比特幣（BTC）可能已經達到了這個牛週期的高峰，因為技術指標表明動量損失

加密市場技術人員正在辯論比特幣在這個公牛週期中是否達到頂峰，因為技術指標表明潛在的勢頭損失。

A crypto market technician is debating whether Bitcoin has reached its peak this bull cycle, as technical indicators suggest a potential loss of momentum. The analysis report highlights technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which failed to reach past extremes, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

加密市場技術人員正在辯論比特幣在這個公牛週期中是否達到頂峰，因為技術指標表明潛在的勢頭損失。分析報告突出了技術指標，例如相對強度指數（RSI）未能達到過去的極端，這引起了對比特幣未來軌蹟的擔憂。

Bitcoin Indicators Fall Short Of Historical Peaks

比特幣指標缺乏歷史峰

Bitcoin has historically exhibited strong indicator readings during major cycle tops, reflecting extreme market engagement and enthusiasm. However, in this bull cycle, the pioneer cryptocurrency’s RSI reading has failed to reach historical peaks despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.

從歷史上看，比特幣在主要周期上表現出了強大的指標讀數，反映了極端的市場參與和熱情。然而，在這個公牛週期中，儘管比特幣達到了新的歷史最高點，但先鋒加密貨幣的RSI閱讀仍未達到歷史峰值。

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Tony Severino, a crypto market technician on X (formerly Twitter), has shared an analysis of Bitcoin, challenging the assumption that the cryptocurrency must reach the same overbought RSI levels as in previous cycles to confirm its market peak. The key argument here is that lower highs on oscillators like the RSI, combined with higher highs in Bitcoin’s price, can be a bearish signal, suggesting waning strength in the market.

X（以前是Twitter）上的加密市場技術員Tony Severino分析了對比特幣的分析，挑戰了加密貨幣必須達到與以前的周期相同的過多的RSI水平，以確認其市場峰值。這裡的關鍵論點是，諸如RSI之類的振盪器的較低高點，再加上比特幣的價格較高的高點，可能是一個看跌信號，這表明市場上的強度減弱。

The analyst shared an example comparing Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to past cycles. In the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI went over 90, but its current cycle has not. The analyst posed a question about whether this inability to reach past extremes means that Bitcoin hasn’t reached a market top or simply lacked the same momentum to push its RSI to the highest level.

分析師分享了一個示例，將比特幣當前的牛週期與過去的周期進行了比較。在以前的牛市，比特幣的每月RSI超過90，但目前的周期卻沒有。分析師提出了一個問題，即這種無法達到過去的極端狀況是否意味著比特幣尚未達到市場頂部，或者只是缺乏將其RSI推向最高水平的相同勢頭。

The analyst has warned that believing that Bitcoin must reach past extremes on indicators before hitting a price peak is a dangerous way of thinking. Historical patterns do not always repeat in the same way, and relying too much on past indicator peaks could cause traders to miss warning signs of a top or underestimate the possibility of a bear market.

分析師警告說，認為比特幣在達到價格峰之前必須在指標上實現過去的極端，這是一種危險的思維方式。歷史模式並不總是以相同的方式重複，並且過多地依靠過去的指標峰可能會導致交易者錯過高層或低估熊市可能性的警告信號。

Severino also pointed to historical data from the S&P 500 in the 1950s and 1960s, where similar RSI failure preceded a long market downturn. During these times, cyclical peaks hit RSI readings of 77 or higher, but in 1969, the RSI failed to reach those highs, signaling underlying weakness. This market downturn ultimately led to the first lower low in over 20 years.

Severino還指出了1950年代和1960年代標準普爾500指數的歷史數據，那裡的RSI失敗在漫長的市場衰退之前。在這段時間裡，週期性峰達到了77或更高的RSI讀數，但是在1969年，RSI未能達到這些高點，信號是潛在的弱點。這個市場低迷最終導致了20多年來的第一個較低低點。

While this historical behavior of the S&P 500 does not mean that Bitcoin is destined for a lower high, it does suggest that the cryptocurrency does not need to reach extreme RSI levels to confirm a cycle top and a subsequent bear market.

儘管標準普爾500指數的這種歷史行為並不意味著比特幣注定要以較低的高度，但它確實表明加密貨幣不需要達到極端的RSI水平即可確認週期頂部和隨後的熊市。

Analyst Says BTC Has Hit Its Market Top

分析師說，BTC已經達到了市場最高

In his analysis Severino confirmed that Bitcoin has already hit its market top for this bull cycle. Following his detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s RSI levels, a community member asked if Severino believes that Bitcoin reached a market top when its price surged above $109,000.

Severino在他的分析中確認，比特幣已經在該公牛週期中達到了市場的頂峰。在對比特幣的RSI水平的詳細分析之後，一個社區成員詢問Severino是否認為比特幣的價格飆升至109,000美元以上。

The analyst responded positively, stating that current market data indicates that the cryptocurrency hit its highest price point for this bull cycle after Donald Trump’s US Inauguration Day. At the time, Bitcoin soared past $109,000, setting a new ATH and surpassing previous records.

分析師做出了積極的反應，指出當前的市場數據表明，在唐納德·特朗普的美國就職日之後，加密貨幣達到了該公牛週期的最高價格。當時，比特幣飆升了109,000美元，創造了一個新的ATH並超過了以前的記錄。