比特幣 ETF：減半回檔的潛在緩衝？

Will Bitcoin ETFs Soften the Halving Retracement?

比特幣ETF會緩和減半回檔嗎？

Bitcoin's quadrennial halving event, which reduces the supply of new BTC by half, has historically triggered a price pullback. As the next halving looms in April, market observers ponder whether the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs will mitigate this expected decline.

比特幣四年一度的減半事件導致新比特幣的供應量減少一半，歷史上曾引發價格回檔。隨著 4 月下一次減半的臨近，市場觀察家思考現貨比特幣 ETF 的存在是否會緩解這種預期的下降。

The Halving's Cyclical Stages

減半的周期性階段

Crypto analysis firm Rekt Capital outlines five stages of the halving cycle:

加密貨幣分析公司 Rekt Capital 概述了減半週期的五個階段：

1. Pre-halving downside phase: Anticipating the event, investors drive prices lower.
2. Pre-halving rally: Short-term traders capitalize on the halving hype, pushing prices higher.
3. Pre-halving retracement: Investors anticipate sell pressure and exit positions, leading to price declines.
4. Reaccumulation: Hype subsides, and many investors exit, causing further price dips.
5. Parabolic uptrend: Bitcoin recovers from previous stages and reaches new highs.

Bitcoin ETFs: A Halving Hedge?

減半前下行階段：投資者預期事件，推動價格走低。減半前反彈：短線交易者利用減半炒作，推高價格。減半前回撤：投資者預期拋售壓力並退出頭寸，導致價格上漲重新累積：炒作消退，許多投資者退出，導致價格進一步下跌。拋物線上升趨勢：比特幣從先前的階段恢復並達到新高。比特幣ETF：減半對沖？

In early January, the SEC approved several Bitcoin ETFs for listing on traditional exchanges. This move opened the door for institutional investors to embrace Bitcoin, potentially boosting demand.

一月初，美國證券交易委員會批准了幾隻比特幣 ETF 在傳統交易所上市。此舉為機構投資者接受比特幣打開了大門，可能會提振需求。

Data reveals a surge in demand for Bitcoin ETFs. As of March 5, global Bitcoin ETFs surpassed 1 million BTC in assets under management, reaching a record $10 billion in trading volume. This influx suggests a potential shift in investment preferences toward Bitcoin ETFs.

數據顯示，比特幣 ETF 的需求激增。截至 3 月 5 日，全球比特幣 ETF 管理資產超過 100 萬枚 BTC，交易量達到創紀錄的 100 億美元。這種湧入表明投資偏好可能轉向比特幣 ETF。

Connecting the Dots

連接點

Bitcoin ETFs could influence the halving's third and fourth stages, which typically witness price declines. During these stages, investors who shorted Bitcoin to ride the halving hype exit their positions, and miners sell their holdings to maintain liquidity.

比特幣 ETF 可能會影響減半的第三和第四階段，這通常會導致價格下跌。在這些階段，利用減半炒作做空比特幣的投資者會退出頭寸，礦商則出售其持有的比特幣以維持流動性。

However, the inflows through Bitcoin ETFs could potentially offset this selling pressure. By creating a base of institutional demand, ETFs may mitigate the price drops and provide a foundation for a stronger parabolic uptrend in the fifth stage.

然而，透過比特幣 ETF 的資金流入可能會抵消這種拋售壓力。透過創造機構需求基礎，ETF 可以緩解價格下跌，並為第五階段更強勁的拋物線上升趨勢奠定基礎。

Speculation and Uncertainty

猜測和不確定性

While many experts believe Bitcoin ETFs will benefit the halving, others remain cautious. Nicholas Sciberras of Collective Shift argues that while ETFs could hedge against selling pressure, they could also contribute to it if demand wanes.

儘管許多專家認為比特幣 ETF 將受益於減半，但其他專家仍持謹慎態度。 Collective Shift 的 Nicholas Sciberras 認為，雖然 ETF 可以對沖拋售壓力，但如果需求減弱，它們也可能會有所貢獻。

JPMorgan predicts a potential drop to $42,000 after the halving, citing historical halving patterns. Grayscale Investments' outflows from its Bitcoin Trust ETF raise concerns about investors' waning interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

摩根大通引述歷史減半模式預測減半後價格可能跌至 42,000 美元。 Grayscale Investments 的比特幣信託 ETF 資金流出引發了投資者對比特幣 ETF 興趣減弱的擔憂。

The Verdict

判決

The impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the halving retracement remains uncertain. While the inflows from ETFs could provide a cushion against price declines, it's possible that they could amplify the selling pressure if demand falters. Only time will tell to what extent Bitcoin ETFs will affect the halving's trajectory.

比特幣ETF對減半回檔的影響仍不確定。雖然ETF的資金流入可以為價格下跌提供緩衝，但如果需求疲軟，它們可能會放大拋售壓力。只有時間才能證明比特幣 ETF 會在多大程度上影響減半的軌跡。