比特幣（BTC）價格預測：Polymarket提出了一個激增的機會

2025年第一季度幾乎結束了，很明顯比特幣價格情緒已經完全改變。

The first quarter of 2025 is almost over and it is abundantly clear that Bitcoin price sentiment has completely shifted.

2025年第一季度幾乎結束了，很明顯比特幣價格情緒已經完全改變。

Just a few months ago, there was a lot of optimism that BTC could rally as high as $1 million by the end of 2025.

就在幾個月前，到2025年底，BTC可能會高達100萬美元，這很樂觀。

However, recent predictions by crypto derivatives platform Polymarket highlight a slim chance of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), surging to $1 million.

但是，加密衍生品平台多頭市場的最新預測突出了旗艦加密貨幣（BTC）的較小機會，飆升至100萬美元。

Instead, the predictions suggest a 34% chance of it dropping to $50,000.

相反，這些預測表明，它有34％的機會降至50,000美元。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Polymarket Tips

比特幣價格預測：多聚市場提示

According to the predictions by Polymarket, there is a 4% chance that it could rally to $1 million. The prediction aligns with a gloomier outlook now that the political class has cast a dark cloud on the economy as evident by the recent market crash.

根據Polymarket的預測，它有可能漲到100萬美元的機會4％。既然政治階層已經對經濟造成了烏雲，那麼預測與最近的市場崩潰相吻合。

Interestingly, the market also does not expect Bitcoin prices to dip very low.

有趣的是，市場也不預期比特幣價格會降低。

The predictions highlight a 34% change that BTC will drop to $50,000 before the year.

這些預測突出了34％的變化，即BTC將在今年之前降至50,000美元。

The same platform also predicts a 50% chance that Bitcoin could rally over $120,000.

同一平台還預測，比特幣可能會超過120,000美元。

There have been concerns that Bitcoin’s local top in December may have been a cycle top.

人們擔心比特幣在12月的本地頂級可能是周期的頂級。

These concerns were fueled by the liquidity outflows observed in the market.

這些擔憂是由於市場上觀察到的流動性流出引起的。

Especially on account of the prevailing unfavorable political-economic environment.

特別是由於普遍不利的政治經濟環境。

Bitcoin price performance has been bearish since its January peak and this brings us to the other main reason for the concerns.

比特幣的價格性能自一月的高峰以來一直是看跌，這使我們引起了其他關注的主要原因。

Bitcoin could be on the verge of dipping below a key price resistance line.

比特幣可能處於關鍵價格阻力線以下的邊緣。

BTC’s weekly chart highlights an ascending resistance that previously acted as a peak indicator until price broke through in November last year.

BTC的每週圖表突出了一個上升的阻力，該阻力先前是峰值指標，直到去年11月的價格破裂。

Price has since retraced and the same ascending resistance could now shift into a support level.

此後，價格已經回顧，同樣的上升阻力現在可以轉移到支持水平。

However, many analysts believe that a crossing below the same line could signal that the January peak was a cycle top.

但是，許多分析人士認為，在同一線以下的交叉口可能表明一月峰是周期頂部。

Eyes on the Bitcoin Post-Halving Rally Window

眼睛注視比特幣後的拉力賽窗口

But what if Bitcoin bounces back? How long does the market have until the end of the current cycle?

但是，如果比特幣反彈怎麼辦？市場直到當前週期結束了多長時間？

Historical data reveals that a cycle top occurs 12 to 18 months after each halving.

歷史數據表明，每次減半後12到18個月發生一個循環頂部。

It is now 11 months since the last halving, hence there is about a 7-month window for Bitcoin to achieve another major rally and a cycle top.

自上次減半以來已經有11個月了，因此比特幣要獲得另一個重大集會和周期頂的窗口大約有7個月的窗口。

At least if the latest top in December was not it.

至少如果不是12月的最新頂級，那不是。

Although the possibility of a rally in the coming months aligns with the halving timing, parallels have been drawn between now and the 2021 peak.

儘管在接下來的幾個月中，拉力賽的可能性與減半的時機保持一致，但在現在和2021年峰之間取得了相似之處。

Could price struggle to reach the previous top or will there be a double top just as was the case in 2021?

價格鬥爭能否達到前面的頂部，還是會像2021年一樣擁有雙層頂部？

Institutional and government involvement this time suggests that things could be a bit spicier than they were in the previous rally.

這次的機構和政府參與表明，情況可能比上一次集會要雜交。

Nevertheless, there is a decent chance that Bitcoin price might at its peak this year align with the Polymarket’s prediction.

然而，今年比特幣的價格可能與Polymarket的預測保持一致。