比特币 (BTC) 价格可能在大幅回调之前上涨至 138,000 美元

BTC 价格再次保持在 90,000 美元以上，短期内 100,000 美元的比特币似乎触手可及。但它还能更高吗？

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that Bitcoin may rise to as much as $138,000 in this cycle and then tank by 30%.

加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 表示，比特币在这个周期中可能会上涨至 138,000 美元，然后下跌 30%。

Martinez's thoughts, posted on November 19 through X, effectively compare the current and past BTC bull market trends.

马丁内斯于 11 月 19 日通过 X 发布的想法有效地比较了当前和过去的 BTC 牛市趋势。

suggest that the answer could be yes, but only after a powerful downturn.

表明答案可能是肯定的，但前提是在经济严重衰退之后。

Bitcoin enjoyed a 156% rally during the 2017 bull run, which was followed by a 39% crash. In 2020, BTC amplified by 121%, which was succeeded by a 32% decline.

比特币在 2017 年牛市期间上涨了 156%，随后暴跌 39%。 2020 年，BTC 上涨了 121%，随后下跌了 32%。

This time, they again proved they were right, and history repeats itself. Bitcoin surpassed its previous high the other day and has accumulated in the region this week.

这一次，他们再次证明自己是对的，历史又重演了。比特币前几天突破了之前的高点，并于本周在该地区积累。

According to Martinez, the next trajectory could be an upswell, or maybe an even higher $138,000, before a consolidation occurs.

马丁内斯表示，在盘整发生之前，下一个轨迹可能是上涨，或者甚至更高 138,000 美元。

“If history repeats, $BTC could reach at least $138,000 before experiencing the first major pullback,” Martinez noted.

马丁内斯指出：“如果历史重演，比特币在经历第一次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少 138,000 美元。”

This bullish case is supported by more than historical trends. On-chain data adds another layer of excitement. CryptoQuant recently flagged a rare “golden cross” in Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric that measures miner profitability across market cycles.

这种看涨的情况不仅仅得到历史趋势的支持。链上数据又增添了一层兴奋感。 CryptoQuant 最近在比特币的 Puell Multiple 中标记了一个罕见的“黄金十字”，这是衡量矿商跨市场周期盈利能力的指标。

This crossover, where the Puell Multiple moves above its 365-day average, has only occurred three times in the past five years. Each time, it signaled massive price rallies for Bitcoin. Could we see a repeat? If history is any guide, the answer is a resounding yes.

这种交叉（即普埃尔市盈率高于 365 天平均水平）在过去五年中只发生过 3 次。每一次，都预示着比特币价格的大幅上涨。我们能看到重复吗？如果以史为鉴的话，答案是肯定的。

External Tailwinds: Trump and Institutions

外部顺风：特朗普和机构

Apart from the charts, external influences are making Bitcoin the extra push at the moment. Crypto markets are abuzz with excitement after the re-election of former President Donald Trump, who has a pro-crypto stance.

除了图表之外，外部影响正在使比特币目前成为额外的推动力。在支持加密货币的前总统唐纳德·特朗普连任后，加密货币市场充满了兴奋。

Donald Trump has been hosting meetings with crypto industry representatives, including Coinbase’s founder, Brian Armstrong, to brainstorm.

唐纳德·特朗普一直在与包括 Coinbase 创始人布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗在内的加密行业代表举行会议，进行集思广益。

Lack of regulatory uncertainty and Trump’s support for digital assets are said to be mainly driving institutional participation. This increasing pace may serve as a positive driving force or ‘momentum’ that carries Bitcoin to its next major phase.

据称，监管不确定性的缺乏以及特朗普对数字资产的支持是推动机构参与的主要因素。这种不断增长的步伐可能会成为推动比特币进入下一个主要阶段的积极驱动力或“动力”。

Still, it’s not all smooth sailing. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought signals, currently at 74.26. That’s a clear warning sign that a pullback could be around the corner.

尽管如此，事情也并非一帆风顺。比特币的相对强弱指数（RSI）正在闪烁超买信号，目前为 74.26。这是一个明显的警告信号，表明回调可能即将来临。

If BTC fails to hold above the critical $90,000 level, the price might slip further, potentially undoing some of its recent gains. However, a push to $100,000—or even $138,000—could be within reach if Bitcoin holds steady.

如果 BTC 未能保持在 90,000 美元的关键水平之上，价格可能会进一步下滑，从而可能抵消近期的部分涨幅。然而，如果比特币保持稳定，那么升至 100,000 美元甚至 138,000 美元是可以实现的。