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比特币 [BTC] 经历了一个看涨的周末,短暂测试了 6 万美元大关,然后回落。截至发稿,交易价格为 58,272 美元,出现短暂回落
Bitcoin [BTC] had a bullish weekend, briefly testing the $60K mark before pulling back. At press time, it traded at $58,272, reflecting a momentary retreat after the surge.
比特币 [BTC] 经历了一个看涨的周末,短暂测试了 6 万美元大关,然后回落。截至发稿时,其交易价格为 58,272 美元,反映了飙升后的短暂回落。
With prices retracing, hope hinges on the impending Fed rate cut—but it’s not the only factor. As BTC enters its 148th day post-halving, a hidden pattern suggests the breakout may be closer than expected.
随着价格回落,希望取决于美联储即将降息,但这并不是唯一因素。随着 BTC 进入减半后的第 148 天,一种隐藏的模式表明突破可能比预期更接近。
The chart highlights a recurring trend in the Bitcoin cycle emerging after each halving season. For context, Bitcoin halving is a deflationary model occurring every four years, reducing the Bitcoin supply by half.
该图表突出显示了每个减半季节后出现的比特币周期的反复趋势。就背景而言,比特币减半是一种每四年发生一次的通货紧缩模型,使比特币供应量减少一半。
From an economic standpoint, a reduced supply increases the value of each coin. Consequently, each cycle typically sees an upward trend begin after an average of 170 days.
从经济角度来看,供应量减少会增加每枚硬币的价值。因此,每个周期通常会在平均 170 天后开始出现上升趋势。
For instance, following the halving on 11th May, four years ago, BTC first tested the $40K ceiling on the daily price chart approximately 170 days later. A more significant peak pushed BTC above $50K roughly 480 days after, around early August.
例如,四年前的 5 月 11 日减半后,大约 170 天后,BTC 首次在每日价格图表上测试了 4 万美元的上限。大约 480 天后,即 8 月初左右,比特币出现了一次更显着的峰值,突破了 5 万美元。
A similar pattern has been observed after each halving period. If this trend holds, BTC might reach $70K in the first week of October before facing resistance. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting could further influence this hypothesis.
每个减半期后都会观察到类似的模式。如果这种趋势持续下去,比特币可能会在 10 月第一周达到 7 万美元,然后面临阻力。此外,即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会会议可能会进一步影响这一假设。
Although the historical trend looks promising, reality must be factored in—so, is a potential rebound just 23 days away?
尽管历史趋势看起来很有希望,但必须考虑到现实——那么,距离反弹是否只有 23 天了?
Seasoned investors are confident in a potential price correction. Historically, a rising LTH SOPR supports each bull rally, indicating long-term holders are realizing profits.
经验丰富的投资者对潜在的价格调整充满信心。从历史上看,LTH SOPR 的上升支持每次牛市反弹,表明长期持有者正在实现利润。
While the uptick is a sign of optimism, if the price does not match the rise, it could undermine the expected correction. This may prompt long-term holders to sell at a profit rather than risk losses.
虽然上涨是乐观的迹象,但如果价格与涨幅不匹配,则可能会破坏预期的调整。这可能会促使长期持有者卖出获利,而不是冒着损失的风险。
Put simply, long-term holders realizing profits signals strength in Bitcoin’s current market value. If this trend persists, a reversal could be imminent. However, a price retrace below $57K might signal concern.
简而言之,长期持有者实现利润标志着比特币当前市场价值的强劲。如果这种趋势持续下去,逆转可能迫在眉睫。然而,价格回撤至 57,000 美元以下可能会引发担忧。
The LTHs represent a significant portion of investors, but they alone do not fully capture market confidence in an October upward trend.
LTH 代表了投资者的很大一部分,但仅靠他们并不能充分体现市场对 10 月份上升趋势的信心。
That said, analyzing futures traders can provide better insights.
也就是说,分析期货交易者可以提供更好的见解。
While shorts have dominated derivatives for a while, longs have recently increased their presence, as shown by the positive funding rate. Historically, a positive funding rate indicates confidence among futures traders, suggesting they expect BTC prices to rise.
虽然空头在一段时间内主导了衍生品,但多头最近增加了其存在,正如正的融资利率所表明的那样。从历史上看,正的融资利率表明期货交易者有信心,表明他们预计 BTC 价格会上涨。
Moreover, this aligns with AMBCrypto’s earlier projections, which noted that a positive sentiment often precedes BTC testing crucial price ranges.
此外,这与 AMBCrypto 的早期预测相一致,该预测指出,在 BTC 测试关键价格范围之前往往会出现积极情绪。
Though appreciated, a more consistently positive funding rate could improve the chances of a Bitcoin rebound in the next two weeks.
尽管受到赞赏,但更持续的正融资利率可能会提高比特币在未来两周内反弹的机会。
Surprisingly, despite renewed dominance, BTC fell below $60K, suggesting potential third-party involvement.
令人惊讶的是,尽管 BTC 重新占据主导地位,但仍跌破 6 万美元,这表明潜在的第三方参与。
While this indicates a slight divergence, other factors may neutralize its long-term impact. The question remains: Will the downtrend hold?
虽然这表明存在轻微差异,但其他因素可能会抵消其长期影响。问题仍然是:下降趋势会持续吗?
The chart below shows the MVRV-Z score approaching the green box, a zone that historically signals undervaluation. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has typically resulted in outsized returns, with BTC prices rallying afterward.
下图显示 MVRV-Z 得分接近绿框,该区域历来表明估值被低估。在这些时期购买比特币通常会带来巨额回报,随后比特币价格就会上涨。
However, if the halving trend holds true, the current MVRV mirrors the mid-September value from four years ago—just before the Z-score entered the pink box, which signals the market cycle top. The above mentioned charts support this scenario.
然而,如果减半趋势成立,当前的 MVRV 会反映四年前 9 月中旬的值——就在 Z 分数进入粉红色方框之前,这标志着市场周期的顶部。上述图表支持这种情况。
Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024-25
阅读 2024-25 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测
According to AMBCrypto, October could start with Bitcoin testing the market top around $70K, provided recent profit-takers refrain from selling, LTH continues to hold, and longs maintain dominance in the perpetual market.
据 AMBCrypto 称,如果近期获利了结者不抛售、LTH 继续持有且多头在永久市场中保持主导地位,那么 10 月份比特币可能会测试 7 万美元左右的市场顶部。
If this plays out, the halving effect hypothesis would be confirmed as “true.”
如果这种情况发生,减半效应假设将被证实为“正确”。
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