比特幣（BTC）短期波動率下降到多年低點，引發了人們對潛在市場變動的猜測

比特幣的短期波動率最近降至多年來未見水平，引發了人們對潛在的即將到來的市場變動的猜測。

Bitcoin's short-term volatility has hit new lows, reaching levels not seen in years. According to data from Glassnode, the Bitcoin 1-week realized volatility has dropped to 23.42%, approaching historical lows. Over the past four years, the metric has dropped below this level only a few times.

比特幣的短期波動率已經達到了新的低點，幾年來未見水平。根據GlassNode的數據，比特幣1週實現的波動率下降到23.42％，接近歷史低點。在過去的四年中，該指標僅幾次降至此水平以下。

Notably, this occurred in October 2024, when it slumped to 22.88%, and in November 2023, it bottomed at 21.35%. Interestingly, historically, such periods of compressed volatility have been followed by significant uptrends.

值得注意的是，這發生在2024年10月，當時它跌至22.88％，在2023年11月，它的觸底速度為21.35％。有趣的是，從歷史上看，這種壓縮的波動率隨後是重大上升趨勢。

For context, in November 2023, when Bitcoin's 1-week realized volatility touched a low of 21.35%, the premier asset was trading at $27K. By the end of January 2024, its price had appreciated by nearly 100%, reclaiming the $50K mark.

在上下文中，在2023年11月，當比特幣的1週意識到波動率的低點為21.35％時，總理資產的交易價格為27,000美元。到2024年1月底，其價格已欣賞到近100％，收回了5萬美元。

Similarly, in October 2024, Bitcoin was around $63K but has since improved by a similar magnitude, peaking at $110K in January 2025.

同樣，在2024年10月，比特幣約為63,000美元，但此後的進步幅度相似，在2025年1月達到了11萬美元的峰值。

Now, with Bitcoin's short-term volatility revisiting its historical bottom, analysts wonder if another major move is on the horizon. This comes at a time when Bitcoin's performance has been relatively stagnant around the upper $90K region.

現在，隨著比特幣的短期波動率重新審視其歷史底層，分析師懷疑是否另一個主要舉動即將到來。這是在比特幣的表現相對停滯的時候，在上$ 90萬美元的地區。

However, as of today, Bitcoin is making another bold attempt at the $100K level, reaching an intraday high of $99,500 at press time.

但是，截至今天，比特幣正在以10萬美元的價格進行一次大膽的嘗試，在發稿時達到99,500美元的盤中高點。

On the other hand, the 1-week implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin options has similarly dropped to 37.39%, according to Glassnode data. This current figure suggests that traders are not anticipating major short-term price swings.

另一方面，根據GlassNode數據，比特幣選項的1週隱含波動率（IV）同樣下降到37.39％。目前的數字表明，交易者沒有預料到主要的短期價格波動。

It marks a significant dip from earlier levels. The last time IV was this low was in 2023 and early 2024. Also, notable volatility spikes followed.

它標誌著早期水平的顯著下降。上次IV是在2023年和2024年初的低點。此外，隨之而來的顯著波動率峰值。

Despite the short-term calm, longer-term implied volatility remains elevated. Specifically, Bitcoin’s 3-month IV stands at 53.1%, and the 6-month IV is at 56.25%.

儘管短期平靜，但長期隱含的波動率仍然升高。具體而言，比特幣的3個月IV為53.1％，而6個月的IV為56.25％。

These higher levels suggest that, while the market remains uneventful in the short term, traders are still bracing for larger swings in the medium and long term.

這些較高的水平表明，雖然市場在短期內仍然很順利，但交易者仍在中型和長期內為更大的波動提供支持。