比特币（BTC）可能已经达到了这个牛周期的高峰，因为技术指标表明动量损失

加密市场技术人员正在辩论比特币在这个公牛周期中是否达到顶峰，因为技术指标表明潜在的势头损失。

A crypto market technician is debating whether Bitcoin has reached its peak this bull cycle, as technical indicators suggest a potential loss of momentum. The analysis report highlights technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which failed to reach past extremes, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

加密市场技术人员正在辩论比特币在这个公牛周期中是否达到顶峰，因为技术指标表明潜在的势头损失。分析报告突出了技术指标，例如相对强度指数（RSI）未能达到过去的极端，这引起了对比特币未来轨迹的担忧。

Bitcoin Indicators Fall Short Of Historical Peaks

比特币指标缺乏历史峰

Bitcoin has historically exhibited strong indicator readings during major cycle tops, reflecting extreme market engagement and enthusiasm. However, in this bull cycle, the pioneer cryptocurrency’s RSI reading has failed to reach historical peaks despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.

从历史上看，比特币在主要周期上表现出了强大的指标读数，反映了极端的市场参与和热情。然而，在这个公牛周期中，尽管比特币达到了新的历史最高点，但先锋加密货币的RSI阅读仍未达到历史峰值。

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Tony Severino, a crypto market technician on X (formerly Twitter), has shared an analysis of Bitcoin, challenging the assumption that the cryptocurrency must reach the same overbought RSI levels as in previous cycles to confirm its market peak. The key argument here is that lower highs on oscillators like the RSI, combined with higher highs in Bitcoin’s price, can be a bearish signal, suggesting waning strength in the market.

X（以前是Twitter）上的加密市场技术员Tony Severino分析了对比特币的分析，挑战了加密货币必须达到与以前的周期相同的过多的RSI水平，以确认其市场峰值。这里的关键论点是，诸如RSI之类的振荡器的较低高点，再加上比特币的价格较高的高点，可能是一个看跌信号，这表明市场上的强度减弱。

The analyst shared an example comparing Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to past cycles. In the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s monthly RSI went over 90, but its current cycle has not. The analyst posed a question about whether this inability to reach past extremes means that Bitcoin hasn’t reached a market top or simply lacked the same momentum to push its RSI to the highest level.

分析师分享了一个示例，将比特币当前的牛周期与过去的周期进行了比较。在以前的牛市，比特币的每月RSI超过90，但目前的周期却没有。分析师提出了一个问题，即这种无法达到过去的极端状况是否意味着比特币尚未达到市场顶部，或者只是缺乏将其RSI推向最高水平的相同势头。

The analyst has warned that believing that Bitcoin must reach past extremes on indicators before hitting a price peak is a dangerous way of thinking. Historical patterns do not always repeat in the same way, and relying too much on past indicator peaks could cause traders to miss warning signs of a top or underestimate the possibility of a bear market.

分析师警告说，认为比特币在达到价格峰之前必须在指标上实现过去的极端，这是一种危险的思维方式。历史模式并不总是以相同的方式重复，并且过多地依靠过去的指标峰可能会导致交易者错过高层或低估熊市可能性的警告信号。

Severino also pointed to historical data from the S&P 500 in the 1950s and 1960s, where similar RSI failure preceded a long market downturn. During these times, cyclical peaks hit RSI readings of 77 or higher, but in 1969, the RSI failed to reach those highs, signaling underlying weakness. This market downturn ultimately led to the first lower low in over 20 years.

Severino还指出了1950年代和1960年代标准普尔500指数的历史数据，那里的RSI失败在漫长的市场衰退之前。在这段时间里，周期性峰达到了77或更高的RSI读数，但是在1969年，RSI未能达到这些高点，信号是潜在的弱点。这个市场低迷最终导致了20多年来的第一个较低低点。

While this historical behavior of the S&P 500 does not mean that Bitcoin is destined for a lower high, it does suggest that the cryptocurrency does not need to reach extreme RSI levels to confirm a cycle top and a subsequent bear market.

尽管标准普尔500指数的这种历史行为并不意味着比特币注定要以较低的高度，但它确实表明加密货币不需要达到极端的RSI水平即可确认周期顶部和随后的熊市。

Analyst Says BTC Has Hit Its Market Top

分析师说，BTC已经达到了市场最高

In his analysis Severino confirmed that Bitcoin has already hit its market top for this bull cycle. Following his detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s RSI levels, a community member asked if Severino believes that Bitcoin reached a market top when its price surged above $109,000.

Severino在他的分析中确认，比特币已经在该公牛周期中达到了市场的顶峰。在对比特币的RSI水平的详细分析之后，一个社区成员询问Severino是否认为比特币的价格飙升至109,000美元以上。

The analyst responded positively, stating that current market data indicates that the cryptocurrency hit its highest price point for this bull cycle after Donald Trump’s US Inauguration Day. At the time, Bitcoin soared past $109,000, setting a new ATH and surpassing previous records.

分析师做出了积极的反应，指出当前的市场数据表明，在唐纳德·特朗普的美国就职日之后，加密货币达到了该公牛周期的最高价格。当时，比特币飙升了109,000美元，创造了一个新的ATH并超过了以前的记录。