比特幣多頭打破歷史規範，扭轉重大價格調整

鏈上分析師 Checkmate 的一項分析顯示，儘管比特幣 (BTC) 賣家在當前牛市週期中出現了大幅獲利回吐，但仍無法發起超過 20% 的大幅回調。這與先前的多頭市場形成鮮明對比，先前的牛市回檔幅度超過 50%。

Bitcoin Bulls Defy Historical Patterns, Staving Off Major Correction

比特幣牛市違背歷史模式，避免了重大調整

In a groundbreaking analysis that challenges conventional wisdom, market experts have determined that Bitcoin (BTC) sellers have been unable to ignite a substantial correction, a deviation from historical bull market trends.

在一項挑戰傳統觀點的突破性分析中，市場專家確定比特幣（BTC）賣家無法引發大幅回調，這與歷史多頭趨勢背道而馳。

Data presented by Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, reveals that BTC price drawdowns have barely surpassed 20% during this cycle. This stands in stark contrast to previous bull markets, which witnessed pullbacks exceeding 50%.

Glassnode 的匿名首席鏈上分析師 Checkmate 提供的數據顯示，在此週期內 BTC 價格下跌幅度僅略超過 20%。這與先前回調超過50%的多頭市場形成鮮明對比。

"The market is absorbing substantial sell-side days worth hundreds of millions of dollars, yet the bears have still not managed to engineer a 20% pullback," Checkmate remarked, highlighting his astonishment at the unprecedented resilience of Bitcoin bulls.

Checkmate 表示：「市場正在吸收大量價值數億美元的賣方交易日，但空頭仍未能實現 20% 的回調。」他強調了他對比特幣多頭前所未有的彈性的驚訝。

This departure from historical norms has raised eyebrows among analysts. Despite mass profit-taking and reactionary selling at record highs, the market has remained remarkably buoyant. The lone exception was a brief 20% dip in mid-September 2023, while subsequent drawdowns have remained below 16%.

這種背離歷史常態的做法引起了分析師的注意。儘管大量獲利了結和反動拋售創下歷史新高，但市場仍然非常活躍。唯一的例外是 2023 年 9 月中旬短暫下跌 20%，而隨後的下跌幅度仍低於 16%。

"This is still my favorite Bitcoin chart of this cycle," Checkmate proclaimed.

「這仍然是本週期我最喜歡的比特幣圖表，」Checkmate 宣稱。

The absence of a significant correction defies statistical probabilities, as Checkmate acknowledged. "The insight is less about whether we will get one, but rather about the remarkable fact that we haven't already," he stated.

正如 Checkmate 承認的那樣，沒有出現重大修正違背了統計機率。 「我們的見解不是關於我們是否會得到一個，而是關於我們還沒有得到一個的顯著事實，」他說。

The strength of Bitcoin bulls stems from a fundamental shift in market dynamics in 2024. Notably, the advent of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a significant source of buy-side support. Since their launch in January, these ETFs have accumulated over 500,000 BTC.

比特幣多頭的力量源自於 2024 年市場動態的根本性轉變。值得注意的是，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的出現引入了買方支持的重要來源。自 1 月推出以來，這些 ETF 已累積超過 50 萬BTC。

This institutional demand, coupled with phenomena such as multi-year lows in exchanges' BTC balances, has injected a surge of bullish sentiment into the market, setting the stage for a resumption of price discovery.

這種機構需求，加上交易所比特幣餘額多年來處於低位等現象，為市場注入了看漲情緒，為價格發現的恢復奠定了基礎。

However, analysts caution against excessive optimism. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasized that ETF products will inevitably experience periods of net withdrawals, which is a normal aspect of investor behavior.

然而，分析師警告不要過度樂觀。 Bloomberg Intelligence 資深 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 強調，ETF 產品不可避免地會經歷淨撤回的時期，這是投資者行為的正常現象。

"The inflows have been that epic, and without the ETFs, BTC is probably around $30k, so look at the big picture," Balchunas advised in a tweet.

Balchunas 在推文中建議道：“資金流入規模如此之大，如果沒有 ETF，BTC 的價格可能約為 3 萬美元，所以請著眼於大局。”

The exceptional resilience of Bitcoin in this cycle, defying historical patterns and statistical likelihood, underscores the transformative impact of institutional adoption and the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset.

比特幣在這一週期中的非凡彈性，違背了歷史模式和統計可能性，突顯了機構採用的變革性影響以及人們日益認識到比特幣作為合法投資資產。