比特幣在減半前盤整，引發看漲預測

4 月伊始，比特幣 (BTC) 在 72,000 美元大關下方盤整，加密社群熱切等待 19 天後即將到來的減半事件。儘管盤整已盛行，但周日短暫飆升至 71,500 美元上方時遇到了看跌阻力，週一價格跌破 69,000 美元。然而，反彈穩定了低迷，比特幣目前交易價格為 68,835 美元。

Bitcoin's Consolidation Precedes Halving Event, Sparking Bullish Forecasts

比特幣在減半事件前進行整合，引發看漲預測

As the month of April unfolds, Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency that has captivated the financial world, remains in a holding pattern, hovering below the pivotal $72,000 mark. However, beneath the surface of this consolidation, the crypto community is pulsating with anticipation for the upcoming halving event, a pivotal milestone that occurs every four years and is slated to transpire in a mere 19 days.

隨著 4 月的到來，比特幣（BTC）這種吸引金融界的加密貨幣仍處於持有狀態，徘徊在關鍵的 72,000 美元大關下方。然而，在這種整合的表面之下，加密貨幣社群正對即將到來的減半事件充滿期待，這是每四年發生一次的關鍵里程碑，預計將在短短 19 天內發生。

TradingView's data provides an illuminating glimpse into the recent price action of Bitcoin. On Sunday, bulls engaged in a valiant but ultimately unsuccessful attempt to breach the $71,500 resistance level, only to witness bears exert their dominance on Monday, forcefully pushing the price below $69,000 in the early hours. Nonetheless, bulls swiftly orchestrated a rebound, effectively stabilizing the downturn.

TradingView 的數據讓我們對比特幣近期的價格走勢有了啟發性的了解。週日，多頭勇敢地嘗試突破 71,500 美元的阻力位，但最終沒有成功，結果週一空頭發揮了主導作用，在凌晨將價格強行推低至 69,000 美元以下。儘管如此，多頭迅速策劃反彈，有效穩定了低迷狀態。

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin's value stands at $68,835, reflecting a modest 2.35% decrease over the past 24 hours. This price action suggests that the battle between bulls and bears remains fiercely contested, with neither side able to gain a decisive edge.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價值為 68,835 美元，在過去 24 小時內小幅下跌 2.35%。這種價格走勢表明多頭和空頭之間的戰鬥仍然很激烈，雙方都無法獲得決定性優勢。

Past Trends Hint at Potential Surge to $150,000

過去的趨勢暗示有可能飆升至 15 萬美元

Despite Bitcoin's current struggle to surpass its all-time high achieved last month, Mark Yusko, the esteemed CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, projects a significant surge to $150,000 post-halving, drawing inspiration from the cryptocurrency's historical trends.

儘管比特幣目前正在努力超越上個月創下的歷史新高，但摩根溪資本管理公司(Morgan Creek Capital Management) 受人尊敬的首席執行官馬克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko) 預計，減半後比特幣價格將大幅飆升至15 萬美元，從加密貨幣的歷史趨勢中汲取靈感。

In a recent interview with CNBC, Yusko expounded on the cyclical pattern of increased interest and investment that typically follows halving events, often resulting in prices reaching twice their intrinsic value. He drew parallels to the dynamics of the last cycle, where the fair value was pegged at $30,000, with the peak reaching nearly $68,000 to $69,000. Yusko attributes the potential for reaching $150,000 this cycle to reduced leverage in the market.

在最近接受 CNBC 採訪時，尤斯科闡述了通常在減半事件發生後興趣和投資增加的週期性模式，通常會導致價格達到其內在價值的兩倍。他與上一個週期的動態進行了比較，當時公允價值固定在 30,000 美元，峰值達到近 68,000 美元至 69,000 美元。 Yusko 將本週期達到 150,000 美元的潛力歸因於市場槓桿率的降低。

Yusko further elaborated on his optimistic forecast, highlighting the halving event's impact on Bitcoin's supply dynamics. The event will effectively slash the daily production of Bitcoin by half, from 900 to 450 coins, against a backdrop of already high demand, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This imbalance between supply and demand, according to Yusko, creates a compelling environment for a price increase, underscoring the intrinsic value dynamics of Bitcoin post-halving.

