比特幣修正：看漲的偽裝？

在價格創下歷史新高後的回調中，包括礦工、鯨魚和大型投資者在內的比特幣（BTC）市場參與者一直在拋售比特幣以實現利潤。然而，CryptoQuant 分析師認為，牛市週期仍在持續，因為價格估值指標仍低於歷史市場最高點。

Bitcoin Price Correction: A Bullish Signal in Disguise

比特幣價格調整：變相的看漲訊號

Following its ascent to an all-time high of $73,700, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of price correction. Market participants, including miners, whales, and large investors, have been selling their BTC to capitalize on profits.

在升至 73,700 美元的歷史高點後，比特幣 (BTC) 進入了價格調整期。包括礦工、鯨魚和大投資者在內的市場參與者一直在出售他們的比特幣以獲取利潤。

However, analysts at CryptoQuant believe that the Bitcoin bull cycle is far from over, as price valuation metrics remain significantly below levels seen in past market tops.

然而，CryptoQuant 的分析師認為，比特幣牛市週期遠未結束，因為價格估值指標仍遠低於過去市場頂部的水平。

Bitcoin in Correction Mode

比特幣處於修正模式

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator signaled an overheated-bull phase last week as BTC plummeted from $73,700 to $60,700. This decline was triggered by traders selling their holdings to realize substantial profit margins.

牛熊市場週期指標上週預示著牛市過熱階段，比特幣從 73,700 美元暴跌至 60,700 美元。此次下跌是由於交易員出售所持股份以實現巨額利潤而引發的。

CryptoQuant data reveals that unrealized profit margins surged to 69%, their highest level since March 2021, when BTC traded around $60,000. Despite the recent sell-off, unrealized profit margins remain elevated at 47%.

CryptoQuant 數據顯示，未實現利潤率飆升至 69%，這是自 2021 年 3 月以來的最高水平，當時 BTC 交易價格約為 60,000 美元。儘管近期出現拋售，但未實現利潤率仍高達 47%。

"Short-term Bitcoin holders (including traders) sold Bitcoin at the highest profit margin since May 2019," analysts observed. "This indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders took profits after this last price spike that took Bitcoin to a fresh all-time high."

分析師觀察到，“短期比特幣持有者（包括交易者）以 2019 年 5 月以來的最高利潤率出售比特幣。” “這表明短期比特幣持有者在上次價格飆升後獲利了結，將比特幣推向了新的歷史新高。”

Large BTC holders also sold their assets as prices soared above $70,000. Collectively, they moved 567,000 BTC when the digital asset reached its all-time high on March 12, representing 35% of total transfers on the Bitcoin network.

隨著價格飆升至 70,000 美元以上，大量 BTC 持有者也出售了資產。當數位資產在 3 月 12 日達到歷史新高時，他們總共轉移了 567,000 枚比特幣，佔比特幣網路總轉移量的 35%。

CryptoQuant suggests that some of these large holders are Bitcoin miners. Miners experienced record-high daily revenues during Bitcoin's recent rally, and their BTC transfers to over-the-counter desks increased notably as the crypto asset crossed $70,000.

CryptoQuant 認為，其中一些大持有者是比特幣礦工。在比特幣最近的上漲期間，礦工們的每日收入創下歷史新高，隨著加密資產突破 7 萬美元，他們向場外交易櫃檯轉移的 BTC 顯著增加。

Bull Cycle Far From Over

牛市週期遠未結束

Despite the correction, demand for BTC in the United States has subsided, as evidenced by the negative Coinbase Premium shortly after BTC hit $73,000. Analysts speculate that if the correction persists, BTC could decline to the $58,000-$60,000 range, which represents the cost basis of large short-term holders.

儘管出現了調整，但美國對 BTC 的需求已經減弱，BTC 觸及 73,000 美元後不久 Coinbase 溢價為負就證明了這一點。分析師推測，如果調整持續下去，比特幣可能會跌至 58,000 美元至 60,000 美元的區間，這代表了大型短期持有者的成本基礎。

However, from a longer-term perspective, BTC has not yet reached the peak of this bull cycle, as indicated by low levels of new investment flows. Currently, approximately 48% of Bitcoin investments originate from short-term holders, while historically, bull cycles typically conclude with 84%-92% of investments coming from this cohort.

然而，從更長期的角度來看，BTC尚未達到本次多頭週期的頂峰，新增投資流量水準較低。目前，大約 48% 的比特幣投資來自短期持有者，而從歷史上看，牛市週期通常以 84%-92% 的投資來自該群體而結束。

"Furthermore, valuation metrics are not yet near levels consistent with past market tops," analysts added. "CryptoQuant P&L Index is still outside a market top zone (red area) and above the index 1-year moving average."

分析師補充說：“此外，估值指標尚未接近與過去市場最高點一致的水平。” “CryptoQuant 損益指數仍位於市場頂部區域（紅色區域）之外，且高於該指數的 1 年移動平均線。”

These observations suggest that while Bitcoin is undergoing a price correction, the underlying fundamentals remain bullish, indicating that the bull cycle may have further to run.

這些觀察結果表明，雖然比特幣正在經歷價格調整，但基本面仍然看漲，表明牛市週期可能會進一步運行。