比特幣 (BTC) 價格可能在大幅回檔之前上漲至 138,000 美元

BTC 價格再次保持在 90,000 美元以上，短期內 100,000 美元的比特幣似乎觸手可及。但它還能更高嗎？

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that Bitcoin may rise to as much as $138,000 in this cycle and then tank by 30%.

加密貨幣分析師 Ali Martinez 表示，比特幣在這個週期中可能會上漲至 138,000 美元，然後下跌 30%。

Martinez's thoughts, posted on November 19 through X, effectively compare the current and past BTC bull market trends.

馬丁內斯於 11 月 19 日透過 X 發布的想法有效地比較了當前和過去的 BTC 牛市趨勢。

suggest that the answer could be yes, but only after a powerful downturn.

表明答案可能是肯定的，但前提是在經濟嚴重衰退之後。

Bitcoin enjoyed a 156% rally during the 2017 bull run, which was followed by a 39% crash. In 2020, BTC amplified by 121%, which was succeeded by a 32% decline.

比特幣在 2017 年牛市期間上漲了 156%，隨後暴跌 39%。 2020 年，BTC 上漲了 121%，隨後下跌了 32%。

This time, they again proved they were right, and history repeats itself. Bitcoin surpassed its previous high the other day and has accumulated in the region this week.

這一次，他們再次證明自己是對的，歷史又重演了。比特幣前幾天突破了先前的高點，並於本週在該地區累積。

According to Martinez, the next trajectory could be an upswell, or maybe an even higher $138,000, before a consolidation occurs.

馬丁內斯表示，在盤整發生之前，下一個軌跡可能是上漲，或甚至更高 138,000 美元。

“If history repeats, $BTC could reach at least $138,000 before experiencing the first major pullback,” Martinez noted.

馬丁內斯指出：“如果歷史重演，比特幣在經歷第一次大幅回調之前可能會達到至少 138,000 美元。”

This bullish case is supported by more than historical trends. On-chain data adds another layer of excitement. CryptoQuant recently flagged a rare “golden cross” in Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric that measures miner profitability across market cycles.

這種看漲的情況不僅得到歷史趨勢的支持。鏈上數據又增添了一層興奮感。 CryptoQuant 最近在比特幣的 Puell Multiple 中標記了一個罕見的“黃金十字”，這是衡量礦商跨市場週期獲利能力的指標。

This crossover, where the Puell Multiple moves above its 365-day average, has only occurred three times in the past five years. Each time, it signaled massive price rallies for Bitcoin. Could we see a repeat? If history is any guide, the answer is a resounding yes.

這種交叉（即普埃爾本益比高於 365 天平均值）在過去五年中只發生過 3 次。每一次，都預示著比特幣價格的大幅上漲。我們能看到重複嗎？如果以史為鑑的話，答案是肯定的。

External Tailwinds: Trump and Institutions

外部順風：川普與機構

Apart from the charts, external influences are making Bitcoin the extra push at the moment. Crypto markets are abuzz with excitement after the re-election of former President Donald Trump, who has a pro-crypto stance.

除了圖表之外，外部影響正在使比特幣目前成為額外的推動力。在支持加密貨幣的前總統川普連任後，加密貨幣市場充滿了興奮。

Donald Trump has been hosting meetings with crypto industry representatives, including Coinbase’s founder, Brian Armstrong, to brainstorm.

唐納德·川普一直在與包括 Coinbase 創始人布萊恩·阿姆斯特朗在內的加密行業代表舉行會議，進行集思廣益。

Lack of regulatory uncertainty and Trump’s support for digital assets are said to be mainly driving institutional participation. This increasing pace may serve as a positive driving force or ‘momentum’ that carries Bitcoin to its next major phase.

據稱，監管不確定性的缺乏以及川普對數位資產的支持是推動機構參與的主要因素。這種不斷增長的步伐可能會成為推動比特幣進入下一個主要階段的積極驅動力或「動力」。

Still, it’s not all smooth sailing. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought signals, currently at 74.26. That’s a clear warning sign that a pullback could be around the corner.

儘管如此，事情並非一帆風順。比特幣的相對強弱指數（RSI）正在閃爍超買訊號，目前為 74.26。這是一個明顯的警告信號，表明回調可能即將來臨。

If BTC fails to hold above the critical $90,000 level, the price might slip further, potentially undoing some of its recent gains. However, a push to $100,000—or even $138,000—could be within reach if Bitcoin holds steady.

如果 BTC 未能保持在 90,000 美元的關鍵水平之上，價格可能會進一步下滑，從而可能抵消近期的部分漲幅。然而，如果比特幣保持穩定，那麼升至 100,000 美元甚至 138,000 美元是可以實現的。