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Professional Capital Management 創辦人兼執行長 Anthony Pompliano 發表了他對比特幣現狀以及聯邦監管機構如何看待比特幣的看法。
Squawk Box had Anthony Pompliano, the founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, on earlier today to discuss Bitcoin and how the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have impacted the broader cryptocurrency market.
今天早些時候,專業資本管理公司的創始人兼執行長 Anthony Pompliano 在 Squawk Box 上討論了比特幣以及聯準會最近的降息對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的影響。
A well-known Bitcoin advocate, Pompliano shared his thoughts on the digital asset in light of the economic changes and discussed its unique relationship with global liquidity.
作為著名的比特幣倡導者,Pompliano 分享了他根據經濟變化對數位資產的看法,並討論了其與全球流動性的獨特關係。
Bitcoin's Recent Performance
比特幣近期表現
According to Pompliano, Bitcoin has had an extraordinary year, with its price rising 140% and trading just below $64,000. He largely attributes this growth to broader economic policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This shift in monetary policy has helped Bitcoin become the top-performing asset of the year.
Pompliano 表示,比特幣度過了不平凡的一年,其價格上漲了 140%,交易價格略低於 64,000 美元。他將這種成長主要歸因於更廣泛的經濟政策,特別是聯準會降息 50 個基點的決定。貨幣政策的轉變幫助比特幣成為今年表現最好的資產。
"Bitcoin is the best performing asset so far this year, with gold and oil futures trailing behind it," said Pompliano.
龐普里亞諾表示:“比特幣是今年迄今為止表現最好的資產,黃金和石油期貨緊隨其後。”
Pompliano also cited a recent study by Lyn Alden and Sam Gallagan that further bolsters his confidence in Bitcoin. The study suggests that Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to changes in global liquidity, responding to liquidity shifts 83% of the time. According to Pompliano, this makes Bitcoin more reactive than traditional market assets such as the S&P 500.
Pompliano 也引用了 Lyn Alden 和 Sam Gallagan 最近的一項研究,進一步增強了他對比特幣的信心。研究表明,比特幣是對全球流動性變化最敏感的資產,83% 的時間都會對流動性變化做出反應。 Pompliano 表示,這使得比特幣比標準普爾 500 指數等傳統市場資產更具反應性。
He emphasized that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are more heavily tied to the flow of liquidity in the market than any other asset class, giving it a unique standing in the current economic environment.
他強調,與任何其他資產類別相比,比特幣的價格波動與市場流動性的關係更為密切,這使其在當前的經濟環境中具有獨特的地位。
Global Liquidity and Bitcoin's Sensitivity
全球流動性和比特幣的敏感性
As Pompliano explained it, the central banks' decisions to inject liquidity into the system have had a profound impact on Bitcoin. "We've just gone through a major regime change," noted Pompliano, referring to the recent transition from a period of monetary tightening to one of monetary easing. With central banks, including the Federal Reserve and others across the globe, injecting liquidity into the market, Bitcoin has become one of the prime beneficiaries of the influx of cheap money.
正如 Pompliano 所解釋的那樣,央行向系統注入流動性的決定對比特幣產生了深遠的影響。 「我們剛剛經歷了一次重大的政權更迭,」龐普里亞諾指出,他指的是最近從貨幣緊縮時期向貨幣寬鬆時期的轉變。隨著包括聯準會和全球其他國家在內的中央銀行向市場注入流動性,比特幣已成為廉價資金湧入的主要受益者之一。
Pompliano highlighted that this period of increasing liquidity, combined with an expanding M2 money supply, is likely to result in continued Bitcoin gains. "Bitcoin should be a big winner here for the next couple of months," he explained. He also pointed out that other central banks, like China's, are also cutting rates and contributing to a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.
Pompliano 強調,這段流動性增加的時期,加上 M2 貨幣供應量的擴大,可能會導致比特幣持續上漲。 「在接下來的幾個月裡,比特幣應該是這裡的大贏家,」他解釋道。他也指出,中國等其他央行也在降息,為比特幣創造更有利的環境。
The Role of ETFs and Institutional Investment
ETF 和機構投資的作用
While Pompliano is confident in Bitcoin's long-term potential, he also acknowledged the complexity of the current market dynamics, particularly with regard to institutional investment via ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). He noted that it's difficult to pinpoint exactly how much of Bitcoin's price movements are influenced by ETF inflows versus direct investments.
