比特幣 (BTC) 可能在 10 月第一周達到 7 萬美元，原因如下

比特幣 [BTC] 經歷了一個看漲的周末，短暫測試了 6 萬美元大關，然後回落。截至發稿，交易價格為 58,272 美元，出現短暫回落

Bitcoin [BTC] had a bullish weekend, briefly testing the $60K mark before pulling back. At press time, it traded at $58,272, reflecting a momentary retreat after the surge.

比特幣 [BTC] 經歷了一個看漲的周末，短暫測試了 6 萬美元大關，然後回調。截至發稿，其交易價格為 58,272 美元，在飆升後出現短暫回落。

With prices retracing, hope hinges on the impending Fed rate cut—but it’s not the only factor. As BTC enters its 148th day post-halving, a hidden pattern suggests the breakout may be closer than expected.

隨著價格回落，希望取決於聯準會即將降息，但這並不是唯一因素。隨著 BTC 進入減半後的第 148 天，一種隱藏的模式表明突破可能比預期更接近。

The chart highlights a recurring trend in the Bitcoin cycle emerging after each halving season. For context, Bitcoin halving is a deflationary model occurring every four years, reducing the Bitcoin supply by half.

該圖表突顯了每個減半季節後出現的比特幣週期的反覆趨勢。就背景而言，比特幣減半是一種每四年發生一次的通貨緊縮模型，使比特幣供應量減少一半。

From an economic standpoint, a reduced supply increases the value of each coin. Consequently, each cycle typically sees an upward trend begin after an average of 170 days.

從經濟角度來看，供應量減少會增加每枚硬幣的價值。因此，每個週期通常會在平均 170 天後開始出現上升趨勢。

For instance, following the halving on 11th May, four years ago, BTC first tested the $40K ceiling on the daily price chart approximately 170 days later. A more significant peak pushed BTC above $50K roughly 480 days after, around early August.

例如，四年前的 5 月 11 日減半後，大約 170 天后，BTC 首次在每日價格圖表上測試了 4 萬美元的上限。大約 480 天后，即 8 月初左右，比特幣出現了更顯著的峰值，突破了 5 萬美元。

A similar pattern has been observed after each halving period. If this trend holds, BTC might reach $70K in the first week of October before facing resistance. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting could further influence this hypothesis.

每個減半期後都會觀察到類似的模式。如果這種趨勢持續下去，比特幣可能會在 10 月第一周達到 7 萬美元，然後面臨阻力。此外，即將召開的聯邦公開市場委員會會議可能會進一步影響這一假設。

Although the historical trend looks promising, reality must be factored in—so, is a potential rebound just 23 days away?

儘管歷史趨勢看起來很有希望，但必須考慮到現實——那麼，距離反彈是否只有 23 天了？

Seasoned investors are confident in a potential price correction. Historically, a rising LTH SOPR supports each bull rally, indicating long-term holders are realizing profits.

經驗豐富的投資者對潛在的價格調整充滿信心。從歷史上看，LTH SOPR 的上升支持每次牛市反彈，表明長期持有者正在實現利潤。

While the uptick is a sign of optimism, if the price does not match the rise, it could undermine the expected correction. This may prompt long-term holders to sell at a profit rather than risk losses.

雖然上漲是樂觀的跡象，但如果價格與漲幅不匹配，則可能會破壞預期的調整。這可能會促使長期持有者賣出獲利，而不是冒著損失的風險。

Put simply, long-term holders realizing profits signals strength in Bitcoin’s current market value. If this trend persists, a reversal could be imminent. However, a price retrace below $57K might signal concern.

簡而言之，長​​期持有者實現利潤標誌著比特幣當前市場價值的強勁。如果這種趨勢持續下去，逆轉可能迫在眉睫。然而，價格回撤至 57,000 美元以下可能會引發擔憂。

The LTHs represent a significant portion of investors, but they alone do not fully capture market confidence in an October upward trend.

LTH 代表了投資者的很大一部分，但僅靠他們並不能充分體現市場對 10 月上升趨勢的信心。

That said, analyzing futures traders can provide better insights.

也就是說，分析期貨交易者可以提供更好的見解。

While shorts have dominated derivatives for a while, longs have recently increased their presence, as shown by the positive funding rate. Historically, a positive funding rate indicates confidence among futures traders, suggesting they expect BTC prices to rise.

雖然空頭在一段時間內主導了衍生品，但多頭最近增加了其存在，正如正的融資利率所表明的那樣。從歷史上看，正的融資利率表明期貨交易者有信心，表明他們預計 BTC 價格會上漲。

Moreover, this aligns with AMBCrypto’s earlier projections, which noted that a positive sentiment often precedes BTC testing crucial price ranges.

此外，這與 AMBCrypto 的早期預測一致，該預測指出，在 BTC 測試關鍵價格範圍之前往往會出現正面情緒。

Though appreciated, a more consistently positive funding rate could improve the chances of a Bitcoin rebound in the next two weeks.

儘管受到讚賞，但更持續的正融資利率可能會提高比特幣在未來兩週內反彈的機會。

Surprisingly, despite renewed dominance, BTC fell below $60K, suggesting potential third-party involvement.

令人驚訝的是，儘管 BTC 重新佔據主導地位，但仍跌破 6 萬美元，這表明潛在的第三方參與。

While this indicates a slight divergence, other factors may neutralize its long-term impact. The question remains: Will the downtrend hold?

雖然這表明存在輕微差異，但其他因素可能會抵消其長期影響。問題仍然是：下降趨勢會持續嗎？

The chart below shows the MVRV-Z score approaching the green box, a zone that historically signals undervaluation. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has typically resulted in outsized returns, with BTC prices rallying afterward.

下圖顯示 MVRV-Z 得分接近綠框，該區域歷來顯示估值被低估。在這些時期購買比特幣通常會帶來巨額回報，隨後比特幣價格就會上漲。

However, if the halving trend holds true, the current MVRV mirrors the mid-September value from four years ago—just before the Z-score entered the pink box, which signals the market cycle top. The above mentioned charts support this scenario.

然而，如果減半趨勢成立，當前的 MVRV 會反映四年前 9 月中旬的值——就在 Z 分數進入粉紅色方框之前，這標誌著市場週期的頂部。上述圖表支持這種情況。

Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024-25

閱讀 2024-25 年比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測

According to AMBCrypto, October could start with Bitcoin testing the market top around $70K, provided recent profit-takers refrain from selling, LTH continues to hold, and longs maintain dominance in the perpetual market.

據 AMBCrypto 稱，如果近期獲利了結者不拋售、LTH 繼續持有且多頭在永久市場中保持主導地位，那麼 10 月份比特幣可能會測試 7 萬美元左右的市場頂部。

If this plays out, the halving effect hypothesis would be confirmed as “true.”

如果這種情況發生，減半效應假設將被證實為「正確」。