比特币（BTC）价格预测：Polymarket提出了一个激增的机会

2025年第一季度几乎结束了，很明显比特币价格情绪已经完全改变。

The first quarter of 2025 is almost over and it is abundantly clear that Bitcoin price sentiment has completely shifted.

2025年第一季度几乎结束了，很明显比特币价格情绪已经完全改变。

Just a few months ago, there was a lot of optimism that BTC could rally as high as $1 million by the end of 2025.

就在几个月前，到2025年底，BTC可能会高达100万美元，这很乐观。

However, recent predictions by crypto derivatives platform Polymarket highlight a slim chance of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), surging to $1 million.

但是，加密衍生品平台多头市场的最新预测突出了旗舰加密货币（BTC）的较小机会，飙升至100万美元。

Instead, the predictions suggest a 34% chance of it dropping to $50,000.

相反，这些预测表明，它有34％的机会降至50,000美元。

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Polymarket Tips

比特币价格预测：多聚市场提示

According to the predictions by Polymarket, there is a 4% chance that it could rally to $1 million. The prediction aligns with a gloomier outlook now that the political class has cast a dark cloud on the economy as evident by the recent market crash.

根据Polymarket的预测，它有可能涨到100万美元的机会4％。既然政治阶层已经对经济造成了乌云，那么预测与最近的市场崩溃相吻合。

Interestingly, the market also does not expect Bitcoin prices to dip very low.

有趣的是，市场也不预期比特币价格会降低。

The predictions highlight a 34% change that BTC will drop to $50,000 before the year.

这些预测突出了34％的变化，即BTC将在今年之前降至50,000美元。

The same platform also predicts a 50% chance that Bitcoin could rally over $120,000.

同一平台还预测，比特币可能会超过120,000美元。

There have been concerns that Bitcoin’s local top in December may have been a cycle top.

人们担心比特币在12月的本地顶级可能是周期的顶级。

These concerns were fueled by the liquidity outflows observed in the market.

这些担忧是由于市场上观察到的流动性流出引起的。

Especially on account of the prevailing unfavorable political-economic environment.

特别是由于普遍不利的政治经济环境。

Bitcoin price performance has been bearish since its January peak and this brings us to the other main reason for the concerns.

比特币的价格性能自一月的高峰以来一直是看跌，这使我们引起了其他关注的主要原因。

Bitcoin could be on the verge of dipping below a key price resistance line.

比特币可能处于关键价格阻力线以下的边缘。

BTC’s weekly chart highlights an ascending resistance that previously acted as a peak indicator until price broke through in November last year.

BTC的每周图表突出了一个上升的阻力，该阻力先前是峰值指标，直到去年11月的价格破裂。

Price has since retraced and the same ascending resistance could now shift into a support level.

此后，价格已经回顾，同样的上升阻力现在可以转移到支持水平。

However, many analysts believe that a crossing below the same line could signal that the January peak was a cycle top.

但是，许多分析人士认为，在同一线以下的交叉口可能表明一月峰是周期顶部。

Eyes on the Bitcoin Post-Halving Rally Window

眼睛注视比特币后的拉力赛窗口

But what if Bitcoin bounces back? How long does the market have until the end of the current cycle?

但是，如果比特币反弹怎么办？市场直到当前周期结束了多长时间？

Historical data reveals that a cycle top occurs 12 to 18 months after each halving.

历史数据表明，每次减半后12到18个月发生一个循环顶部。

It is now 11 months since the last halving, hence there is about a 7-month window for Bitcoin to achieve another major rally and a cycle top.

自上次减半以来已经有11个月了，因此比特币要获得另一个重大集会和周期顶的窗口大约有7个月的窗口。

At least if the latest top in December was not it.

至少如果不是12月的最新顶级，那不是。

Although the possibility of a rally in the coming months aligns with the halving timing, parallels have been drawn between now and the 2021 peak.

尽管在接下来的几个月中，拉力赛的可能性与减半的时机保持一致，但在现在和2021年峰之间取得了相似之处。

Could price struggle to reach the previous top or will there be a double top just as was the case in 2021?

价格斗争能否达到前面的顶部，还是会像2021年一样拥有双层顶部？

Institutional and government involvement this time suggests that things could be a bit spicier than they were in the previous rally.

这次的机构和政府参与表明，情况可能比上一次集会要杂交。

Nevertheless, there is a decent chance that Bitcoin price might at its peak this year align with the Polymarket’s prediction.

然而，今年比特币的价格可能与Polymarket的预测保持一致。