Yusko 進一步闡述了他的樂觀預測，強調了減半事件對比特幣供應動態的影響。在需求本已很高的背景下，尤其是來自現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求，該活動將有效地將比特幣的日產量削減一半，從 900 枚減至 450 枚。尤斯科表示，這種供需之間的不平衡為價格上漲創造了一個引人注目的環境，凸顯了比特幣減半後的內在價值動態。

Yusko Anticipates Bitcoin's Ascent Months After Halving

Yusko 預計比特幣減半後幾個月將上漲

Mark Yusko advises investors to embrace a diversified portfolio that incorporates Bitcoin, advocating for an allocation of 1% to 3%. He emphasizes Bitcoin's superiority, comparing it to an enhanced version of gold due to its dominant position and intrinsic value.

Mark Yusko 建議投資人採用包含比特幣的多元化投資組合，主張​​配置 1% 至 3%。他強調了比特幣的優越性，將其與黃金的增強版進行比較，因為它的主導地位和內在價值。

Yusko's optimism about Bitcoin's future extends beyond the immediate post-halving period. He projects a potential tenfold increase in value within the next decade. He notes that Bitcoin's price typically experiences a surge a few months following a halving event. Based on historical patterns, Yusko predicts a significant price rally post-halving, with the market turning increasingly bullish towards the year's end, peaking around the holiday season before entering the next bear phase.

尤斯科對比特幣未來的樂觀態度超越了減半後的時期。他預計未來十年內其價值可能會增加十倍。他指出，比特幣的價格通常會在減半事件後幾個月出現飆升。根據歷史模式，Yusko 預測減半後價格將大幅上漲，市場在年底前變得越來越看漲，在假期期間達到頂峰，然後進入下一個熊市階段。

Morgan Creek Capital, under Yusko's astute leadership, has strategically positioned itself for the anticipated bull market, allocating 80% of its investments to private equity and the remaining 20% to highly liquid cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX).

Morgan Creek Capital 在Yusko 的精明領導下，針對預期的牛市進行了戰略定位，將80% 的投資分配給私募股權，其餘20% 分配給高流動性的加密貨幣，包括以太坊(ETH)、Solana ( SOL) 和雪崩（AVAX）。

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin replicates its previous cycles, a new peak is expected in 2025. However, analysts at 21Shares speculate that the upcoming cycle might deviate from past trends, potentially triggering an earlier rally. This speculation is grounded in the recent introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., a development that could introduce new dynamics into the traditional halving cycle.

展望未來，如果比特幣複製之前的周期，預計將在 2025 年達到新的峰值。然而，21Shares 的分析師推測，即將到來的周期可能會偏離過去的趨勢，可能引發更早的反彈。這種猜測是基於美國最近推出的現貨比特幣 ETF，這項發展可能會為傳統的減半週期帶來新的動力。

As the clock ticks down to the halving event, the crypto community waits with bated breath, eagerly anticipating the potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. Will Bitcoin soar to uncharted heights, fulfilling Mark Yusko's bullish forecast? Or will the market defy historical patterns, charting a new course for the world's most popular cryptocurrency? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the halving event is poised to be a watershed moment in Bitcoin's evolution, shaping its future and captivating the attention of investors worldwide.

隨著減半事件的臨近，加密社群屏息以待，熱切地期待著減半對比特幣價格軌蹟的潛在影響。比特幣會飆升至未知高度，實現 Mark Yusko 的看漲預測嗎？或者市場會違背歷史模式，為世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣制定新的路線嗎？只有時間才能證明一切，但有一件事是確定的：減半事件將成為比特幣發展的分水嶺，塑造其未來並吸引全球投資者的注意。