比特幣（BTC）價格預測：當前下降到上升渠道以下會導致看跌突破嗎？

在我們先前對比特幣價格的分析（4月4日）中，我們：

In our previous analysis of Bitcoin’s price (dated 4 April), we:

在我們先前對比特幣價格的分析（4月4日）中，我們：

* outlined a long-term ascending channel (marked by blue lines);

*概述了一個長期升渠道（以藍線為標記）；

* noted signs suggesting a potential bearish breakout below the channel’s lower boundary.

*指出的跡象表明，在通道下邊界以下下方可能存在潛在的看跌突破。

Since then, bears indeed managed to push the price (as shown by the arrow) below the channel’s lower line – driven by a broader sell-off in risk assets amid mounting concerns over a global recession, fuelled by trade wars and the introduction of international tariffs.

從那時起，熊確實設法推動了頻道下部線以下的價格（如箭頭所示），這是由於貿易戰和國際關稅引起的全球經濟衰退的越來越多的危機驅動。

But what does the BTC/USD chart tell us today?

但是BTC/USD圖表今天告訴我們什麼？

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD Today

BTC/USD的技術分析

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So far, bears have failed to capitalise on the break below support. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trading above the former breakout level, which may suggest that bulls are regaining control. If the previous bearish breakout was indeed false, this raises the possibility of a genuine breakout above resistance (marked by line R). This scenario would pave the way for a continuation of the long-term uptrend on the BTC/USD chart and reinforce the relevance of the ascending channel – as highlighted by a divergence on the RSI indicator.

到目前為止，熊還沒有利用低於支持的休息時間。目前，比特幣的價格正在超過以前的突破水平，這可能表明公牛正在恢復控制。如果以前的看跌突破確實是錯誤的，那麼這會使真正的突破超過阻力（以r線為標誌）。這種情況將為BTC/USD圖表上的長期上升趨勢的延續並增強上升渠道的相關性鋪平道路 - 正如RSI指標的分歧所強調的那樣。

Will the bullish scenario play out? Much will depend on the underlying fundamentals. It’s worth noting that the ongoing crisis in the US bond market (linked to Trump’s tariff policies) could create a favourable backdrop for further bullish momentum. Or, in the words of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in a post on X, it may signal the start of “only up” mode for Bitcoin’s price.

看漲的場景會發揮作用嗎？很大程度上取決於基本的基本面。值得注意的是，美國債券市場正在進行的危機（與特朗普的關稅政策有關）可能會為進一步看漲的動力創造一個有利的背景。或者，用Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的文章中的帖子中的帖子，它可能以比特幣的價格表示“僅”模式的開始。

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