比特幣 (BTC) 回落至 9.7 萬美元，MVRV 評分暗示 BTC 價格仍然便宜

在聯準會表示 2025 年僅降息兩次後，比特幣 (BTC) 已從歷史高點 108,427 美元回落至 97,000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has had a strong performance this year as it jumped by 120%, beating popular assets like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 indices.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格今年表現強勁，上漲了 120%，擊敗了納斯達克 100 指數和標準普爾 500 指數等熱門資產。

However, the coin took a beating this week after the Federal Reserve pointed to just two interest rate cuts in 2025.

然而，在聯準會表示 2025 年僅降息兩次後，本週比特幣遭受重挫。

As a result, BTC price dropped to $97,000 from the all-time high of $108,427. At the same time, spot ETF flows showed that some investors believe that Bitcoin may have topped.

結果，BTC 價格從歷史高點 108,427 美元跌至 97,000 美元。同時，現貨 ETF 流量顯示，一些投資者認為比特幣可能已經見頂。

According to SoSoValue, these funds had net outflows of $276 million on Friday, a day after they shed $680 million in assets.

據 SoSoValue 稱，這些基金在周五淨流出 2.76 億美元，而它們在一天前就拋售了 6.8 億美元的資產。

This happened as the MVRV score showed that Bitcoin price is still cheap even after moving to a record high last week.

發生這種情況的原因是 MVRV 分數顯示，即使上周升至歷史新高，比特幣價格仍然便宜。

According to CoinGlass, the MVRV-Z score has dropped to 2.84 from last week’s high of 3.3. Historically, an MVRV-Z score figure below 3.7 is a sign that an asset is undervalued.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，MVRV-Z 得分已從上週的高點 3.3 降至 2.84。從歷史上看，MVRV-Z 得分低於 3.7 表明資產被低估。

The MVRV-Z score is an important indicator that looks at the market value and the relative value of a coin. It is calculated by subtracting the realized market capitalization from the circulation market value and then dividing the figure by the standard deviation.

MVRV-Z 分數是衡量代幣市場價值和相對價值的重要指標。計算方法是用流通市值減去已實現市值，再除以標準差。

Bitcoin had an MVRV score of 3.03 in the last big correction in March this year, and 7 in the previous major correction in January 2021.

比特幣在今年 3 月的上一次大調整中的 MVRV 得分為 3.03，在 2021 年 1 月的上一次大調整中，MVRV 得分為 7。

Therefore, this score is a sign that the coin could recover strongly in the next few weeks. As we wrote in a recent BTC forecast, the cup and handle pattern points to a rally to $122,000 in this bullish cycle.

因此，這一分數表明代幣可能在未來幾週內強勁復甦。正如我們在最近的 BTC 預測中所寫，杯柄模式表明在這個看漲週期中將反彈至 122,000 美元。

BTC has other strong fundamentals

比特幣還有其他強勁的基本面

The coin also has some strong fundamentals. As shown below, the number of Bitcoins in circulation has dropped to a multi-year low of 2.24 million. There were over 2.72 million coins in exchanges in September this year.

該代幣還具有一些強大的基本面。如下圖所示，流通中的比特幣數量已降至多年來的最低點224萬個。今年 9 月份，交易所中有超過 272 萬枚代幣。

That indicates that more investors are buying and storing Bitcoins in self-custody wallets. Some of these investors are those accumulating ETFs, which now have over $109 billion in assets. Companies like Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy have also continued to accumulate Bitcoins this year.

這表明越來越多的投資者正在購買比特幣並將其儲存在自我託管錢包中。其中一些投資者是那些累積 ETF 的投資者，這些投資者目前擁有超過 1,090 億美元的資產。 Marathon Digital 和 MicroStrategy 等公司今年也持續累積比特幣。

MicroStrategy now holds over 439,000 coins.

MicroStrategy 目前持有超過 439,000 個代幣。

The other potential catalyst for Bitcoin is that the stablecoin market cap has jumped to almost $210 billion, up from $122 billion a year earlier.

比特幣的另一個潛在催化劑是穩定幣市值已從一年前的 1,220 億美元躍升至近 2,100 億美元。

A rise in stablecoin value is usually a positive indication, underscoring how more investors are showing interest in cryptocurrencies.

穩定幣價值的上漲通常是一個積極的跡象，突顯出越來越多的投資者對加密貨幣表現出興趣。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has continued falling, moving to 1.12% from the 2015 high of almost 12%. This inflation rate has fallen because of the halving events and the rising mining difficulty rate.

同時，比特幣的年通膨率持續下降，從 2015 年近 12% 的高點降至 1.12%。由於減半事件和挖礦難度上升，通膨率下降。

Therefore, while more Bitcoin pullback is possible, there are signs that its favorable MVRV score and strong fundamentals will help to push it higher in the longer term.

因此，雖然比特幣可能出現更多回調，但有跡象表明，其良好的 MVRV 評分和強勁的基本面將有助於在長期內推動其走高。