比特币多头打破历史规范，扭转重大价格调整

链上分析师 Checkmate 的一项分析显示，尽管比特币 (BTC) 卖家在当前牛市周期中出现了大幅获利回吐，但仍无法发起超过 20% 的大幅回调。这与之前的牛市形成鲜明对比，之前的牛市回调幅度超过 50%。

Bitcoin Bulls Defy Historical Patterns, Staving Off Major Correction

比特币牛市违背历史模式，避免了重大调整

In a groundbreaking analysis that challenges conventional wisdom, market experts have determined that Bitcoin (BTC) sellers have been unable to ignite a substantial correction, a deviation from historical bull market trends.

在一项挑战传统观点的突破性分析中，市场专家确定比特币（BTC）卖家无法引发大幅回调，这与历史牛市趋势背道而驰。

Data presented by Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, reveals that BTC price drawdowns have barely surpassed 20% during this cycle. This stands in stark contrast to previous bull markets, which witnessed pullbacks exceeding 50%.

Glassnode 的匿名首席链上分析师 Checkmate 提供的数据显示，在此周期内 BTC 价格下跌幅度仅略超过 20%。这与此前回调超过50%的牛市形成鲜明对比。

"The market is absorbing substantial sell-side days worth hundreds of millions of dollars, yet the bears have still not managed to engineer a 20% pullback," Checkmate remarked, highlighting his astonishment at the unprecedented resilience of Bitcoin bulls.

Checkmate 表示：“市场正在吸收价值数亿美元的大量卖方交易日，但空头仍未能实现 20% 的回调。”他强调了他对比特币多头前所未有的弹性的惊讶。

This departure from historical norms has raised eyebrows among analysts. Despite mass profit-taking and reactionary selling at record highs, the market has remained remarkably buoyant. The lone exception was a brief 20% dip in mid-September 2023, while subsequent drawdowns have remained below 16%.

这种背离历史常态的做法引起了分析师的关注。尽管大量获利了结和反动抛售创下历史新高，但市场仍然非常活跃。唯一的例外是 2023 年 9 月中旬短暂下跌 20%，而随后的下跌幅度仍低于 16%。

"This is still my favorite Bitcoin chart of this cycle," Checkmate proclaimed.

“这仍然是本周期我最喜欢的比特币图表，”Checkmate 宣称。

The absence of a significant correction defies statistical probabilities, as Checkmate acknowledged. "The insight is less about whether we will get one, but rather about the remarkable fact that we haven't already," he stated.

正如 Checkmate 承认的那样，没有出现重大修正违背了统计概率。 “我们的见解不是关于我们是否会得到一个，而是关于我们还没有得到一个的显着事实，”他说。

The strength of Bitcoin bulls stems from a fundamental shift in market dynamics in 2024. Notably, the advent of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced a significant source of buy-side support. Since their launch in January, these ETFs have accumulated over 500,000 BTC.

比特币多头的力量源于 2024 年市场动态的根本性转变。值得注意的是，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的出现引入了买方支持的重要来源。自 1 月份推出以来，这些 ETF 已累积超过 500,000 BTC。

This institutional demand, coupled with phenomena such as multi-year lows in exchanges' BTC balances, has injected a surge of bullish sentiment into the market, setting the stage for a resumption of price discovery.

这种机构需求，加上交易所比特币余额多年来处于低位等现象，为市场注入了看涨情绪，为价格发现的恢复奠定了基础。

However, analysts caution against excessive optimism. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasized that ETF products will inevitably experience periods of net withdrawals, which is a normal aspect of investor behavior.

然而，分析师警告不要过度乐观。 Bloomberg Intelligence 高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 强调，ETF 产品不可避免地会经历净撤回的时期，这是投资者行为的正常现象。

"The inflows have been that epic, and without the ETFs, BTC is probably around $30k, so look at the big picture," Balchunas advised in a tweet.

Balchunas 在推文中建议道：“资金流入规模如此之大，如果没有 ETF，BTC 的价格可能约为 3 万美元，所以请着眼于大局。”

The exceptional resilience of Bitcoin in this cycle, defying historical patterns and statistical likelihood, underscores the transformative impact of institutional adoption and the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset.

比特币在这一周期中的非凡弹性，违背了历史模式和统计可能性，突显了机构采用的变革性影响以及人们日益认识到比特币作为合法投资资产。