比特币（BTC）短期波动率下降到多年低点，引发了人们对潜在市场变动的猜测

比特币的短期波动率最近降至多年来未见水平，引发了人们对潜在的即将到来的市场变动的猜测。

Bitcoin's short-term volatility has hit new lows, reaching levels not seen in years. According to data from Glassnode, the Bitcoin 1-week realized volatility has dropped to 23.42%, approaching historical lows. Over the past four years, the metric has dropped below this level only a few times.

比特币的短期波动率已经达到了新的低点，几年来未见水平。根据GlassNode的数据，比特币1周实现的波动率下降到23.42％，接近历史低点。在过去的四年中，该指标仅几次降至此水平以下。

Notably, this occurred in October 2024, when it slumped to 22.88%, and in November 2023, it bottomed at 21.35%. Interestingly, historically, such periods of compressed volatility have been followed by significant uptrends.

值得注意的是，这发生在2024年10月，当时它跌至22.88％，在2023年11月，它的触底速度为21.35％。有趣的是，从历史上看，这种压缩的波动率随后是重大上升趋势。

For context, in November 2023, when Bitcoin's 1-week realized volatility touched a low of 21.35%, the premier asset was trading at $27K. By the end of January 2024, its price had appreciated by nearly 100%, reclaiming the $50K mark.

在上下文中，在2023年11月，当比特币的1周意识到波动率的低点为21.35％时，总理资产的交易价格为27,000美元。到2024年1月底，其价格已欣赏到近100％，收回了5万美元。

Similarly, in October 2024, Bitcoin was around $63K but has since improved by a similar magnitude, peaking at $110K in January 2025.

同样，在2024年10月，比特币约为63,000美元，但此后的进步幅度相似，在2025年1月达到了11万美元的峰值。

Now, with Bitcoin's short-term volatility revisiting its historical bottom, analysts wonder if another major move is on the horizon. This comes at a time when Bitcoin's performance has been relatively stagnant around the upper $90K region.

现在，随着比特币的短期波动率重新审视其历史底层，分析师怀疑是否另一个主要举动即将到来。这是在比特币的表现相对停滞的时候，在上$ 90万美元的地区。

However, as of today, Bitcoin is making another bold attempt at the $100K level, reaching an intraday high of $99,500 at press time.

但是，截至今天，比特币正在以10万美元的价格进行一次大胆的尝试，在发稿时达到99,500美元的盘中高点。

On the other hand, the 1-week implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin options has similarly dropped to 37.39%, according to Glassnode data. This current figure suggests that traders are not anticipating major short-term price swings.

另一方面，根据GlassNode数据，比特币选项的1周隐含波动率（IV）同样下降到37.39％。目前的数字表明，交易者没有预料到主要的短期价格波动。

It marks a significant dip from earlier levels. The last time IV was this low was in 2023 and early 2024. Also, notable volatility spikes followed.

它标志着早期水平的显着下降。上次IV是在2023年和2024年初的低点。此外，随之而来的显着波动率峰值。

Despite the short-term calm, longer-term implied volatility remains elevated. Specifically, Bitcoin’s 3-month IV stands at 53.1%, and the 6-month IV is at 56.25%.

尽管短期平静，但长期隐含的波动率仍然升高。具体而言，比特币的3个月IV为53.1％，而6个月的IV为56.25％。

These higher levels suggest that, while the market remains uneventful in the short term, traders are still bracing for larger swings in the medium and long term.

这些较高的水平表明，虽然市场在短期内仍然很顺利，但交易者仍在中型和长期内为更大的波动提供支持。