比特币（BTC）价格预测：市场提前一个月预测特朗普会以压倒性优势获胜

对于加密货币投资者来说，这是值得纪念的一个月。尽管比特币尚未突破 10 万美元大关，但仅 11 月份其价格就上涨了 30% 以上

It’s been a month to remember for crypto investors. Even though Bitcoin has yet to cross over the $100k mark, its price is up by more than 30% in November alone. Nearly all of those gains came after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. His pledge to make the US the world’s ‘crypto capital’ paves the way for a crypto-friendly policy now that he’s about to return to the White House. No wonder the crypto community is optimistic.

对于加密货币投资者来说，这是值得纪念的一个月。尽管比特币尚未突破 10 万美元大关，但仅 11 月份其价格就上涨了 30% 以上。几乎所有这些收益都是在唐纳德·特朗普赢得 2024 年总统大选后实现的。他承诺让美国成为世界“加密货币之都”，为他即将重返白宫的加密货币友好政策铺平了道路。难怪加密社区如此乐观。

Needless to say, prior to the election we were just as clueless about who the next US President will be as anyone else. The polls showed that the outcome was going to be a coin-toss with each candidate having a roughly 50% chance of winning. So based on politics alone, buying Bitcoin prior to the election would’ve been a 50-50 bet. We don’t like such bets, but we were bullish on BTC anyway. The reason had nothing to do with the election. It was all about Elliott Wave analysis and the message the market was sending days before Trump’s landslide win.

不用说，在选举之前，我们和其他人一样对下一任美国总统将是谁一无所知。民意调查显示，结果就像掷硬币一样，每位候选人获胜的机会约为 50%。因此，仅基于政治因素，在大选前购买比特币将是 50:50 的赌注。我们不喜欢这样的押注，但无论如何我们还是看好比特币的。原因与选举无关。这一切都与艾略特波浪分析以及特朗普压倒性胜利前几天市场发出的信息有关。

It was November 3rd, 2024, two days before the election, when we shared this 4h chart with our Elliott Wave Pro subscribers. It revealed a complete w)-x)-y) correction between $73 794 and $49 577. According to the theory, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. In Bitcoin’s case, the preceding trend was clearly to the upside and it seemed to have resumed months ago.

那是 2024 年 11 月 3 日，即大选前两天，我们与 Elliott Wave Pro 订阅者分享了这张 4 小时图。它揭示了 73,794 美元至 49,577 美元之间的完整 w)-x)-y) 修正。根据理论，一旦修正结束，先前的趋势就会恢复。就比特币而言，之前的趋势显然是向上的，而且似乎在几个月前就已经恢复了。

The choppy and overlapping recovery from $49 577 looked like a sequence of first and second waves within a larger five-wave impulse. It was therefore marked 1-2-i)-ii)-i-ii, meaning that the most powerful phase of the rally in wave iii of iii) of 3 lied ahead. This led us to conclude that “a path to over $90k can be identified with reasonable Elliott Wave assumptions as long as $58 867 is intact“. Bitcoin was trading below $70k at the time and Kamala Harris still had a decent chance of winning, according to the polls. The updated chart below shows what happened next.

从 49,577 美元开始的震荡且重叠的复苏看起来像是更大的五浪脉冲中的一系列第一浪和第二浪。因此，它被标记为 1-2-i)-ii)-i-ii，这意味着 3 波 iii) 中的 iii 波中最强劲的反弹阶段即将到来。这使我们得出结论：“只要 58,867 美元完好无损，就可以通过合理的艾略特波浪假设来确定超过 9 万美元的路径”。根据民意调查，当时比特币的交易价格低于 7 万美元，卡马拉·哈里斯仍然有很大的获胜机会。下面更新的图表显示了接下来发生的情况。

Trump’s win, which became a reality on November 6th, three days after our analysis, pushed the price over the $80k mark in the week of the election. The Elliott Wave structure of the preceding recovery had warned us that it was unlikely to stop there. $90k was exceeded on November 12th. Ten days later, Bitcoin was on the verge of breaching $100k. The invalidation level at $58 867 was never threatened.

特朗普的胜利于 11 月 6 日（即我们的分析三天后）成为现实，在选举当周将价格推高至 8 万美元大关。之前复苏的艾略特波浪结构警告我们，它不太可能就此止步。 11 月 12 日超出了 9 万美元。十天后，比特币即将突破 10 万美元。 58 867 美元的无效水平从未受到威胁。

This is yet another great example of the market somehow predicting real-life events and developments. We don’t know how it does it, but it is fascinating every time. What matters for traders is that the stage is often set days, weeks, sometimes months in advance. The Elliott Wave patterns are there for everyone to see long before the alleged ’cause’ becomes known. In this case, the stage was set for a big rally in the price of Bitcoin three days before it became a ‘Trump trade’.

这是市场以某种方式预测现实生活事件和发展的又一个很好的例子。我们不知道它是如何做到的，但每次都令人着迷。对于交易者来说，重要的是这个阶段通常是提前几天、几周甚至几个月就设定好的。早在所谓的“原因”为人所知之前，艾略特波浪模式就已经存在，每个人都可以看到。在这种情况下，比特币价格在成为“特朗普交易”的三天前大幅上涨就已经做好了准备。