比特幣（BTC）價格預測：市場提前一個月預測川普會以壓倒性優勢獲勝

對於加密貨幣投資者來說，這是值得紀念的一個月。儘管比特幣尚未突破 10 萬美元大關，但光是 11 月就上漲了 30% 以上

It’s been a month to remember for crypto investors. Even though Bitcoin has yet to cross over the $100k mark, its price is up by more than 30% in November alone. Nearly all of those gains came after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. His pledge to make the US the world’s ‘crypto capital’ paves the way for a crypto-friendly policy now that he’s about to return to the White House. No wonder the crypto community is optimistic.

對於加密貨幣投資者來說，這是值得紀念的一個月。儘管比特幣尚未突破 10 萬美元大關，但光是 11 月就上漲了 30% 以上。幾乎所有這些收益都是在唐納德·川普贏得 2024 年總統大選後實現的。他承諾讓美國成為世界“加密貨幣之都”，為他即將重返白宮的加密貨幣友好政策鋪平了道路。難怪加密社群如此樂觀。

Needless to say, prior to the election we were just as clueless about who the next US President will be as anyone else. The polls showed that the outcome was going to be a coin-toss with each candidate having a roughly 50% chance of winning. So based on politics alone, buying Bitcoin prior to the election would’ve been a 50-50 bet. We don’t like such bets, but we were bullish on BTC anyway. The reason had nothing to do with the election. It was all about Elliott Wave analysis and the message the market was sending days before Trump’s landslide win.

不用說，在選舉之前，我們和其他人一樣對下一任美國總統將是誰一無所知。民調顯示，結果就像擲硬幣一樣，每位候選人獲勝的機會約為 50%。因此，僅基於政治因素，在大選前購買比特幣將是 50:50 的賭注。我們不喜歡這樣的押注，但無論如何我們還是看好比特幣的。原因與選舉無關。這一切都與艾略特波浪分析以及川普壓倒性勝利前幾天市場發出的信息有關。

It was November 3rd, 2024, two days before the election, when we shared this 4h chart with our Elliott Wave Pro subscribers. It revealed a complete w)-x)-y) correction between $73 794 and $49 577. According to the theory, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. In Bitcoin’s case, the preceding trend was clearly to the upside and it seemed to have resumed months ago.

那是 2024 年 11 月 3 日，大選前兩天，我們與 Elliott Wave Pro 訂閱者分享了這張 4 小時圖。它揭示了 73,794 美元至 49,577 美元之間的完整 w)-x)-y) 修正。就比特幣而言，先前的趨勢顯然是向上的，而且似乎在幾個月前就已經恢復了。

The choppy and overlapping recovery from $49 577 looked like a sequence of first and second waves within a larger five-wave impulse. It was therefore marked 1-2-i)-ii)-i-ii, meaning that the most powerful phase of the rally in wave iii of iii) of 3 lied ahead. This led us to conclude that “a path to over $90k can be identified with reasonable Elliott Wave assumptions as long as $58 867 is intact“. Bitcoin was trading below $70k at the time and Kamala Harris still had a decent chance of winning, according to the polls. The updated chart below shows what happened next.

從 49,577 美元開始的震盪且重疊的復甦看起來像是更大的五浪脈衝中的一系列第一浪和第二浪。因此，它被標記為 1-2-i)-ii)-i-ii，這意味著 3 波 iii) 中的 iii 波中最強勁的反彈階段即將到來。這使我們得出結論：「只要 58,867 美元完好無損，就可以透過合理的艾略特波浪假設來確定超過 90,000 美元的路徑」。根據民意調查，當時比特幣的交易價格低於 7 萬美元，卡馬拉哈里斯仍然有很大的獲勝機會。下面更新的圖表顯示了接下來發生的情況。

Trump’s win, which became a reality on November 6th, three days after our analysis, pushed the price over the $80k mark in the week of the election. The Elliott Wave structure of the preceding recovery had warned us that it was unlikely to stop there. $90k was exceeded on November 12th. Ten days later, Bitcoin was on the verge of breaching $100k. The invalidation level at $58 867 was never threatened.

川普的勝利於 11 月 6 日（即我們的分析三天後）成為現實，在選舉當週將價格推高至 8 萬美元大關。先前復甦的艾略特波浪結構警告我們，它不太可能就此止步。 11 月 12 日超出了 9 萬美元。十天後，比特幣即將突破 10 萬美元。 58 867 美元的無效水準從未受到威脅。

This is yet another great example of the market somehow predicting real-life events and developments. We don’t know how it does it, but it is fascinating every time. What matters for traders is that the stage is often set days, weeks, sometimes months in advance. The Elliott Wave patterns are there for everyone to see long before the alleged ’cause’ becomes known. In this case, the stage was set for a big rally in the price of Bitcoin three days before it became a ‘Trump trade’.

這是市場以某種方式預測現實生活事件和發展的另一個很好的例子。我們不知道它是如何做到的，但每次都令人著迷。對交易者來說，重要的是這個階段通常是提前幾天、幾週甚至幾個月就設定好的。早在所謂的「原因」為人所知之前，艾略特波浪模式就已經存在，每個人都可以看到。在這種情況下，比特幣價格在成為「川普交易」的三天前大幅上漲就已經準備好了。