比特幣（BTC）最近一直在歷史狹窄的60天價格範圍內進行交易。這通常是按照這樣的壓縮波動段遵循的

在X上的一篇新帖子中，這家鏈分析公司GlassNode討論了BTC最近沒有見證了太多的價格行動。

Bitcoin has seen very little price action lately, but that could be about to change.

比特幣最近幾乎看不到價格行動，但這可能會改變。

According to a recent post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has observed that BTC hasn’t seen much movement in either direction recently. The below chart from the analytics firm shows the historical instances where the 60-day price range was narrower than the current one (in terms of percentage swing).

根據X上最近的一篇文章，鏈上分析公司的玻璃節點已經觀察到，BTC最近在任何一個方向上都沒有看到太多運動。分析公司的下圖顯示了60天價格範圍比當前的範圍窄的歷史實例（就百分比擺動而言）。

From the graph, it’s clear that there have only been a handful of periods where the asset traded between a narrower range during a 60-day period than the last two months. This highlights just how tight the price action has been for Bitcoin.

從圖表中，很明顯，只有幾個時期的資產在60天的範圍內的範圍比過去兩個月更窄。這突出了比特幣的價格動作的緊張程度。

Interestingly, the instances with a more compressed price range all led to particularly volatile periods for the asset. Thus, it’s possible that the latest stale period might also end up unwinding with a really sharp swing in the cryptocurrency.

有趣的是，價格範圍更高的實例都導致資產特別波動的時期。因此，最新的陳舊時期可能最終可能會在加密貨幣中真正急轉彎。

The volatility decompression after a narrow range hasn’t always been bullish; however, the famous November 2019 crash, which marked the bottom of that cycle’s bear market, occurred after historically stale action in the coin’s price.

狹窄範圍後的波動減壓並不總是看漲。然而，著名的2019年11月崩潰標誌著該週期的熊市的底部，是在硬幣價格陳舊的行動之後發生的。

The tight price range isn’t the only indication that Bitcoin could be due for volatility in the near future, as Glassnode has pointed out that a large percentage of the BTC supply is concentrated around the current price level.

緊張的價格範圍並不是唯一的跡象表明比特幣可能在不久的將來發生波動性，因為GlassNode指出，BTC供應的很大一部分集中在當前價格水平附近。

The above chart shows the data for the “Realized Supply Density,” which is an on-chain metric that tells us about the percentage of the asset’s supply that was last purchased within a given range surrounding the current spot Bitcoin price.

上圖顯示了“已實現的供應密度”的數據，該數據是一個鏈度指標，它告訴我們最後在當前現貨比特幣價格圍繞的給定範圍內購買的資產供應百分比。

In the graph, the analytics firm has chosen 15% as the range, meaning that the indicator is displaying the amount of the supply that was last transferred between +15% and -15% from the latest price.

在圖中，分析公司選擇了15％的範圍，這意味著指標顯示了最後一次轉移的供應量距最新價格 +15％至-15％。

The Realized Supply Density for this price range has historically followed a curious pattern: a gradual ascent in its value corresponded to a “volatility building” phase for BTC and a subsequent sharp decline to a “volatility release” one.

該價格範圍的實現供應密度歷史上遵循了一種奇怪的模式：其價值的逐漸上升對應於BTC的“波動性構建”階段，隨後急劇下降到“波動性釋放”。

Recently, Bitcoin has been in the former phase from the perspective of this indicator. Around 20% of the BTC supply is concentrated in the ±15% range right now, which is a high value. “This creates the potential for amplified market volatility as investor profitability shifts,” notes Glassnode.

最近，從該指標的角度來看，比特幣已經處於前一階段。 BTC供應的約20％集中在目前的±15％範圍內，這是一個高價值。 GlassNode指出：“隨著投資者的盈利能力的轉移，這產生了擴大市場波動的潛力。”

BTC Price

BTC價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $105,700, having appreciated by more than 5% over the last seven days.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易約為105,700美元，在過去的七天中，比特幣欣賞了5％以上。