查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）说，到今年年底，比特币（BTC）的价格可能达到25万美元

加密市场根本没有经历好时光，以至于有关今年剩余时间的非常积极的预测现在很少。

As usual, there are various forecasts circulating regarding the price of Bitcoin, but these days there is one that is quite surprising, both for its origin and its magnitude.

像往常一样，关于比特币价格的各种预测，但是如今，它的起源和大小都令人惊讶。

In fact, the crypto markets are not going through a good time at all, so much so that the very positive forecasts regarding the rest of the year are now few.

实际上，加密货币市场根本没有经历好时光，以至于现在关于今年剩余时间的非常积极的预测很少。

However, the price of Bitcoin is actually holding up very well, so much so that it may not have yet compromised its medium/long-term trend.

但是，比特币的价格实际上非常好，以至于它可能还没有损害其中/长期趋势。

The current forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

当前对比特币价格（BTC）的预测

One of the BTC price forecasts that is sparking the most discussion is the one coming from the founder of the crypto project Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, as well as the co-founder of Ethereum.

BTC价格预测引发了最多的讨论，是来自加密货币项目Cardano，Charles Hoskinson以及以太坊联合创始人的创始人。

Hoskinson recently spoke on CNBC’s podcast “Beyond The Valley,” during which he stated that in his opinion Bitcoin could reach $250,000 as early as this year.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）最近在CNBC的播客“超越山谷”上发表了讲话，在此期间，他认为比特币早在今年早些时候就可以达到25万美元。

The founder of Cardano is well known in the crypto field for his statements that are sometimes unconventional, and even this time, although he hasn’t said anything truly absurd, he goes against the trend.

卡尔达诺（Cardano）的创始人在加密货币领域（Crypto Field）众所周知，他的陈述有时是非常规的，即使这次他没有说任何真正荒谬的话，但他还是反对这种趋势。

He stated that there are several factors that could lead to a change in the coming months, including the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies and new regulations.

他说，有几个因素可能导致未来几个月的变化，包括越来越多的加密货币和新法规的采用。

In particular, he stated that he believes the so-called Magnificent 7, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (formerly Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta (formerly Facebook), and Tesla, will start using stablecoins once dedicated regulations are approved in the USA.

他特别说，他认为所谓的宏伟的7，即苹果，微软，字母（以前是Google），亚马逊，NVIDIA，META（以前是Facebook）和Tesla，一旦在美国批准了专门的法规，就会开始使用StableCoins。

The Interview

采访

During l’intervista Hoskinson ha detto anche molte altre cose.

在霍斯金森（Hoskinson）采访中，还说了许多其他事情。

First of all, he defined the issue of tariffs “a fiasco”, because he says that people will realize that the world actually wants to trade, and that it is actually just a matter between the United States and China.

首先，他定义了关税问题“惨败”，因为他说人们会意识到世界实际上想交易，而这实际上只是美国和中国之间的问题。

For this reason, it predicts that sooner or later the markets will stabilize a bit and will get used to the new normal. It predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates, and that a lot of money will flow into the crypto markets.

因此，它预测，市场迟早会稳定一些，并且会习惯新的常态。它预测美联储将降低利率，并且大量资金将流入加密货币市场。

However, he argues that the geopolitical situation is shifting from a rules-based international order to a conflict between major powers.

但是，他认为地缘政治局势正在从基于规则的国际秩序转变为主要大国之间的冲突。

The stablecoin

Stablecoin

A very interesting part of his interview is the one that concerns stablecoin.

他的采访中一个非常有趣的部分是涉及Stablecoin的一部分。

It says that the USA will adopt new specific regulations for stablecoins, and that the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act will probably also be approved, which will help the crypto market.

它说，美国将采用新的特定法规对Stablecoins，并且数字资产市场结构和投资者保护法可能也将获得批准，这将有助于加密市场。

And indeed the new law on stablecoins could also lead the Magnifiche 7 to adopt these assets, to pay workers in different countries or to facilitate small transactions on their platforms.

实际上，关于稳定币的新法律也可能导致Maxifiche 7采用这些资产，向不同国家 /地区的工人付款或促进其平台上的小型交易。

All this, according to Hoskinson, will reignite the bull market of cryptocurrencies, even if not immediately.

根据霍斯金森的说法，这一切将重新点燃加密货币的牛市，即使不是立即。

He believes it could remain substantially unchanged for another three or five months, but then there will be a huge wave of speculative interest (probably in August or September) that will last for another six or twelve months.

他认为，它可能会在三到五个月的再持续3，五个月内保持不变，但是随后将持续六个或十二个月的投机性兴趣（可能在8月或9月）。

The current situation

当前情况

To understand this scenario, it is necessary to take stock of the current situation.

要了解这种情况，有必要盘点当前情况。

First of all, it must be said that there are no signs of a possible trend reversal in the short term.

首先，必须说，短期内没有趋势逆转的迹象。

Indeed, the phase of difficulty seems that it may continue at least until the end of the month, and it will hardly be immediately followed by a big bull.

确实，困难的阶段似乎至少可能持续到本月底，而且几乎不会立即成为一头大公牛。

Therefore, the hypothesis of a three-month “halt” for the crypto markets suggested by Hoskinson is actually a fairly widespread opinion among various analysts, and should not be considered at all as an outburst from the founder of Cardano.

因此，霍斯金森建议的加密市场三个月“停顿”的假设实际上是各种分析师之间的广泛意见，不应完全认为来自Cardano创始人的爆发。

A subsequent recovery of the crypto markets is also a shared hypothesis, although there are strong discrepancies regarding the extent of this recovery.

加密货币市场的随后恢复也是一个共同的假设，尽管关于这种恢复的程度存在很大的差异。

As of today, in fact, there are not many analysts who see Bitcoin at $250,000 by the end of the year, with many having significantly reduced their price forecasts to figures that are considerably lower, even if perhaps higher than the all-time high in January.

截至今天，实际上，到今年年底，没有多少分析师看到比特币为25万美元，其中许多分析师大大降低了其价格预期，即使可能高得多，即使可能高于一月份的历史最高点。

Another fairly widespread opinion is that in fact the tariff war is only a temporary phase, which on one hand might end up dissolving in the coming weeks, and on the other serves the USA primarily to challenge China.

另一个相当普遍的看法是，实际上，关税战争只是一个临时阶段，一方面可能在接下来的几周内解散，而另一方面则主要是为了挑战中国。

The hypothesis of a Fed rate cut is now a shared opinion, so much so that the markets are betting on as many as 4 cuts by the end of the year.

联邦降低率的假设现在是一种共同的意见，以至于到年底之前，市场押注了多达4次。

Therefore, Hoskinson’s statements fit quite well into the current framework, even if perhaps his prediction is still a bit too optimistic.

因此，霍斯金森的陈述非常适合当前框架，即使他的预测仍然太乐观了。