比特币（BTC）价格预测：取消贸易战（还是？）

在周二急剧提高之后，投资者在周三继续购买风险资产，包括增长股票，技术股和加密货币。

Investors continued to buy risk assets on Wednesday, including growth stocks, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies, following a sharp move higher on Tuesday. And as highly correlated assets, it’s no surprise they’re all up in unison today.

在周二急剧提高之后，投资者在周三继续购买风险资产，包括增长股票，技术股和加密货币。作为高度相关的资产，今天他们都齐头并进就不足为奇了。

The move in crypto is largely because of macroeconomic news, rather than anything about crypto itself. Bitcoin (BTC 0.90%) is up 2.9% since the stock market closed yesterday, Ethereum (ETH 3.90%) is up 5.1%, and Dogecoin (DOGE 0.51%) is up 6.2%.

加密的举动很大程度上是由于宏观经济新闻，而不是关于加密本身的任何事情。由于股票市场昨天关闭，比特币（BTC 0.90％）上涨了2.9％，以太坊（ETH 3.90％）上涨了5.1％，而Dogecoin（Doge 0.51％）上涨6.2％。

The trade war is called off (or is it?)

贸易战被取消（还是？）

The speculation today is that tariffs on imports from China will come down in short order after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war with China in the “very near future.”

今天的猜测是，在财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，他预计在“在不久的将来”与中国的贸易战争中会有“降级”。

It’s the trade war that has caused concern that the U.S. will go into a recession, and that has caused a decline in Bitcoin and the market overall. But some of those concerns were alleviated today, at least according to the market’s moves.

正是贸易战引起了人们的担忧，即美国将陷入衰退，这导致比特币和总体市场下降。但是，至少根据市场的举动，今天有些担忧得到了缓解。

If the trade war is indeed easing and the economy picks up later this year, it could be good for markets, including cryptocurrencies. But that continues to be uncertain given all that’s happened in the past month.

如果贸易战确实正在放松，并且今年晚些时候经济兴起，这可能对包括加密货币在内的市场有益。但考虑到过去一个月发生的所有事情，这仍然是不确定的。

Bitcoin’s surge shows where its value is

比特币的激增显示其价值在哪里

What’s notable about Bitcoin’s move today is that it’s correlated with growth and tech stocks, not a hedge against them. Gold, for contrast, is down 3.3% today and was up late last week and early this week when markets were crashing.

比特币今天的举动值得注意的是，它与增长和技术股票相关，而不是对树篱的关联。相反，黄金今天下跌了3.3％，上周下旬和本周初市场崩溃。

Bitcoin itself doesn’t appear to be an inflation hedge, market hedge, or a store of value in volatile markets. It’s acting like a risk asset, and that’s how investors should expect it to trade.

比特币本身似乎并不是通货膨胀对冲，市场对冲或挥发性市场中价值的存储。它的行为就像风险资产，这就是投资者应该期望其交易的方式。

Ethereum’s and Dogecoin’s future

以太坊和狗狗的未来

While Bitcoin has become a clear risk asset, Ethereum and Dogecoin have more questions around them as the market determines where crypto assets are going long term. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin despite more utility for the blockchain built over the last few years. That’s because Ethereum hasn’t improved its speed or cost of transactions, as blockchains like Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) take market share because of their speed and low costs.

尽管比特币已成为明显的风险资产，但以太坊和狗狗币周围有更多问题，因为市场决定了加密货币资产的长期发展方向。尽管过去几年建造的区块链的效用更多，但以太坊的表现不大。这是因为以太坊并没有提高其交易速度或成本，因为诸如Solana（Crypto：Sol）之类的区块链由于其速度和低成本而占据市场份额。

Dogecoin was the first meme coin, but buying memes is only fun when the market is going up. Dogecoin is down over 50% since post-election highs and is still well below 2021 highs hit during the peak of the market frenzy. Dogecoin will continue to trade like a risk asset, but it’s hard to see its fundamentals improving without a real use case for the token.

Dogecoin是第一个模因硬币，但是购买模因只有在市场上升时才有趣。自大选后高点以来，多霉素下跌了50％以上，在市场狂潮的高峰期间仍处于2021次高点。 Dogecoin将继续像风险资产一样继续进行交易，但是很难看到它的基本面在没有真正的用例中而没有用于代币的实际用例。

Crypto’s future is bright but tokens face uncertainty

加密的未来是光明的，但令牌面临不确定性

I see moves like today’s as another sign that the crypto market will continue to be extremely volatile and trade along with assets like growth stocks. But unlike growth stocks, there’s less fundamental value behind these tokens.

我认为像今天这样的举动是加密市场将继续非常波动和贸易以及诸如增长股票之类的资产的另一个迹象。但是与增长股票不同，这些代币背后的基本价值较小。

Bitcoin’s argument for being a store of value hasn’t proven to be true after falling after tariffs were announced earlier this month. And if inflation spikes, we will likely see Bitcoin fall again.

在本月初宣布关税后，比特币关于价值存储的论点尚未证明是正确的。如果通货膨胀率飙升，我们可能会看到比特币再次下降。

Ethereum and Dogecoin continue to have mind share, but as developers and businesses are looking for more use cases for the blockchain they may lose favor. Today’s move looks like a temporary bounce for Ethereum’s and Dogecoin’s declining fortunes long term.

以太坊和狗狗币继续有思想分享，但是随着开发人员和企业正在寻找更多用例以供他们失去的区块链。今天的举动看起来像以太坊的临时反弹，长期的命运下降。