比特幣（BTC）已實現上限創歷史新高，預示看漲勢頭

比特幣市場對價格波動並不陌生，投資者不斷觀察顯示潛在變化的指標。有關該代幣已實現上限的數據正在為看漲的敘述增添色彩。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] market is renowned for its price volatility, with investors keeping a close eye on metrics that could signal potential shifts. And now, data on the coin’s realized cap is adding weight to a bullish narrative.

比特幣 [BTC] 市場以其價格波動而聞名，投資者密切關注可能預示潛在變化的指標。現在，有關該代幣已實現上限的數據正在為看漲的敘述增添色彩。

Recently, Bitcoin’s realized cap saw a significant uptick, a shift that could be crucial in predicting BTC’s price direction. So, what does the rise in realized cap imply for BTC’s price trend? Let’s delve in.

最近，比特幣的已實現上限大幅上升，這一轉變對於預測比特幣的價格走向至關重要。那麼，已實現上限的上升對比特幣的價格走勢意味著什麼？讓我們深入研究一下。

Bitcoin sees record realized market capitalization

比特幣實現市值創歷史新高

The realized cap serves as an alternative to the market cap, accounting for each Bitcoin’s last acquisition cost instead of its current market value. It reflects the sentiment of holders who acquired BTC at different price points.

已實現上限是市值的替代方案，它考慮了每個比特幣的最後購買成本，而不是其當前的市場價值。它反映了以不同價格點購買 BTC 的持有者的情緒。

Analysis of the metric on Glassnode showed that it has risen to around $663 billion, the highest in its history.

Glassnode 上的指標分析顯示，該數字已升至 6,630 億美元左右，為歷史最高水準。

A rising realized cap suggests that coins held by long-term investors are growing in value. This is a positive sign of market stability and investor confidence. The recent increase in Bitcoin’s realized cap indicated that more capital is flowing into BTC, even as the price fluctuates.

已實現上限的上升表明長期投資者持有的代幣價值正在增長。這是市場穩定和投資者信心的積極跡象。最近比特幣已實現上限的增加表明，即使價格波動，仍有更多資本流入比特幣。

For Bitcoin, an increased realized cap often indicates less selling pressure among holders. An analysis of the realized cap showed that over the years, when the metric hits an all-time high, there is usually a price decline, followed by another all-time high for the coin.

對於比特幣來說，實現上限的增加通常表示持有者的拋售壓力較小。對已實現上限的分析表明，多年來，當該指標達到歷史新高時，通常會出現價格下跌，然後代幣又創下歷史新高。

With BTC’s realized cap reaching new highs, it shows that investors have added confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future price growth. This potentially reduces the supply available for trading.

隨著比特幣的實現上限創下新高，這表明投資者對加密貨幣未來價格成長的信心增強。這可能會減少可用於交易的供應量。

The impact on BTC’s price trend

對BTC價格走勢的影響

The upward shift in realized cap could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price. As the realized cap grew, it suggested that more investors were holding onto their assets rather than selling.

已實現上限的上移可能會對比特幣的價格產生重大影響。隨著已實現上限的成長，這表明更多的投資者持有資產而不是出售資產。

This move could support BTC’s current price levels and provide a foundation for further price appreciation.

此舉可能會支撐比特幣當前的價格水平，並為價格進一步升值奠定基礎。

Technical indicators, such as the moving averages on BTC’s price chart, corroborate this sentiment. At press time, BTC was trending above its 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages(MA), showing bullish momentum.

技術指標，例如比特幣價格圖表上的移動平均線，證實了這種情緒。截至發稿，BTC 趨勢高於 50 日和 200 日移動平均線（MA），顯示出看漲勢頭。

If the realized cap continues to grow, it may encourage more investors to buy and hold, contributing to sustained price support at higher levels.

如果已實現上限繼續成長，可能會鼓勵更多投資者買入並持有，從而為更高水準的價格提供持續支撐。

Key levels indicate BTC’s next move

關鍵水平預示著比特幣的下一步走勢

Analysis of data from Hyblock pointed out that Bitcoin was trading within a tight range between the previous day’s high (pdHigh) and the combined levels of the previous day’s open and equilibrium (pdOpen + pdEQ). Market dynamics suggested significant resistance and support zones at these levels.

Hyblock 的數據分析指出，比特幣在前一天的高點（pdHigh）與前一天的開盤價和均衡價的組合水準（pdOpen + pdEQ）之間的窄幅區間內交易。市場動態顯示這些水準存在顯著的阻力和支撐區域。

According to the latest data, BTC faced resistance around the pdHigh, where a cluster of short liquidation levels indicates strong selling pressure.

根據最新數據，BTC 在 pdHigh 附近面臨阻力，一系列空頭清算水準表明強勁的拋售壓力。

If Bitcoin breaches this level, it could trigger short liquidations, fueling upward momentum.

如果比特幣突破這一水平，可能會引發空頭清算，從而推動上漲勢頭。

On the support side, Bitcoin found strength around the pdOpen + pdEQ zone, providing a potential entry point for bullish traders. Long liquidation levels below the pdLow indicated additional support layers that could prevent a sharp decline, especially if buying interest increases.

在支撐方面，比特幣在 pdOpen + pdEQ 區域附近發現了強勢，為看漲交易者提供了潛在的切入點。低於 pdLow 的多頭清算水準表明存在額外的支撐層，可以防止價格急劇下跌，特別是在購買興趣增加的情況下。

This consolidation reflected a market in wait-and-see mode. It aligns with broader trends in Bitcoin’s rising realized cap. This highlights strong long-term holder confidence.

這種盤整反映出市場處於觀望狀態。它與比特幣實現上限不斷上升的更廣泛趨勢一致。這凸顯了長期持有者的強勁信心。

What to expect in the coming months?

未來幾個月會發生什麼事？

Historically, substantial price gains have often followed a rising realized cap during a BTC uptrend. This is because investor sentiment remains strong, and sell-offs are limited.

從歷史上看，在比特幣上漲趨勢期間，價格的大幅上漲往往伴隨著已實現上限的上升。這是因為投資人情緒依然強勁，拋售有限。

Bitcoin could be positioned for another rally if this trend continues, potentially reaching or even exceeding recent highs. Additionally, the Average True Range (ATR) values indicate manageable volatility, providing a stable environment for BTC’s continued growth.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，比特幣可能會迎來另一次反彈，有可能達到甚至超過近期高點。此外，平均真實波動幅度（ATR）值顯示波動性可控，為比特幣的持續成長提供了穩定的環境。

The rising realized cap suggests a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s price, as long-term holders show minimal intent to sell.

已實現上限的上升表明比特幣的價格具有堅實的基礎，因為長期持有者的出售意願微乎其微。

If historical patterns hold, this trend could act as a launching pad for Bitcoin to achieve new price milestones.

如果歷史模式成立，這個趨勢可能成為比特幣實現新價格里程碑的跳板。