比特币在减半前盘整，引发看涨预测

4 月伊始，比特币 (BTC) 在 72,000 美元大关下方盘整，加密社区热切等待 19 天后即将到来的减半事件。尽管盘整已盛行，但周日短暂飙升至 71,500 美元上方时遇到了看跌阻力，周一价格跌破 69,000 美元。然而，反弹稳定了低迷，比特币目前交易价格为 68,835 美元。

Bitcoin's Consolidation Precedes Halving Event, Sparking Bullish Forecasts

比特币在减半事件之前进行整合，引发看涨预测

As the month of April unfolds, Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency that has captivated the financial world, remains in a holding pattern, hovering below the pivotal $72,000 mark. However, beneath the surface of this consolidation, the crypto community is pulsating with anticipation for the upcoming halving event, a pivotal milestone that occurs every four years and is slated to transpire in a mere 19 days.

随着 4 月份的到来，比特币（BTC）这种吸引金融界的加密货币仍处于持有状态，徘徊在关键的 72,000 美元大关下方。然而，在这种整合的表面之下，加密货币社区正对即将到来的减半事件充满期待，这是每四年发生一次的关键里程碑，预计将在短短 19 天内发生。

TradingView's data provides an illuminating glimpse into the recent price action of Bitcoin. On Sunday, bulls engaged in a valiant but ultimately unsuccessful attempt to breach the $71,500 resistance level, only to witness bears exert their dominance on Monday, forcefully pushing the price below $69,000 in the early hours. Nonetheless, bulls swiftly orchestrated a rebound, effectively stabilizing the downturn.

TradingView 的数据让我们对比特币近期的价格走势有了启发性的了解。周日，多头勇敢地尝试突破 71,500 美元的阻力位，但最终没有成功，结果周一空头发挥了主导作用，在凌晨将价格强行推低至 69,000 美元以下。尽管如此，多头迅速策划反弹，有效稳定了低迷状态。

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin's value stands at $68,835, reflecting a modest 2.35% decrease over the past 24 hours. This price action suggests that the battle between bulls and bears remains fiercely contested, with neither side able to gain a decisive edge.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价值为 68,835 美元，在过去 24 小时内小幅下跌 2.35%。这种价格走势表明多头和空头之间的战斗仍然激烈，双方都无法获得决定性优势。

Past Trends Hint at Potential Surge to $150,000

过去的趋势暗示有可能飙升至 150,000 美元

Despite Bitcoin's current struggle to surpass its all-time high achieved last month, Mark Yusko, the esteemed CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, projects a significant surge to $150,000 post-halving, drawing inspiration from the cryptocurrency's historical trends.

尽管比特币目前正在努力超越上个月创下的历史新高，但摩根溪资本管理公司 (Morgan Creek Capital Management) 受人尊敬的首席执行官马克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 预计，减半后比特币价格将大幅飙升至 15 万美元，从加密货币的历史趋势中汲取灵感。

In a recent interview with CNBC, Yusko expounded on the cyclical pattern of increased interest and investment that typically follows halving events, often resulting in prices reaching twice their intrinsic value. He drew parallels to the dynamics of the last cycle, where the fair value was pegged at $30,000, with the peak reaching nearly $68,000 to $69,000. Yusko attributes the potential for reaching $150,000 this cycle to reduced leverage in the market.

在最近接受 CNBC 采访时，尤斯科阐述了通常在减半事件发生后兴趣和投资增加的周期性模式，通常会导致价格达到其内在价值的两倍。他与上一个周期的动态进行了比较，当时公允价值固定在 30,000 美元，峰值达到近 68,000 美元至 69,000 美元。 Yusko 将本周期达到 150,000 美元的潜力归因于市场杠杆率的降低。

Yusko further elaborated on his optimistic forecast, highlighting the halving event's impact on Bitcoin's supply dynamics. The event will effectively slash the daily production of Bitcoin by half, from 900 to 450 coins, against a backdrop of already high demand, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This imbalance between supply and demand, according to Yusko, creates a compelling environment for a price increase, underscoring the intrinsic value dynamics of Bitcoin post-halving.

Yusko 进一步阐述了他的乐观预测，强调了减半事件对比特币供应动态的影响。在需求本已很高的背景下，尤其是来自现货比特币 ETF 的需求，该活动将有效地将比特币的日产量削减一半，从 900 枚减至 450 枚。尤斯科表示，这种供需之间的不平衡为价格上涨创造了一个引人注目的环境，凸显了比特币减半后的内在价值动态。

Yusko Anticipates Bitcoin's Ascent Months After Halving

Yusko 预计比特币减半后几个月将上涨

Mark Yusko advises investors to embrace a diversified portfolio that incorporates Bitcoin, advocating for an allocation of 1% to 3%. He emphasizes Bitcoin's superiority, comparing it to an enhanced version of gold due to its dominant position and intrinsic value.

Mark Yusko 建议投资者采用包含比特币的多元化投资组合，主张配置 1% 至 3%。他强调了比特币的优越性，将其与黄金的增强版进行比较，因为它的主导地位和内在价值。

Yusko's optimism about Bitcoin's future extends beyond the immediate post-halving period. He projects a potential tenfold increase in value within the next decade. He notes that Bitcoin's price typically experiences a surge a few months following a halving event. Based on historical patterns, Yusko predicts a significant price rally post-halving, with the market turning increasingly bullish towards the year's end, peaking around the holiday season before entering the next bear phase.

尤斯科对比特币未来的乐观态度超出了减半后的时期。他预计未来十年内其价值可能会增加十倍。他指出，比特币的价格通常会在减半事件后几个月出现飙升。根据历史模式，Yusko 预测减半后价格将大幅上涨，市场在年底前变得越来越看涨，在假期期间达到顶峰，然后进入下一个熊市阶段。

Morgan Creek Capital, under Yusko's astute leadership, has strategically positioned itself for the anticipated bull market, allocating 80% of its investments to private equity and the remaining 20% to highly liquid cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX).

Morgan Creek Capital 在 Yusko 的精明领导下，针对预期的牛市进行了战略定位，将 80% 的投资分配给私募股权，其余 20% 分配给高流动性的加密货币，包括以太坊 (ETH)、Solana (SOL) 和雪崩（AVAX）。

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin replicates its previous cycles, a new peak is expected in 2025. However, analysts at 21Shares speculate that the upcoming cycle might deviate from past trends, potentially triggering an earlier rally. This speculation is grounded in the recent introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., a development that could introduce new dynamics into the traditional halving cycle.

展望未来，如果比特币复制之前的周期，预计将在 2025 年达到新的峰值。然而，21Shares 的分析师推测，即将到来的周期可能会偏离过去的趋势，可能引发更早的反弹。这种猜测是基于美国最近推出的现货比特币 ETF，这一发展可能会给传统的减半周期带来新的动力。

As the clock ticks down to the halving event, the crypto community waits with bated breath, eagerly anticipating the potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. Will Bitcoin soar to uncharted heights, fulfilling Mark Yusko's bullish forecast? Or will the market defy historical patterns, charting a new course for the world's most popular cryptocurrency? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the halving event is poised to be a watershed moment in Bitcoin's evolution, shaping its future and captivating the attention of investors worldwide.

随着减半事件的临近，加密社区屏息以待，热切地期待着减半对比特币价格轨迹的潜在影响。比特币会飙升至未知高度，实现 Mark Yusko 的看涨预测吗？或者市场会违背历史模式，为世界上最受欢迎的加密货币制定新的路线吗？只有时间才能证明一切，但有一件事是确定的：减半事件将成为比特币发展的分水岭，塑造其未来并吸引全球投资者的关注。