比特幣（BTC）價格預測：取消貿易戰（還是？）

在周二急劇提高之後，投資者在周三繼續購買風險資產，包括增長股票，技術股和加密貨幣。

Investors continued to buy risk assets on Wednesday, including growth stocks, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies, following a sharp move higher on Tuesday. And as highly correlated assets, it’s no surprise they’re all up in unison today.

在周二急劇提高之後，投資者在周三繼續購買風險資產，包括增長股票，技術股和加密貨幣。作為高度相關的資產，今天他們都齊頭並進就不足為奇了。

The move in crypto is largely because of macroeconomic news, rather than anything about crypto itself. Bitcoin (BTC 0.90%) is up 2.9% since the stock market closed yesterday, Ethereum (ETH 3.90%) is up 5.1%, and Dogecoin (DOGE 0.51%) is up 6.2%.

加密的舉動很大程度上是由於宏觀經濟新聞，而不是關於加密本身的任何事情。由於股票市場昨天關閉，比特幣（BTC 0.90％）上漲了2.9％，以太坊（ETH 3.90％）上漲了5.1％，而Dogecoin（Doge 0.51％）上漲6.2％。

The trade war is called off (or is it?)

貿易戰被取消（還是？）

The speculation today is that tariffs on imports from China will come down in short order after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war with China in the “very near future.”

今天的猜測是，在財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，他預計在“在不久的將來”與中國的貿易戰爭中會有“降級”。

It’s the trade war that has caused concern that the U.S. will go into a recession, and that has caused a decline in Bitcoin and the market overall. But some of those concerns were alleviated today, at least according to the market’s moves.

正是貿易戰引起了人們的擔憂，即美國將陷入衰退，這導致比特幣和總體市場下降。但是，至少根據市場的舉動，今天有些擔憂得到了緩解。

If the trade war is indeed easing and the economy picks up later this year, it could be good for markets, including cryptocurrencies. But that continues to be uncertain given all that’s happened in the past month.

如果貿易戰確實正在放鬆，並且今年晚些時候經濟興起，這可能對包括加密貨幣在內的市場有益。但考慮到過去一個月發生的所有事情，這仍然是不確定的。

Bitcoin’s surge shows where its value is

比特幣的激增顯示其價值在哪裡

What’s notable about Bitcoin’s move today is that it’s correlated with growth and tech stocks, not a hedge against them. Gold, for contrast, is down 3.3% today and was up late last week and early this week when markets were crashing.

比特幣今天的舉動值得注意的是，它與增長和技術股票相關，而不是對樹籬的關聯。相反，黃金今天下跌了3.3％，上週下旬和本周初市場崩潰。

Bitcoin itself doesn’t appear to be an inflation hedge, market hedge, or a store of value in volatile markets. It’s acting like a risk asset, and that’s how investors should expect it to trade.

比特幣本身似乎並不是通貨膨脹對沖，市場對沖或揮發性市場中價值的存儲。它的行為就像風險資產，這就是投資者應該期望其交易的方式。

Ethereum’s and Dogecoin’s future

以太坊和狗狗的未來

While Bitcoin has become a clear risk asset, Ethereum and Dogecoin have more questions around them as the market determines where crypto assets are going long term. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin despite more utility for the blockchain built over the last few years. That’s because Ethereum hasn’t improved its speed or cost of transactions, as blockchains like Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) take market share because of their speed and low costs.

儘管比特幣已成為明顯的風險資產，但以太坊和狗狗幣周圍有更多問題，因為市場決定了加密貨幣資產的長期發展方向。儘管過去幾年建造的區塊鏈的效用更多，但以太坊的表現不大。這是因為以太坊並沒有提高其交易速度或成本，因為諸如Solana（Crypto：Sol）之類的區塊鏈由於其速度和低成本而佔據市場份額。

Dogecoin was the first meme coin, but buying memes is only fun when the market is going up. Dogecoin is down over 50% since post-election highs and is still well below 2021 highs hit during the peak of the market frenzy. Dogecoin will continue to trade like a risk asset, but it’s hard to see its fundamentals improving without a real use case for the token.

Dogecoin是第一個模因硬幣，但是購買模因只有在市場上升時才有趣。自大選後高點以來，多黴素下跌了50％以上，在市場狂潮的高峰期間仍處於2021次高點。 Dogecoin將繼續像風險資產一樣繼續進行交易，但是很難看到它的基本面在沒有真正的用例中而沒有用於代幣的實際用例。

Crypto’s future is bright but tokens face uncertainty

加密的未來是光明的，但令牌面臨不確定性

I see moves like today’s as another sign that the crypto market will continue to be extremely volatile and trade along with assets like growth stocks. But unlike growth stocks, there’s less fundamental value behind these tokens.

我認為像今天這樣的舉動是加密市場將繼續非常波動和貿易以及諸如增長股票之類的資產的另一個跡象。但是與增長股票不同，這些代幣背後的基本價值較小。

Bitcoin’s argument for being a store of value hasn’t proven to be true after falling after tariffs were announced earlier this month. And if inflation spikes, we will likely see Bitcoin fall again.

在本月初宣布關稅後，比特幣關於價值存儲的論點尚未證明是正確的。如果通貨膨脹率飆升，我們可能會看到比特幣再次下降。

Ethereum and Dogecoin continue to have mind share, but as developers and businesses are looking for more use cases for the blockchain they may lose favor. Today’s move looks like a temporary bounce for Ethereum’s and Dogecoin’s declining fortunes long term.

以太坊和狗狗幣繼續有思想分享，但是隨著開發人員和企業正在尋找更多用例以供他們失去的區塊鏈。今天的舉動看起來像以太坊的臨時反彈，長期的命運下降。