered that Bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible like stocks. If the influx of new capital dries up, the pyramid risks collapsing. Unlike traditional assets, there is no underlying cash flow, dividend, or utility value anchoring the price.

只要強勁的需求持續下去，就不應該，但是應該始終記住比特幣沒有像股票那樣有形的任何東西的支持。如果新資本的湧入枯竭，金字塔可能會崩潰。與傳統資產不同，沒有基本的現金流，股息或公用事業價值錨定價格。

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, which goes against the usual trend in times of uncertainty. This may indicate a breakdown of the traditional paradigm: Treasuries no longer look like a safe haven. In that environment, Bitcoin could have room to attract new minds.

展望未來，美國財政收益率正在上升，這違背了不確定性時期的通常趨勢。這可能表明傳統範式的崩潰：國庫看起來不再像避風港。在那種環境中，比特幣可能有吸引新思維的空間。

On the other hand, if Trump doubles down on his protectionist rhetoric and continues to attack Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to push for rate cuts, Bitcoin could get another boost. Against this backdrop, some (including Arthur Hayes) predict considerable growth if that happens, with prices above $95,000.

另一方面，如果特朗普對他的貿易保護主義言論加倍，並繼續攻擊美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）促進降低稅率，那麼比特幣可能會再次提高。在此背景下，有些（包括亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes））可以預測，如果發生這種情況，價格超過95,000美元。

On the other hand, it's also worth considering that if Trump backs down on his tariff standoff with China, some of the money currently in crypto could flow back into the stock market — the same with the commodities.

另一方面，還值得考慮的是，如果特朗普撤回與中國的關稅對峙，那麼當前在加密貨幣的一些錢可能會回到股市，而商品也是如此。