查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）說，到今年年底，比特幣（BTC）的價格可能達到25萬美元

加密市場根本沒有經歷好時光，以至於有關今年剩餘時間的非常積極的預測現在很少。

As usual, there are various forecasts circulating regarding the price of Bitcoin, but these days there is one that is quite surprising, both for its origin and its magnitude.

像往常一樣，關於比特幣價格的各種預測，但是如今，它的起源和大小都令人驚訝。

In fact, the crypto markets are not going through a good time at all, so much so that the very positive forecasts regarding the rest of the year are now few.

實際上，加密貨幣市場根本沒有經歷好時光，以至於現在關於今年剩餘時間的非常積極的預測很少。

However, the price of Bitcoin is actually holding up very well, so much so that it may not have yet compromised its medium/long-term trend.

但是，比特幣的價格實際上非常好，以至於它可能還沒有損害其中/長期趨勢。

The current forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

當前對比特幣價格（BTC）的預測

One of the BTC price forecasts that is sparking the most discussion is the one coming from the founder of the crypto project Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, as well as the co-founder of Ethereum.

BTC價格預測引發了最多的討論，是來自加密貨幣項目Cardano，Charles Hoskinson以及以太坊聯合創始人的創始人。

Hoskinson recently spoke on CNBC’s podcast “Beyond The Valley,” during which he stated that in his opinion Bitcoin could reach $250,000 as early as this year.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）最近在CNBC的播客“超越山谷”上發表了講話，在此期間，他認為比特幣早在今年早些時候就可以達到25萬美元。

The founder of Cardano is well known in the crypto field for his statements that are sometimes unconventional, and even this time, although he hasn’t said anything truly absurd, he goes against the trend.

卡爾達諾（Cardano）的創始人在加密貨幣領域（Crypto Field）眾所周知，他的陳述有時是非常規的，即使這次他沒有說任何真正荒謬的話，但他還是反對這種趨勢。

He stated that there are several factors that could lead to a change in the coming months, including the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies and new regulations.

他說，有幾個因素可能導致未來幾個月的變化，包括越來越多的加密貨幣和新法規的採用。

In particular, he stated that he believes the so-called Magnificent 7, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (formerly Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta (formerly Facebook), and Tesla, will start using stablecoins once dedicated regulations are approved in the USA.

他特別說，他認為所謂的宏偉的7，即蘋果，微軟，字母（以前是Google），亞馬遜，NVIDIA，META（以前是Facebook）和Tesla，一旦在美國批准了專門的法規，就會開始使用StableCoins。

The Interview

採訪

During l’intervista Hoskinson ha detto anche molte altre cose.

在霍斯金森（Hoskinson）採訪中，還說了許多其他事情。

First of all, he defined the issue of tariffs “a fiasco”, because he says that people will realize that the world actually wants to trade, and that it is actually just a matter between the United States and China.

首先，他定義了關稅問題“慘敗”，因為他說人們會意識到世界實際上想交易，而這實際上只是美國和中國之間的問題。

For this reason, it predicts that sooner or later the markets will stabilize a bit and will get used to the new normal. It predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates, and that a lot of money will flow into the crypto markets.

因此，它預測，市場遲早會穩定一些，並且會習慣新的常態。它預測美聯儲將降低利率，並且大量資金將流入加密貨幣市場。

However, he argues that the geopolitical situation is shifting from a rules-based international order to a conflict between major powers.

但是，他認為地緣政治局勢正在從基於規則的國際秩序轉變為主要大國之間的衝突。

The stablecoin

Stablecoin

A very interesting part of his interview is the one that concerns stablecoin.

他的採訪中一個非常有趣的部分是涉及Stablecoin的一部分。

It says that the USA will adopt new specific regulations for stablecoins, and that the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act will probably also be approved, which will help the crypto market.

它說，美國將採用新的特定法規對Stablecoins，並且數字資產市場結構和投資者保護法可能也將獲得批准，這將有助於加密市場。

And indeed the new law on stablecoins could also lead the Magnifiche 7 to adopt these assets, to pay workers in different countries or to facilitate small transactions on their platforms.

實際上，關於穩定幣的新法律也可能導致Maxifiche 7採用這些資產，向不同國家 /地區的工人付款或促進其平台上的小型交易。

All this, according to Hoskinson, will reignite the bull market of cryptocurrencies, even if not immediately.

根據霍斯金森的說法，這一切將重新點燃加密貨幣的牛市，即使不是立即。

He believes it could remain substantially unchanged for another three or five months, but then there will be a huge wave of speculative interest (probably in August or September) that will last for another six or twelve months.

他認為，它可能會在三到五個月的再持續3，五個月內保持不變，但是隨後將持續六個或十二個月的投機性興趣（可能在8月或9月）。

The current situation

當前情況

To understand this scenario, it is necessary to take stock of the current situation.

要了解這種情況，有必要盤點當前情況。

First of all, it must be said that there are no signs of a possible trend reversal in the short term.

首先，必須說，短期內沒有趨勢逆轉的跡象。

Indeed, the phase of difficulty seems that it may continue at least until the end of the month, and it will hardly be immediately followed by a big bull.

確實，困難的階段似乎至少可能持續到本月底，而且幾乎不會立即成為一頭大公牛。

Therefore, the hypothesis of a three-month “halt” for the crypto markets suggested by Hoskinson is actually a fairly widespread opinion among various analysts, and should not be considered at all as an outburst from the founder of Cardano.

因此，霍斯金森建議的加密市場三個月“停頓”的假設實際上是各種分析師之間的廣泛意見，不應完全認為來自Cardano創始人的爆發。

A subsequent recovery of the crypto markets is also a shared hypothesis, although there are strong discrepancies regarding the extent of this recovery.

加密貨幣市場的隨後恢復也是一個共同的假設，儘管關於這種恢復的程度存在很大的差異。

As of today, in fact, there are not many analysts who see Bitcoin at $250,000 by the end of the year, with many having significantly reduced their price forecasts to figures that are considerably lower, even if perhaps higher than the all-time high in January.

截至今天，實際上，到今年年底，沒有多少分析師看到比特幣為25萬美元，其中許多分析師大大降低了其價格預期，即使可能高得多，即使可能高於一月份的歷史最高點。

Another fairly widespread opinion is that in fact the tariff war is only a temporary phase, which on one hand might end up dissolving in the coming weeks, and on the other serves the USA primarily to challenge China.

另一個相當普遍的看法是，實際上，關稅戰爭只是一個臨時階段，一方面可能在接下來的幾週內解散，而另一方面則主要是為了挑戰中國。

The hypothesis of a Fed rate cut is now a shared opinion, so much so that the markets are betting on as many as 4 cuts by the end of the year.

聯邦降低率的假設現在是一種共同的意見，以至於到年底之前，市場押注了多達4次。

Therefore, Hoskinson’s statements fit quite well into the current framework, even if perhaps his prediction is still a bit too optimistic.

因此，霍斯金森的陳述非常適合當前框架，即使他的預測仍然太樂觀了。