儘管 Pompliano 對比特幣的長期潛力充滿信心,但他也承認當前市場動態的複雜性,特別是透過 ETF(交易所交易基金)進行機構投資方面。他指出,很難準確地確定比特幣價格變動在多大程度上受到 ETF 流入與直接投資的影響。
"There's a lot of trading going on," said Pompliano, noting that some investors are taking part in cash-and-carry trades rather than holding Bitcoin for the long term. This distinction is critical, as the behavior of long-term holders versus short-term traders can have varying effects on Bitcoin's price discovery. Despite the influence of traders, Pompliano emphasized that over 50% of Bitcoin remains held in long-term wallets, with holders not moving their Bitcoin on-chain for over a year.
龐普里亞諾表示:「正在進行大量交易。」他指出,一些投資者正在參與現金自利交易,而不是長期持有比特幣。這種區別至關重要,因為長期持有者與短期交易者的行為可能對比特幣的價格發現產生不同的影響。儘管受到交易員的影響,Pompliano 強調,超過 50% 的比特幣仍然保存在長期錢包中,持有者一年多都沒有在鏈上轉移比特幣。
Bitcoin's Relationship with Gold and Other Cryptocurrencies
比特幣與黃金和其他加密貨幣的關係
When asked about Bitcoin's relationship with other assets, particularly gold and Ethereum, Pompliano expressed his belief that Bitcoin is set apart from other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, which he does not personally invest in. While he stopped short of labeling himself a Bitcoin maximalist, he described himself as a “monetary maximalist,” suggesting that he sees Bitcoin as the ultimate winner in the battle for sound money.
當被問及比特幣與其他資產(特別是黃金和以太坊)的關係時,Pompliano 表達了他的信念,即比特幣與其他加密貨幣(包括他個人不投資的以太坊)不同。給自己貼上比特幣最大化主義者的標籤,但他他將自己描述為“貨幣最大化主義者”,這表明他認為比特幣是健全貨幣之戰的最終贏家。
Pompliano is particularly interested in stablecoins as another avenue of growth within the cryptocurrency space. While Bitcoin remains his primary focus, he acknowledged that stablecoins have found significant product-market fit and could play an important role in the future of the digital economy.
Pompliano 對穩定幣特別感興趣,將其作為加密貨幣領域的另一種成長途徑。雖然比特幣仍然是他的主要關注點,但他承認穩定幣已經找到了重要的產品市場契合度,並且可以在數位經濟的未來中發揮重要作用。
Bitcoin's Future in the Face of Monetary Policy
貨幣政策面前比特幣的未來
Anthony Pompliano's outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, particularly as the world's central banks continue to flood markets with liquidity. He suggested that the current macroeconomic conditions are highly favorable for Bitcoin, which has consistently proven its resilience and potential in a world of increasing liquidity.
安東尼·龐普里亞諾(Anthony Pompliano)對比特幣的前景仍然樂觀,特別是在世界各國央行繼續向市場注入流動性的情況下。他表示,當前的宏觀經濟狀況對比特幣非常有利,比特幣在流動性不斷增加的世界中不斷證明了其彈性和潛力。
Pompliano's analysis of Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity highlights why he believes it will continue to outperform other assets in the coming months. According to Pompliano, as the Federal Reserve continues its course of rate cuts and the M2 money supply expands, Bitcoin stands to benefit in ways that traditional assets like gold or oil cannot match. He thinks the central banks' shift from tightening to easing has created a new environment where Bitcoin emerges as the clear frontrunner due to its inherent sensitivity to liquidity.
龐普里亞諾對比特幣對全球流動性敏感度的分析凸顯了為什麼他相信比特幣在未來幾個月將繼續跑贏其他資產。 Pompliano 表示,隨著聯準會繼續降息和 M2 貨幣供應量擴大,比特幣將以黃金或石油等傳統資產無法比擬的方式受益。他認為,央行從緊縮轉向寬鬆創造了一個新的環境,比特幣因其對流動性固有的敏感性而成為明顯的領跑者。
For Pompliano, the key to Bitcoin's future success lies in its ability to respond to changes in global monetary policy. As long as liquidity continues
對Pompliano來說,比特幣未來成功的關鍵在於其應對全球貨幣政策變化的能力。只要流動性持續存在
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